Follow Slashdot stories on Twitter

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror

Slashdot videos: Now with more Slashdot!

  • View

  • Discuss

  • Share

We've improved Slashdot's video section; now you can view our video interviews, product close-ups and site visits with all the usual Slashdot options to comment, share, etc. No more walled garden! It's a work in progress -- we hope you'll check it out (Learn more about the recent updates).

×
Toys

+ - Kurzweil's aura failing?

Submitted by smallfries
smallfries (601545) writes "Ray Kurzweil has a reputation as a futurist that has remained intact for the past two decades. As we catch up with the first year for which he made concrete predictions it seems that cracks are starting to appear. Kurzweil's predictions of the future have revolved around technology providing exponential returns on investment. But the latest evidence suggests that these returns may fail in the semiconductor business as economics catches up with technology.

"The usable limit for semiconductor process technology will be reached when chip process geometries shrink to be smaller than 20 nanometers (nm), to 18nm nodes," explains Len Jelinek, director and chief analyst for semiconductor manufacturing at iSuppli in a new report. "At those nodes, the industry will start getting to the point where semiconductor manufacturing tools are too expensive to depreciate with volume production, i.e., their costs will be so high, that the value of their lifetime productivity can never justify it," he adds.

Which area will maintain such a high rate of improvement as microprocessors succumb to economic reality?"

This discussion was created for logged-in users only, but now has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

Kurzweil's aura failing?

Comments Filter:

"Call immediately. Time is running out. We both need to do something monstrous before we die." -- Message from Ralph Steadman to Hunter Thompson

Working...