History To Repeat Itself With PS3?

Dr. Eggman writes to mention a 1up article looking at the way things were when the PS2 launched vs. next week's PlayStation 3 launch. The question: can history repeat itself? From the article: "PS2: Released one year after the lower priced Dreamcast, lauded for its great games, ease of development, and superior online service. PS3: Releasing one year after the lower priced Xbox 360, lauded for its great games, ease of development, and superior online service. PS2: Competition from Nintendo: A smaller, cheaper 'family friendly' console with a 'focus on gameplay.' PS3: Competition from Nintendo: A smaller, cheaper 'family friendly' console with a 'focus on gameplay.'" The article also looks at how things have changed for Sony since the last time around.

Re:The Other side of the coin

[IGTeRR0r]

You have a valid point, but in this case, both the Wii and the PS3 look like gourmet products. I think kids would appreciate any 3 of the systems, as long as they get a few games too. $600 doesn't leave much room for any games, but $250 certainly does.

Re:The Other side of the coin

[AKAImBatman]

I was reading the USA Today this morning, and they had an interesting outlook on the PS3 vs. the Wii vs. the XBox 360. It basically came down to:

PS3: You're not getting one. Ha!
Wii: Risky, but inexpensive.
XBox: Just fork over the cash for instant gratification.

I think that says a lot about the mainstream views on this generation of console.

The article can be read online here:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/gaming/2006-11-09-con sole-cover_x.htm [usatoday.com]

Sega Issues

[therage96]

One important item to make note of here is that while the Sega Dreamcast was itself a decent system, Sega had already burned a lot of its customers with their numerous "1.5 systems." What I mean by that is, all of the many systems they created as extensions of current systems (Sega CD, 32X, etc..) that they sold as the next big thing, but completely failed on when it came to supporting them. I myself bought the 32X for $130 when it came out, and how many games were made for it? Less than 60. Same with the Saturn, the ultimate 2D system, suddenly found itself floundering when the Playstation focused solely on 3D games and Sega dropped it, and went on with the Dreamcast. After all of those, you could be sure I wasn't about to spend another dime on a Sega system, because how do I know its not another "1.5" system than will have its support cut out from under it in only a few months time.

Re:summary:

[jZnat]

Pretty much all the significant changes in video games have come from Nintendo (e.g. controllers, the existence of and evolution of, a few game genres).

Re:summary:

[twistedsymphony]

have you used the 360? MS is doing a whole lot of innovative things with the 360, some of it had rudimentary versions implemented on the Xbox 1 that have evolved into more refined features on the 360. The Dreamcast and the Saturn had a few minor innovative features, but there is more to innovation then hardware changes. Would you consider innovation in the PC space dead because we're all still using a keyboard and mouse? MS is innovating in the software arena and with their online service. Some of the things they've done that I consider to be innovative and Nintendo and Sony seem to be copycatting with their latest offerings:

• A unified online profile that contains all of your stats and setting across all of your games
• The ability to access and modify that profile online bringing your console presence to the PC
• An online feedback system that links to your unified profile that allows you to avoid or prefer players allowing you to keep playing others you enjoy playing with and avoid others you don't enjoy playing with
• The ability to access a set of controls with the touch of a button at any time allowing you to adjust various console and profile settings, adjust custom soundtracks, send and receive messages, view information about your profile and the profiles of the gamers you're playing against, etc.
• The ability to set your preferred controls... axis inversion etc. and have it be used for every game
• The "TrueSkill [microsoft.com]" skill raking algorithm for match making online with people at your skill level
• "Custom Soundtracks" that allow you to easily replace the in-game music with music from from a storage device, an iPod, or a networked computer
• Achievements which add replay value to games by suggesting goals and setting challenges that a gamer might not otherwise attempt
• Gamerscore derived from achievement that creates a sort of Meta-game that encompasses all games on their console
• The Xbox Live Arcade (which was started with the Xbox 1) for downloadable games and content delivery directly to the console

Some of these ideas start on the Xbox 1, and PC but have been really fleshed out and turned into really solid, beneficial and most importanly universal features. None of these have been done on other consoles to my knowledge.

Re:Sony doesn't much care how they compare to Xbox

[MrDiablerie]

Yes but what you forget is Blu-Ray discs are playable in other Blu-Ray players. UMDs can only be played on PSPs. Also, UMDs don't offer better quality than DVDs. Why would you want to buy a movie twice so you can watch it on your home system and a portable? So this argument can't really be applied to the PS3, it's not the same situation.

Re:Sony doesn't much care how they compare to Xbox

[Black Pete]

How can HD-DVD compete with that kind of a headstart?

Easily. HD-DVD has the letters "DVD" in it. That has an immediate meaning in the average consumer's head: It's like DVD, but now it's in HD! Just like how a HD-TV is like a TV but in HD!

HD-DVD, regardless of how well it actually performs, has an immediate name recognition. The name "Blu-ray" really doesn't convey any meaning to the average Joe Blow -- unless s/he already did the homework. It doesn't exactly scream, "This is better than DVD!"

Re:Sony doesn't much care how they compare to Xbox

[illegalcortex]

The PS2 didn't reach 40 million until September 2002 [bbc.co.uk], 2.5 years after it went on sale in March 2000. It took it until November 2005 [gamasutra.com] to reach 100 million. I couldn't find any reference to the PS2 hitting 150 million. All I could find was a cite from this month saying the entire "installed base" for all gaming number 150 million [signonsandiego.com].

So I really don't forsee this as being a coup for Sony. It might be, but I don't think so. I bought an N65 and then a Playstation. I bought a Playstation2 and then a Gamecube. I would have bought an original Xbox if any of my friends had them.

At $600, I will never buy a PS3, regardless of the fact that I've already pre-ordered a Wii. Ken was right - at that price, it's not a gaming machine anymore. If I buy a second console, it will be an Xbox 360, even though I loathe Microsoft.

With the high price of the PS3, the initial install base will grow very slowly. This will cause a low volume of game sales, which will further cause fewer games to come out, which will cause fewer people to buy a PS3. It will just snowball from there. Sony simply does not have the first party games to pull this off. I think Nintendo MIGHT be able to do it, but it would take a radical marketing and focus shift. But their first party titles would guarantee an initial install base to get the ball rolling. Microsoft might be able to get it going due to Halo and its penchant for just buying up game developers. Sony would have a small chance of doing it based on games that tend to be exclusive to it (at least initially), but with the pricing they have just guaranteed it will not happen.

It really just comes down to a VERY simple fact - $600. Even at $500, it's a bad deal. $500 is right around the price for a lot of people where purchases move from "do I want this?" to "do I need this?". And when you add on the price of a game and an extra controller, bumping it up around $100, most people will decide they don't need it. I think this would be true even if the Xbox and Wii were launching two years later than the PS3.

And Blu-Ray will do absolutely nothing to help sell more than a few million or so PS3s. Studies have shown that the average household income for HDTV owners is nearly $90k. [usatoday.com] The people with that kind of money would probably have bought the PS3 anyway. But the people at the lower end of the scale who really stretched their finances to buy the HDTV to begin with will be hard put to shell out for the PS3. And if you look at that study, only about half the people watch HD programming on their HDTVs. These people aren't exactly clamoring for higher quality video.

So while I could completely be wrong, I predict this could be a complete catastrophe for Sony. This opinion doesn't come from fanboism. Nintendo cured me of that with the N64 debacle. Since then I have been fairly platform neutral. Even my disgust with Microsoft wouldn't have kept me from buying an Xbox if I could have convinced my brother to get broadband so we could play online.

My prediction for hitting the different milestones are:
5 million sales in the first 9 months
30 million sales three years from launch
50 million sales five years from launch

Re:The Other side of the coin

[hexix]

I was thinking something along those lines too. The problem is I just went to Gamestop the other day and they had a demo Wii unit setup to play. The game on it was Excite Truck and it was hooked up to a LCD tv that might have been HD-capable. The connectors however were just the standard ones that come with the Wii and don't enable the progressive scan support. Because of this the graphics looked insanely bad. It was next to a game cube and the game cube's graphcis actually looked better (probably due to it using a small crt television that blurred out the jagged edges).

I really couldn't believe Nintendo would setup their kiosks like this. If I found the Wii to look bad compared to a game cube I can't imagine how bad it's going to look if next to an xbox 360 or a PS3. I'm not sure the $250 price tag can remove that bad taste from someone's mouth.

Also, I played Excite Truck and it really wasn't anything worthwhile. I assume they didn't have Wii sports in it because the Gamestop I was at was a very small store and they probably couldn't make it work in there. I'm really hoping it's not that they're trying to hide any problems with the Wiimote.

Re:That's not the real reason

[johnpaul191]

i did know some people that justified the price of the PS2 because it had a DVD player. at the time a DVD player was what, $200+? whatever the price was, people (i knew) thought of it like: (PS2 cost) - (DVD player cost) = acceptable increase if they were going to buy a standalone DVD player anyway. i suppose a test of this is knowing how many of those DVD remotes they sold.

i agree that the PS3 does not have the same bonus appeal. DVDs were so much better than VHS, the jump to the new formats does not seem to have the same upgrade feel. if you dropped the money on a HD flat panel TV etc etc and care that much to upgrade all your movies.... the cost issue is probably insignificant.

i agree that this is going to be the opposite effect..... people will now just happen to have a Blu-Ray compatible player so they may start buying some movies on that format (if there is some special edition or something). i have a feeling the quality issues won't be enough at this point, for this audience at least.

Re:History's not repeating

[meringuoid]

PS3: Competition from Nintendo: A smaller, cheaper 'family friendly' console with a 'focus on gameplay.' released concurrently with the PS3."

In Europe, Wii is getting released Before Christmas, PS3 is getting released After Christmas, which I'd guess will be hugely important. That said, from what I hear from my contacts in the school playground (which is to say my little sister) the DS Lite is the must-have Christmas gift this year...

Re:summary:

[NineNine]

The controller is a gimmick. A bad gimmick at that. Somehow, I can't see a lot of people swinging around the room after the novelty wears off in the first 10 minutes. That stupid Nintendo controller will sink Nintendo faster than you can say "Power Glove"

Re:That's not the real reason

[drinkypoo]

I disagree. I knew several people with PS2's when they came out, and not a single person even used the DVD player, let alone decided to purchase a PS2 because of it.

Obviously you don't know parents with kids.

Also, you don't know me or any of my PS2-owning friends, all of whom used their PS2 as a DVD player. DVD players were expensive at the time and most of us didn't have one, but were willing to shell out money for a PS2. As it is, I didn't get mine at launch time, I waited for a price drop. Ended up getting the GT3 bundle.

The PS2 may have been a crap DVD player (although the PSTwo is MUCH better - you can even turn it on and off with the remote like a real DVD player) but if you were buying one anyway, the functionality was basically free - unlike the PS3, which costs $200 more than the competition because it adds this higher-capacity drive.

Re:The Other side of the coin

[shimpei]

People who follow the console wars have already abandoned ps3, by and large. I say that because for all the game forums I'm on (and most like console RPGs, which the ps2 had tons of), I have yet to find one single person excited about the ps3.

Sure, that's what "everybody" has been saying in Japanese game forums for the last few months, too--so much so that I was getting skeptical about initial demand myself. Then there was a near-riot in Akihabara last night [nikkei.co.jp] (sorry, no English article yet) among people who were falling over themselves trying to get a PS3. No more PS3 to be had for love or money--OK, maybe lots of money if you go to auction sites--over here.

In contrast, there was a huge positive hype over Xbox 360 on all the Japanese game forums prior to release date, leaving naive viewers with no doubt who the next generation winner is going to be. Today, the 360 is dead in Japan--it has a puny <160K install base, and it will never occupy more than a Amiga-like niche. But game forums to this day are still dominated by kids gushing over Blue Odyssey or whatever the latest Great White Hope is for the 360 these days, and they will tell you the PS3 is a POS hardware that will never sell.

Conclusion: game forums are not accurate indicators of real consumer demand.

Re:The Other side of the coin

[shimpei]

Well, I will let you in on a few secrets myself.

Apple.
Dell.
Coca-Cola.
Proctor & Gamble.
VISA.

All of them are doing very well in a supposedly xenophobic Japanese market, even though credible domestic alternatives exist. The Japanese people are perfectly happy to take Western products over Japanese products if they are in fact superior to needs in Japan, and is marketed properly. Microsoft can't blame the society for the horrendous performance over here.

As for the "Hard-Core" gamer segment, no, Sony is NOT supposed to be aiming at them. Microsoft already tried that on both sides of the Pacific Ocean, and the result is instadeath in Japan and less-than-PS2 sales in the US. There are just too few of them, and more importantly, they do not drive game sales because non-core gamers generally do not look to them when picking games. Compare this to the fashion industry, in which core fashion experts can and do drive trend because many women take Metropolitan and Elle models and journalists' words for gospel. Gamers and game journalists, in contrast, generally get all the respect of dung beetles(look at the level of respect Zonk is getting around here, for example), and is therefore unable to influence the general public beyond their own little circle.

As for multi-platform games, we'll see. There has never been a situation in console game history in which porting was widespread--it has always been limited to a few powerful franchises that did not need console maker's support--but maybe the market dynamics has changed so much that it is now going to happen. I'm not holding my breath, though. A more likely scenario is that games within a franchise gets released for different platforms, which is already starting to happen: Ridge Racer 6 for Xbox 360, RR7 for PS3; and FF12 for PS2, FF12RW for NDS.