Before and during covid I was head or analytics for a Fortune 500 company. I was in charge of the team that tracked a host of information and did analysis, pipeline, revenue, sales effectiveness, social, engineering effectiveness, among many others. It was clearly evident after a couple months into COVID that there were drastic changes in productivity almost all for the negative. Bugs increased, KLOC decreased, milestones slipped, entire releases were cancelled and merged because it would have been embarrassing to announce releases with almost no updates. We brought this up to management and we were first told to double check everything and explore metrics that looked good. After we did that and found little positive we were told to bury it all while the CEO was praising how effective everyone was working from home. Post vaccine the company quickly switched to a limited model encouraging certain groups to return, until they shifted into almost a full return to office hybrid work mode, x days in y days home. It was at that time they decided to start eliminating huge swaths of people it was determined did almost nothing during lockdown and now that they were identified appeared to do only slightly more at the office. We saw a marked improvement in productivity for many return to office people.
The net is people fell into a few groups maintain/slightly up in productivity at home vs work, dropped significantly between office and home (the largest cohort), and didn't seem to really do anything ever. So my view is some people work fine from home, I've been working from home for almost 20 years. The largest group really needs an office to keep them on task, and the last group just does nothing, ever, ( which looked to be about 20% and half of them were cut), after which our total productivity and per employee productivity went up significantly.
I compared notes with analytics wonks in other companies with whom we frequently exchange ideas and offer help and they all saw numbers that told similar stories and were told to keep it hush. Some other things we found/thoughts:
Most companies can probably cut 30% of their staff and productivity would go up.
Most people put in far fewer then 40 hours.
The number putting in 50-60, is very low.
The number of people that look to be working multiple jobs was SO much higher then I ever thought.
The number of people constantly looking for new jobs was SO much higher then I ever thought.
The amount of stuff people do on their work laptops, where we can see and track most everything is painfully high.