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Comment Re:No surprises (Score 1) 29

The PRC is clearly doing research on it:
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ab...

Q. Wu, Y. Li, X. Liu and Q. Wang, "The Possibility of Using 193 NM Immersion Lithography Process For 5 NM Logic Design Rules," 2023 China Semiconductor Technology International Conference (CSTIC), Shanghai, China, 2023, pp. 1-4, doi: 10.1109/CSTIC58779.2023.10219265.

Comment Geez (Score 4, Interesting) 148

"But less advanced DUV models can be retooled with deposition and etching gear to produce 7-nanometer and possibly even more advanced chips, according to industry analysts."
The cat was out of the bag at this point. The Chinese have had the machines able to do 7nm for years. So it was only a matter of time until they did it. The same ASML litho machines which are sold to do 45nm can do 7nm. As for the deposition and etching tools the Chinese can make those themselves already.
The fact that people like Eric Schmitt thought this could be reversed using sanctions to then stop China from making FinFET chips with such cockamamie rules is what is risible.

They should have stuck to the ban on EUV litho instead of trying to get creative.

Breaking support for tools you already sold and allowed them to use is going to lead to a massive trade war. And they will just either make their own tools or figure out how to maintain them themselves eventually.

"The process is much more expensive than using EUV, making it very difficult to scale production in a competitive market environment. In China, however, the government is willing to shoulder a significant portion of chipmaking costs."
Is it? TSMC used just DUV to make its initial 7nm process. And Intel still only uses DUV machines too. They make 7nm processors. This is just pure cope.

The fact that Huawei increased its profits should be pretty much indicative. Do they think the factory is losing money on each order? The factory is a private company as well.

"Chinese companies have been legally stockpiling DUV gear for years — especially after the U.S. introduced its initial export controls last year before getting Japan and the Netherlands on board... According to an investor presentation published by the company last week, ASML experienced a jump in business from China this year as chipmakers there boosted orders ahead of the export controls taking full effect in 2024. China accounted for 46% of ASML's sales in the third quarter, compared with 24% in the previous quarter and 8% in the three months ending in March."

The Chinese are currently building a lot of factories. There is a lot of pent up demand for older chips in China to make consumer electronics and electric cars. Some this construction was decided when there was a shortage of legacy chips during the lockdowns. Plus, now that the US started sanctioning the sale of certain chips, there is no telling when they will do the same for essential older chips as well. So the Chinese industry is massively accelerating design of Chinese chips. Something the Chinese government had been trying to do since the 1990s with limited success.

"Another article from Bloomberg includes this prediction:
The U.S. won't be able to stop Huawei and SMIC from making progress in chip technology, Burn J. Lin, a former Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. vice president, told Bloomberg News. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp should be able to advance to the next generation at 5 nanometers with machines from ASML Holding NV that it already operates, said Lin, who at TSMC championed the lithography technology that transformed chipmaking."

The man himself says it. The Chinese can do 5nm if they want to.

Comment Re:That was then (Score 1) 51

XScale was bought from Digital Equipment Corporation. Back then it was called StrongARM. Intel never quite knew what to do with it despite it selling reasonably well in PDAs like the Compaq iPAQ and others at one point. Then Apple came to Intel, which was their CPU vendor for desktops, and asked them to make a CPU for the iPhone. And Intel refused. Only to later try to make downscaled x86 versions for Android smartphones which no one wanted to buy. So it is that we get here.

Comment Nokia could still have been around as a player (Score 2) 119

Had Elop never been the CEO. Maybe Maemo would have had a chance.
Fact is, Nokia had decided to use Qt as the library to write applications for. And it ran on both Symbian and Maemo. So application developers had a migration path. Plus Maemo was a pretty decent OS when it came out. It still is ok.

Instead we got Windows Phone where they broke compatibility with prior apps not once, but thrice.

Thanks a lot Microsoft.

Comment Re: Russia did it (Score 0) 88

The Russians spent billions building those pipelines. They financed like 50% of their construction. And if they wanted to cut the gas supply they just needed to close the taps. Why bother destroying the pipelines.

I think it is fairly clear who sabotaged Nord Stream. Just follow the money. Who earned the most from the closure of Nord Stream? Who said that Nord Stream wouldn't stay operational if Russia attacked Ukraine?

It is pretty obvious the US blew up Nord Stream 1/2. And it is pretty obvious the Russians blew up this Finnish pipeline.

Comment Re:Multiple possible interpretations here. (Score 1) 13

Among others, it's been accused of being a Taiwanese chip that they bought a bunch of just before the sanctions went into effect, or a South Korean chip that they can't continue to obtain long term without the ongoing cooperation of the relevant Korean company.

That is impossible. The Kirin 9000S uses the Cortex A510 core which was developed by ARM Cambridge after the US sanctions. And people have analyzed the chips with a microscope, they use their own process.

Comment This is just economics (Score 5, Informative) 159

China today is a huge consumer economy. Largest relatively uniform group of consumers in the world. With vast spending power. So is it that surprising that companies are showing up to create products specific to that market? And that they manufacture those products in China? Using Chinese components?

Then there is the vast state support that the Chinese government, both central and local, gives for building an electronics fab. You might claim those are market distorting subsidies. But other countries in the Far East like Singapore have similar policies. And now the US has the CHIPS Act. Which even forces companies which sign up for it to abandon the idea of opening new fabs in China altogether. If China went to the WTO with a court case on that I can bet on who would win. None of the Chinese incentives are anti-competitive like that.

Chinese fabs had grown their clientele portfolio quite a bit. SMIC for example raised cash on the Chinese stock market to fund expansion into newer processes. However the US torpedoed that expansion by denying China the acquisition of EUV machines. The thing is a leading edge EUV fab costs like 2x the price of an older generation DUV fab. Which the US also denied them buying machines for. And 28nm DUV fabs are probably like 4x cheaper than EUV. So with all that cash from the stock market guess what SMIC is plowing their money into? Instead of building a single EUV fab they are building four DUV ones for 28nm.

The US now claims the market for old chips is saturated. But yet just last year everyone was talking about the lack of older generation chips, and that there weren't enough old chips to make cars, etc. Everyone is now building fabs for older chips. China, Japan, Taiwan, Europe, and the US. Also, by threatening to cut China from Western chips entirely, the US just gave the Chinese economy the extra push to vastly expand their own facilities as quickly as possible. So the US government is just reaping what they sowed.

As for the notion they can stop the Chinese from making 28nm chips. Good luck with that. In two years tops the Chinese will be able to make their own machine tools, and they won't even need to buy them from the West anymore. The US is like 10 years too late to this party. If they wanted to cut China from chips then they are just way too late.

And China can retaliate to Western sanctions on chips in several ways. The US does not even know what shit they put themselves into. Nearly all the PCBs today are made in China. A significant amount of the world's DRAM and NAND is also made there. Plus several critical materials. The US is quite lucky the Chinese did not decide to pay them back in kind yet.

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