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Comment That's not how the numbers work (Score 1) 376

If a candidate wins an election with 53 percent of the vote, that would be a decisive victory. If a probability model gives a candidate a 53 percent chance of winning, that means that if we ran simulations of the election 100 times, that candidate would win 53 times and the opponent 47 times -- almost equal odds.

That's a bad comparison. A probability model would actually report something more like: There is a 90% probability that the candidate will get between 51% and 55% of the vote. A 90% probability of victory should absolutely not be interpreted to mean it's predicting the candidate will get 90% of the vote.

Comment Re: If nothing else it shows (Score 3, Insightful) 220

The concept of the government being able to dictate where you can move about, for a risk this small, is sickening.

There's something sickening, but travel restrictions aren't it.

It works on two levels, get it? It's an insult - implying that your opinion is sickening - and it's describing the virus, which is sickening millions of people worldwide.

Comment Re:already out of date (Score 1) 220

It's unfortunate that so many died from this disease, but this experience taught us who is vulnerable and who is not, what treatments work better than others, and (again it is unfortunate these people died) those that died cleared the population of those most likely to spread the disease.

Have you seen evidence that those who die from it are also most likely to spread it to others? Because I haven't seen anyone claiming that.

If we assume the elderly and compromised will die from the same level of infection that a young, healthy person would recover from, I would expect those young, healthy people to be out and about more than the elderly both before and after they show symptoms. So those who survive would be most likely to spread it.

I'd be happy to see good research saying the opposite.

Comment Re:What EXACTLY did we expect? (Score 1) 103

But the height of wastefulness has to be Amazon. Today, I received four packages. One was a factory shipping box from a third-party seller. Amazon could easily have put the other three into a single cardboard box, but instead, they shipped one in a paper wrapper and the other two in separate plastic bubble mailers. Why!?!?!

I've thought about this when receiving multiple boxes at once. I'm betting the items didn't all originate at the same fulfillment center. They each need their own box to get to the final shipping location. At that point, why would you spend the time to repackage them?

Comment Re:Cases Cases Cases! (Score 2) 445

Hitler believed the technique was used by Jews to blame Germany's loss in World War I on German general Erich Ludendorff, who was a prominent nationalist and antisemitic political leader in the Weimar Republic.

Hitler claimed the technique was used by Jews. We have no way to know what he actually believed.

Comment Re:I don't care even a little about "case counts" (Score 1) 402

Sure! It's as easy as getting our two rival political gangs to stop slinging shit at each other, come together and agree to spend trillions of dollars on the commoners instead of enriching their own lives and feeding their true masters, The Donor Class.

thatsthejoke.gif

One last thing; no one, has this virus "under control". NO ONE. Nothing is "well understood" other than perhaps some treatments that are helping this a little.

I guess you haven't heard of New Zealand.

Comment Re:Maybe Their Time Has Come (Score 1) 104

No one saved the drive-ins either.

Drive-ins have undeniably the worst movie-watching experience. The screens aren't nearly as good, and they all suffer from light pollution. The sound is whatever you've got in your car. The food is no better than an indoor cinema and often much worse. The weather is unpredictable. The seats can be good, if you deck out the back of your station wagon or minivan appropriately.

But they have social aspects you just can't get at home or at an indoor theater. I've gone to drive-ins where we could show up an hour before showtime with 5 carloads of people, set up a grill and have a cookout before the show. There are still some that have a playground up by the screen. And of course there's date night in the back row if that's what you're into. And all these options are available to different guests at the same time. It's as private or as communal as you want it to be.

Indoor theaters have a better sound system than I'll ever have at home. That's the whole list in their favor.

Comment Re:I don't care even a little about "case counts" (Score 2) 402

And now it is your logic that is flawed, since you cannot tell me just how many deaths have been indirectly caused by excessive lockdowns and shuttering of entire industries and millions of jobs worldwide.

Not precisely, but there are numbers if you care to look.

NEARLY 300,000 MORE Americans died from late January to early October than expected during an average year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found in a report published Tuesday.

The majority of the excess deaths – 66% – are due to the coronavirus, the report found.

So we're talking about ~100,000 excess deaths possibly caused by the lockdown. But can we tell if they're caused by the pandemic or by the lockdown? From that same source:

"These disproportionate increases among certain racial and ethnic groups are consistent with noted disparities in COVID-19 mortality," the report said.

The report had several limitations, including the possibility that "estimates of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19 might underestimate the actual number directly attributable to COVID-19, because deaths from other causes might represent misclassified COVID-19–related deaths or deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic."

So these excess deaths may be caused by the lockdown, but they are demographically similar to what you would expect from missed diagnosis of COVID-19 as the cause.

We have managed to largely avoid that many excessive deaths, but that only lasts as long as government checks keep flowing during a pandemic.

That makes it easy then. Keep the government checks flowing - we can easily afford them - while at the same time taking measures to actually get the pandemic under control. And those measures are by now well understood from watching other countries that have done it.

Comment Re:Not a bad idea. If you get Tesla to tell people (Score 1) 95

Also, then you have something dangling off your phone all the time.

If I'm sitting in a seat not moving and the phone is plugged in, what difference does it make whether it's plugged in to a brick in my bag or an outlet in the wall?

Why not just have a bigger battery in the phone?

Sure, that would be great. Tell me where I can find one.

Comment Re:The things people care about (Score 2) 44

Its interesting that while many people are happy to post all sorts of details about their lives on FB, easily attached to their real identity, many are concerned about possible nude or pornographic videos, that I have to imagine would be almost impossible to associate with an actual identity.

Maybe you're not familiar with this thing that's typically used to associate identity: a face.

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