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Submission The Art of Elections Forecasting->

ideonexus writes: "Years ago Nate Silver of, a blog seeking to educate the public about elections forecasting, established his model as one of the most accurate in existence, rising from a fairly unknown statistician working in baseball to one of the most respected names in election forecasting. In this article he describes all the factors that go into his predictions. A fascinating overview of the process of modeling a chaotic system."
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The Art of Elections Forecasting

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In any problem, if you find yourself doing an infinite amount of work, the answer may be obtained by inspection.