EA Says 'Next-Gen' Is 'Now-Gen'

Via GamesRadar, a Reuters report noting that the 'next generation' consoles are now more-or-less broken in. Sales for the PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, and Wii have transitioned to the point where software sales are going to be well worth the effort for development houses. "'[Black] Friday marked one of those points where you can say something's changed," [EA CEO Riccitiello] said. 'Around the world, based on the data I've got, it was pretty clear that the transition is now over. Key to that was Sony Corp's recent price cut for its PlayStation 3, which should ensure the struggling console hits the company's fiscal-year sales target of 11 million units.'"

EA is crazy, Sony won't hit that target

[rbarreira]

Bear with me for a little while here.

Sony's target is to ship 11 million PS3s during this fiscal year (April 2007 - March 2008). In the first half of the year (April - September) they shipped 2 million PS3s. Even with increased holiday sales, 9 million in the remaining 6 months is absolutely crazy - it's actually similar to Wii sales.

Let's look at it another way:

In the previous fiscal year, Sony shipped 3.6 million PS3s. 11 + 3.6 = 14.6. 14.6 million PS3s shipped by the 31st of March 2008, which means around 14 million sold to consumers. According to vgchartz (which may be a little off but for the purposes of this discussion is more than accurate enough), the PS3 is at 6.36 million sold (to consumers) as of the 25th of November. 14 - 6.36 = 7.64 PS3s that they need to sell in 4 months... That's 1.91 million PS3s per month, which is more than current Wii levels of production (1.8 million according to Nintendo themselves).

EA is delusional, and Sony won't hit their target. In fact, they'll probably reduce their forecast in the next quarterly report (out in January). Otherwise, massive egg will be on their faces when they do their fiscal year report in April.

Re:No More "Last-Gen" EA Releases?

[Knara]

I can't quote you a URL at the moment, but I recall that Sony announced they'll be endorsing developers to make games for the PS2 at least through 2010. Given the huge install base of the PS2, it seems likely that there will be titles released on the Ps2 for a least a few years. Sadly, I imagine they won't be anything terribly innovative, but rather just releases of the franchise sports titles and the like.

Re:Translation:

[Opportunist]

Wii sales are still going crazy. Actually, it's hard to find a console (I've seen people fight over the last one). I recently got an offer of 400 bucks for mine. Check EBay, you'll notice people pay crazy prices for a used Wii, often more than you'd pay for a new one (provided you can find one, that is).

So I'd say the Wii has anything but reached market saturation. Ok, it's Christmas around the corner, so people are desperate to get some, but usually around Christmas, the shops have a few consoles lying around from throughout the year when people didn't buy them. This was not the case with the Wii, throughout the year sales were near output level and thus there is now no surplus of consoles (which would be usual for the Christmas sales).

The problem with the PS3 is simply the price tag. People do not buy a "game toy" for the price that is usually associated with a computer which can be used as much for games as the PS3, with the ability to run other stuff, too.

Re:Yeah, keep trying Sony

[IKnwThePiecesFt]

FYI the 360 Premium (with HDD) is $350, not $400.

Re:Yeah, keep trying Sony

[Stefanwulf]

Anecdotal evidence is meaningless. People need to stop mentioning it on Slashdot.

Anecdotal evidence isn't necessarily meaningless. People just need to be careful what conclusions they draw from it. Assuming that the GP is telling the truth (and with broken 360s, there is probably material evidence that could be checked if needed), then this evidence demonstrates that it is possible for one Slashdot user to know a group of 360 owners who have all had at least one 360 fail on them. It would, in fact, be very useful in disproving any claims to the contrary. So long as nobody interprets this single bit of information as being a statistical study of representative data, then we're all good.