Comment Re:Nope... (Score 1) 209
Yeah, you can do a shitload of engineering to figure out the right size of a heat pump system that will just barely keep you warm 99% of the time. Or you can just use a (perhaps dual-stage) gas furnace which will have plenty of capacity.
The house being "not properly insulated" is pretty much a given for most older houses. Newer houses... well, I don't care how much R-49 you have in your attic or R-23 in your walls, your windows are R-5 maximum, and probably less. And that's assuming no air leaks. Maybe your house was built tight, but most likely after a few years of thermal cycling, weather, animals, and perhaps modifications, it'll be a lot looser, probably in diffuse ways which are hard to fix. Which means your engineered-to-a-T just barely adequate heating system is now inadequate. And unfortunately with heat pumps, oversizing isn't good either, as it increases cycling and reduces efficiency.