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Comment Re:Unexpected (Score 2, Interesting) 1141

Oregon is that a lot of it is nature. With animals. Real animals. That will eat you .

... we had a pack of coyotes hunting the area ... When I hike, I regularly come across bear and cougar tracks and cougar kills.

Take in mind that I live in Alaska when I say that you guys are fucking pansies. Wild animal attacks are rare, even here and much more so in Oregon. No cougar has eaten a human in Oregon. Nor for coyotes.Likewise for bears. Meanwhile, Alaska, a state with a fifth the number of residents had 10 fatal bear attacks in the last 30 years. Oregon does not have "Real animals, that will eat you".

Comment Re:trust authority? (Score 1) 239

Authoritative scientists told us that margarine was better for us than butter; in that miscegenation laws were necessary for public health; and that electromagnetic waves were not quantized (Bohr's school said this) and that they were vibrations of a luminiferous aether (most textbooks said this, decades after Einstein published relativity). All of those claims turned out to be false.

Granted, scientists have been wrong. However, most often we arrive closer to the truth than we were before. The luminiferous aether was not correct, but it was more correct than the idea that light was only a particle because it explains interference and the double slit experiment. In comparison to other contemporary sources, I would think that scientists have been less wrong than any other group. Who would have disputed the luminiferous aether besides other scientists?

Unless you are going to become an expert in a field, when you don't know enough to interpret the raw data you must trust those who can rather than those who cannot. We do need experts who can question the status quo, but no-one can be an expert in every field. That said, you can check for scientific misconduct which will help you know which scientists to trust.

When people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.

Issac Asimov

Comment Re:iraq ii was unfinished business (Score 1) 659

if bush i in iraq i had decided to push on to baghdad and topple saddam in the early 1990s after racing across the desert unimpeded, then the world would have seen that as justified

George H. W. Bush

Trying to eliminate Saddam, extending the ground war into an occupation of Iraq, would have violated our guideline about not changing objectives in midstream, engaging in "mission creep," and would have incurred incalculable human and political costs. Apprehending him was probably impossible. We had been unable to find Noriega in Panama, which we knew intimately. We would have been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in effect, rule Iraq. The coalition would instantly have collapsed, the Arabs deserting it in anger and other allies pulling out as well. Under the circumstances, there was no viable "exit strategy" we could see, violating another of our principles. Furthermore, we had been self-consciously trying to set a pattern for handling aggression in the post-Cold War world. Going in and occupying Iraq, thus unilaterally exceeding the United Nations' mandate, would have destroyed the precedent of international response to aggression that we hoped to establish. Had we gone the invasion route, the United States could conceivably still be an occupying power in a bitterly hostile land. It would have been a dramatically different — and perhaps barren — outcome.

Comment Re:Any Fair Tax Supporters? (Score 1) 374

Source

The result is a tax system that exempts almost half the country from paying for programs that benefit everyone, including national defense, public safety, infrastructure and education. It is a system in which the top 10 percent of earners -- households making an average of $366,400 in 2006 -- paid about 73 percent of the income taxes collected by the federal government.

The bottom 40 percent, on average, make a profit from the federal income tax, meaning they get more money in tax credits than they would otherwise owe in taxes. For those people, the government sends them a payment.

What you say is true, however there is a Caveat

The vast majority of people who escape federal income taxes still pay other taxes, including federal payroll taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare, and excise taxes on gasoline, aviation, alcohol and cigarettes. Many also pay state or local taxes on sales, income and property.

For example, Social Security and Medicare are 15.3% of your income (until you hit the cap for social security).

Comment Re:Yes, you can trust me, I'm a professor (Score 1) 895

Please explain the mechanism.

One such mechanism is that you can choose the researchers you fund. Then, results that jive with your purpose will be over-represented. I'm not saying that such a thing is happening here, because I don't think that there is enough funding to skew results in favor of AGW, but we should remember that cigarette companies planted uncertainty in the danger associated with smoking. Eventually the more correct result does reign I think, but there are advantages to lengthening the period of uncertainty.

Comment Re:Easier for denialists (Score 1) 895

That's 887 Km^2/habitant

Given that the sun radiates in all directions, and not all of its radiation is captured by earth...

Sun to the Earth: 1.49*10^8 Km

Diameter of Earth: 1.27562*10^4 Km

Surface area of sphere with radius from the Sun to the Earth: 2.7899*10^17 Km^2

Cross section of Earth: 1.278*10^8 Km^2

Only 4.581 * 10^-10 of the Sun's radiation reaches Earth. Therefore, if each bit of radiation the sun emitted were captured by earth, there would be 0.406 m^2 of surface per person. That's still quite a bit of super-hot material, but not quite as outrageous as you claimed.

Even so, it doesn't matter how much of the sun is shining on each part of the earth, but rather the change in the radiation. Furthermore, humans affect how much of the radiation is retained; we do not heat the planet by leaving our space heaters on too long.

Comment Re:I see a lot of denial in this post (Score 1) 917

AT&T Two months ago

In those recent drive tests, AT&T's network dropped only 1.44 percent of calls nationwide, within two-tenths of 1 percent of the industry leader and a difference of less than two calls out of 1,000.

The usual caveats apply, where this information is in aggregate. I don't know whether smartphones generally have a different dropped call rate because of usage patterns. I think that instead of measuring dropped calls they should measure dropped calls per hour of talk time, which would help normalize the data. For example, I only use my cell phone for calls that are under a minute or two.

Even so, this is far better than this old story where iPhones in NY had a 30% drop rate.

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