After six months of Steven Elop Nokia was still increasing its smartphone sales lead over Apple. Symbian increased to 32% of all mobile browsing in mid 2011 so the future of the mobile web looked completely different from today. Android's lead in mobile was not yet settled. There was everything to play for. Two years later even Nokia's official numbers show them selling fewer smartphones in a quarter than Apple has sold in a single day; Nokia had it's first Christmas ever with smartphone sales lower than RIM's; Nokia's shares, even after a dead cat bounce to almost 5 Euro, are worth less than a third of their peak early in Elop's term (below 10% of Nokia's historic highs), a 40 Billion Euro loss for Nokia shareholders. In response Tommi Ahonen's blog is running a series analyzing the causes behind what he shows is the mobile "world record in market collapse". Probably the best place to start, Tommi Ahonen's simplest posting, compares Elop's promises with Nokia's current reality and Analysts predictions for it's old strategy.
Tommi explains the Elop Effect, a new part of the financial vocabulary, has now joined the Ratner Effect and Osborne Effect as examples of CEO communication errors which destroy businesses. The definition, not yet 100% stable, is a willful badmouthing of your own companies most successful products combined with no plan B during a misjudged change of technical direction ("when you combine Osborne Effect and Ratner Effect"). Tommi shows that this turns out to be much stronger than Ratner or Osborne's accidents could ever be. In Tommi's latest posting he covers how the Elop Effect lead to a failed migration claiming that "Only one in 14 attempts to transition to Lumia has succeeded" and points out that two thirds of Windows Phone users are looking to change system for their next phone. If true it looks as if Nokia's rumored move to Android or even a redirection to concentrate on software and services would require deposing Elop whilst their prospects for 2013 look worse than ever.
We have discussed Tommi's predictions a number of times since he correctly predicted Lumia's low sales numbers back in 2011. We also discussed the "Elop Effect" before. We just recently discussed the "Chinese Smartphone Invasion" which is likely to leave little space for a Windows revival especially if the massive marketing cost of Lumia is true."
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