Study Finds World Warmth Edging to Ancient Levels 534
Krishna Dagli writes to mention a decades-long study by NASA scientists. According to the research, global temperatures are reaching highs not seen in thousands of years. From the article: "One of the findings from this collaboration is that the Western Equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are now as warm as, or warmer than, at any prior time in the Holocene. The Holocene is the relatively warm period that has existed for almost 12,000 years, since the end of the last major ice age. The Western Pacific and Indian Oceans are important because, as these researchers show, temperature change there is indicative of global temperature change. Therefore, by inference, the world as a whole is now as warm as, or warmer than, at any time in the Holocene. According to Lea, 'The Western Pacific is important for another reason, too: it is a major source of heat for the world's oceans and for the global atmosphere.'"
Return of the Old Air (Score:4, Interesting)
All that spells "extinction", or at best "civilization collapse".
I'm buying ocean front property, in Wyoming (Score:3, Interesting)
And if you want to make them wealthy, buy a lot of land that will still BE land.
New Orleans is in a very BAD long term position, amortising over 30 years, you're likely to find your real-estate holdings underwater. (If you want to see how bad it can get, just look at the Champlain sea and the fact that the mid western praries are prime flat growing land because they were UNDERWATER.)
Re:An Inconvenient Truth (Score:3, Interesting)
The writers of the study entitled it this because that was the most 'interesting' scenario they modeled, the others (and there were many) weren't nearly as spectacular, some even showed a decrease in temperature.
Regardless of what the study showed, the writers only believe that global temperatures will only rise 1-3C in the next 50 years (which is how long it should take for CO2 levels to double, if the rate continues as it has in the past).
Even at 3C, the shorelines will not be significantly changed.
This is also all based on the assumption of CO2 levels doubling, which may not happen due to various reasons unrelated to man's self-moderation (or lack thereof).
The article also mentions (if this is the same piece of copy I read earlier about this research) that hurricanes and weather systems such as El Niño could be altered by the warming of the oceans. It's easily possible that such things could happen that would work in man's favor. For instance, a temperature increase will mean more fresh water worldwide as there will be much more rainfall. Also, plants tend to grow faster when CO2 levels, water, and heat are increased. There was an article in Nature Magazine about how crop yeilds could increase by as much as 40% from these effects.
Not that I'm pro-global warming or I don't think it exists. The only opinion I'm expressing is that climate change may not be as bad as advertised.
Re:Time Warp (Score:3, Interesting)
So while the world will not end in 10 years, if the earth's temperature increase continues, it will be a real problem.
Temperature is a poor measure of warming (Score:3, Interesting)
Rather than try look for temperature indicators, changes in amounts of ice are a far better indicator of global warmining for a long time still.
So then doesn't that mean ... (Score:3, Interesting)
They're farming in Greenland again. (Score:2, Interesting)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,151
Re:Historical Data Readings (Score:2, Interesting)
There's more to it than just hot weather: WAR (Score:5, Interesting)
http://www.grist.org/pdf/AbruptClimateChange2003.
"There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations...
1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production
2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts
3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess
As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor.
This scenario poses new challenges for the United States, and suggests several steps to be taken:
Re:Return of the Old Air (Score:2, Interesting)
I'm being facetious, but the point is that having intelligence and consciousness gives mankind far greater ability to survive than we would have with just evolution. In flying, or going to space, or building cities, we are already far outpacing evolution. So, I disagree that climate change, even within the most extreme scenarios that are still realistic, will ever become more than an inconvenience for humanity. A major inconvenience, perhaps, but certainly not extinction or the collapse of civilization.
Re:Enough is enough /.! We are better than this! (Score:3, Interesting)
One word: funding.
Have we lost faith in the scientific process? Do we disbelieve that it is possible to make hypotheses and discover through investigation the nature of our reality?
Um, I take it that most people are just fed up with scientists and the entire global warming debate at all. They've been fedup since shortly after global warming has been announced to be a really long term problem. Most early research (70s and 80s) was stating nothing to worry about for a good 200-300 years and more like 1,000-2,000 down the line. Let's be honest. Humanity isn't at the stage, yet to objectively defend itself against really long term threats. We are fairly good at personal survival, and regional survival. China is our longest lasting cultural entity that we have. Their government has gone through many changes. We need a governmental/social structure that will last/have actual real power 500-1,000 years down the line. The only institution that I can really think of lasting that long is the Cathloic church. We need an organization devoted to preserving humanity against all unlikely and likely long term threats.
People who keep repeating that climate change is a conspiracy remind me of someone who has just been told they have a cancer and are in denial. WAKE UP! Ugh.
Back to my "funding" again. It slightly is a conspiracy, but not in the tradional sense. We really should design and build long term monitoring of the Earth's biosphere. I mean build a system to monitor this planet for a good 1-2K years. We really should have built such a system in the mid 60s or early 70s even if the system had to double as a spy stat network. The truth is we don't know. I've been fedup with the subject after trying to stay somewhat current. I took numerous HS classes in the early 90s. They were still not sure and every scientist wanted funding to establish a longer term base line. Our knowledgable people didn't think that we had nearly enough data. From what I've seen since then. I still think that we don't have enough data, but political folks are wanting to cut funding of all that long term monitoring. Which means, that to ensure future support they have to show a need/cause to the politicans. I'm kinda mixed myself. I think that alot of global climating monitoring should be cut and we should build several really long term stats to do the monitoring instead of all the Phds doing field work. We have alot of brain power that I think should be redirected to other uses. If we could extend the human life span to 200-300 years then we would start taking a more serious interest in global warming if only for personal survival.
Re:Enough is enough /.! We are better than this! (Score:3, Interesting)
Darfur as an example (Score:3, Interesting)
The two groups here are settled African-speaking agriculturalists, and semi-nomadic Arabic speakers.
As desertification takes its toll, the arable land is less and less, and hence the nomads start to encroach on the farmers. The defining event was the failing rains and ensuing famine in 1983 and 1984.
Of course, as with most human conflicts, the reasons are complex, and there are other factors contributing to this, such as regional powers meddling with the issue. However, the weather is a preciptiating factor here.