What happens when interest levels out and becomes a constant? Will the value of the bitcoin also flatten, or will it crash?
This is very straight forward , because consistent usage and purchasing from the same group of people simply would mean the price would on average roughly double every 4 years due to bitcoin being disinflationary. whether or not this will continue after 2140 is another matter because there would need to be enough transaction volume to sustain Bitcoins security model.
the less inclined I am to consider it a good investment.
This instinct is healthy because assets/currencies that appreciate too quickly should make you skeptical. The only issue here is this is not the first bull market cycle of Bitcoin. There have been many. So its worth investigating why this keeps occurring
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A good currency is a stable currency that buys a loaf of bread for the same number next week as it did last week
It is fair to criticize Bitcoin as having poor UX, being difficult to understand by many people, and being volatile. You are 100% correct that being a stable unit of account is critical to having a useful currency. This isn't the only important quality of a currency however= fungibility, divisibility, scarcity, Durability, acceptability, and Cognizability are all other important aspects that make a good currency. Bitcoin excels in some of these other qualities which is why it has a inelastic demand specifically as a currency and has a circular economy of people who depend upon it as a currency regardless of this volatility. we expect in time as liquidity improves , volatility will drop but this is still an experiment in progress.
Bitcoin can't be spent in any meaningful way, so it is not valuable as a currency. Bitcoin only has value because someone out there will exchange other currencies for Bitcoin.
You are correct insomuch as stability for a less volatile unit of account is a very important quality, among others, that make for a useful currency and Bitcoin is far more volatile than most fiat currencies which make it more difficult to use in some aspects than many fiat currencies. One distinction though is because Bitcoin has better fungibility digitally, it has a inelastic demand specifically as a currency and has a circular economy of people who depend upon it as a currency regardless of this volatility.
but that small set of transactions doesn't scale.
You aren't supposed to make day to day transactions onchain. These are supposed to be made offchain, in sidechains, statechains, and payment channels. Bitcoin already does scale quite nicely.
If you try, then the supply of crypto vastly out strips the demand, and the price falls (like a bank run except no one will bail out Bitcoin).
Volatility is not due to merchants insta-selling BTC for fiat but large speculators day trading. Even someone buying an exotic car has no effect because there is far more buy limit support than a couple million dollars of BTC being dumped for fiat.
Worse, the very structure of Bitcoin forces constant conversion to regular currencies vis-a-vis miners have to pay for their costs somehow, and even if their suppliers accept crypto, the suppliers are promptly selling the crypto to get real currencies. This puts massive downward pressure on the bitcoin exchange rate.
This is correct. At the price of 7k USD current inflation to secure the network requires ~12.6 million USD each day. If the price remains the same in 2020 this will drop to ~6.3 million USD daily, although its more likely we will see more appreciation next year which means the cost of security will be higher. (After next halving 900 BTC daily x value of BTC in fiat or gold) in resources spent to secure the network.
I would suggest fiat costs far more to secure than Bitcoin per value transferred, but this is a very complex calculation to perform(on the fiat side) and more research is needed
they cant stop. If they ever do stop, then Bitcoin is officially dead.
One key aspect is efficient miners will always remain profitable(except for rare short term events) because mining difficulty adjusts dynamically up and down.
Math is like love -- a simple idea but it can get complicated. -- R. Drabek