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Microsoft Hoping for Vista in January 424

Posted by Zonk
from the happy-new-year-vista-07 dept.
WebHostingGuy writes "Bill Gates said Tuesday there was an 80 percent chance the company's next-generation operating system, Vista, would be ready in January. He is also hopeful that the next version of Office will ship in December. The holdup, he says, is due to constant revisions due to beta tester feedback." From the article: "'We've got to get this absolutely right,' Gates said. 'If the feedback from the beta tests shows it is not ready for prime time, I'd be glad to delay it.' He said Microsoft was investing $8 billion to $9 billion in developing Vista and the company's next version of Office, its key cash-generator. He said the company's software partners, in developing and adapting their own products for the two launches, would invest 20 times as much as Microsoft."
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Microsoft Hoping for Vista in January

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  • by lecithin (745575) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @12:55PM (#15699075)
    Gates says 80% chance that it will be a go in January.

    Mr Gates, how much do you want to bet?

    I'd really like to see what kind of odds the Vegas bookmakers would give it.

    "The holdup, he says, is due to constant revisions due to beta tester feedback."

    Well duh, Just quit testing!
    • I don't think we should be so hard on Microsoft. Has Hurd been completed yet ? In complex projects, these things happen.
      • Re:Credible odds? (Score:3, Insightful)

        by mrchaotica (681592) *

        HURD shouldn't have to be any more complex than Linux, and Linux is very complete in comparison. The problems with HURD stem from poor project management, not inherent complexity.

    • by eln (21727) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @12:56PM (#15699090) Homepage
      What he really meant was that it would be 80% DONE by January. That means, if they release it in January, it will be the most complete and stable OS ever released by Microsoft.
    • by morgan_greywolf (835522) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:02PM (#15699142) Homepage Journal
      Well duh, Just quit testing!


      Right. Testing will be 80% done by January, making Windows Vista the most thoroughly tested Microsoft operating system ever.
    • Gambling (Score:3, Funny)

      by darthservo (942083)
      Mr Gates, how much do you want to bet? I'd really like to see what kind of odds the Vegas bookmakers would give it.

      Since Mr. Gates lives in Washington [pokermag.com], he is unfortunately not able to respond to your wager online. [slashdot.org]

    • Mr Gates, how much do you want to bet?

      "Well, like I said, there's about a 1 in 5 chance that it won't ship. It's hardly a sure thing. So I'll bet... say... a billion dollars."

  • Hope is alway a good thing but sometimes reality must butt in. Who is going to make plans based on an 80% chance of a product being available?
    • Re:Hope... (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Moqui (940533)
      That 80% chance is figuring in the inclusion of a new Microsoft folder game, Duke Nukem Forever. They are taking out minesweeper for it, so they are being extra careful that it will be ready for primetime -- some January.
    • Everybody is, because there's a 100% chance that it will become the overwhelming market leader whenever it finally does hit store shelves.
      • Re:Hope... (Score:2, Interesting)

        Everybody is, because there's a 100% chance that it will become the overwhelming market leader whenever it finally does hit store shelves.

        Unless it's a bloated bugfest like Windows ME and people refuse to upgrade.

        I don't know what the odds of that are, but personally I'm not in a hurry to migrate. I was excited about XP because it fixed the worst of the Windows 98 stability problems. (By making it harder for a misbehaving process to bring the whole system down.) But I don't have any motivation to go from my
        • True, but the point is that software vendors can't assume a failure. They have to plan for Vista become a big market leader. Maybe it happens in 2007, and maybe it happens in 2010 (or by then, maybe like ME, it just skips a "generation" and everyone adopts Vista's successor).

          My company's products are primarily Java based, although they are typically used in a Windows world. I'm not spending any time planning for Vista - but that's mostly because I pass the buck to Sun and trust them to roll out a Vista-co
        • Re:Hope... (Score:3, Informative)

          by westlake (615356)
          Unless it's a bloated bugfest like Windows ME and people refuse to upgrade

          In the spring of 2003 XP had 30% of the market. Three years later, XP has 75% of the market. Users upgrade, they do not migrate to the alternative OS. OS Platform Statistics [w3schools.com]

          "Bloat" is strictly a Geek obession. Vista Premium should run just fine on your midline Dell.

    • Re:Hope... (Score:3, Interesting)

      by misleb (129952)
      The real question is, who makes plans that involve the early adoption of a significantly renovated Microsoft OS? Granted, things aren't quite as bad as the NT 4.0 days where the OS didn't even approach general stability until around SP4, but one would be wise to wait until at least until SP1 of Vista before widescale deployment.

      -matthew
  • Will there be (Score:5, Insightful)

    by remembertomorrow (959064) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @12:57PM (#15699097)
    a reason to actually upgrade to it by then?

    Last I heard, all the features were being removed, and that it required an insane machine to run.
    • by Danse (1026) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @02:16PM (#15699767)
      Last I heard, all the features were being removed, and that it required an insane machine to run.

      Dude, what are you talking about?! Vista is gonna have some sweet new DRM! We can finally quit messing around with our PCs and just let Microsoft run them for us! Think of all the time we spend on the computer that we can now spend doing... umm... other stuff? I think there's supposed to be other stuff we can do anyway... not real clear on that...
  • by jZnat (793348) * on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @12:57PM (#15699100) Homepage Journal
    At this point, even Debian has a more reliable release schedule!
  • Well (Score:3, Funny)

    by abscissa (136568) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @12:58PM (#15699108)
    If beta 2 was any indication, they better start from scratch again.
  • Doesn't matter (Score:4, Insightful)

    by eebra82 (907996) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:02PM (#15699137) Homepage
    There is no real need for a Vista release anytime soon, really. Judging from what we've heard so far, people complain about the hardware requirements. Microsoft should not have had a public release date on this product and it seems people are upset only because they missed it. Well, guess what, Windows XP is still here and I doubt anyone in here can actually give me a good reason why we HAVE TO get Vista right away. I wouldn't mind waiting another year.
    • Re:Doesn't matter (Score:5, Insightful)

      by ZachPruckowski (918562) <zachary.pruckowski@gmail.com> on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:08PM (#15699181)
      Well, guess what, Windows XP is still here and I doubt anyone in here can actually give me a good reason why we HAVE TO get Vista right away. I wouldn't mind waiting another year.

      Every month that goes by without Vista is another month for Linux to improve, and is another month for Apple to work on Leopard (and maybe beat Vista out with it). Point is, MS has competition, which is picking up speed. MS wants to cut that off as soon as possible, and regulate them back to 1-2 percent each.
      • Every month that goes by without Vista is another month for Linux to improve, and is another month for Apple to work on Leopard (and maybe beat Vista out with it). Point is, MS has competition, which is picking up speed. MS wants to cut that off as soon as possible, and regulate them back to 1-2 percent each.

        Release OSX for generic PC. It'll kill their (perceived) "hardware business" (in practice is just expensive dongles for their OS and software suite) but it would pretty much nail M$ to the wall.

        • by MyOtherUIDis3digits (926429) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:49PM (#15699526)
          Release OSX for generic PC. It'll kill their (perceived) "hardware business" (in practice is just expensive dongles for their OS and software suite) but it would pretty much nail M$ to the wall.

          Now I admit I'm a huge Mac fanboi and would be just fine never touching another Windows box in my life, but Apple would take many tears and years to integrate the hardware support that Windows has. One of the reasons I love Apple, "Don't do it all, just do what you do damn well."
        • it would pretty much nail M$ to the wall.

          Like OS/2 or BeOS?

          Been there, evaluated that.

          -jcr
    • Re:Doesn't matter (Score:5, Insightful)

      by SpaceLifeForm (228190) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:24PM (#15699322)
      I'm still wondering why anyone had to upgrade to XP from 2000.

      • I'm still wondering why anyone had to upgrade to XP from 2000.

        Well, I upgraded from Windows 98 to Windows XP, which was a huge improvement. I can't say I've seen any appreciable difference between XP and 2000 though (I regularly use 2000 at the office), save for the skin and themeing abilities in XP, which is not a big selling point for me.

        I have, however no intention of ever upgrading to Vista, although my hardware can run it, why would I want to? Eye candy does not equate to a solid operating system a

      • Re:Doesn't matter (Score:3, Informative)

        by laffer1 (701823)
        For gaming. Windows XP has better support for games than 2000 did. Some software runs on XP that also ran on 98, but not 2000. That is the reason. Windows 2000 Pro was targeted to business, but they also picked up a few geeks like me. I preferred the stability of NT4 and 2k to Windows 95/98. I actually prefer the new start menu layout over the old one. It did take time to get used to it.

        I wish you would give Microsoft a break. We always complain about their lack of quality. If Bill Gates is actuall
    • Re:Doesn't matter (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Tsiangkun (746511)
      I personally have no reason to upgrade to vista right now.

      I upgraded to an apple. I'm already enjoying features that microsoft has been promising for years.

      I guess that's the reason it needs to come out quickly, marketing can't hype something that everyone has seen on their friends
      apple.

    • Re:Doesn't matter (Score:3, Interesting)

      by UnknowingFool (672806)

      There is no real need for a Vista release anytime soon, really.

      Tell that to the people who bought SA licenses between 2001 and 2003. The paid more so that they could a discount on the next release within 3 years. With 3 years being up, MS does not have to honor those SA agreements.

      • Re:Doesn't matter (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Danse (1026)
        Tell that to the people who bought SA licenses between 2001 and 2003. The paid more so that they could a discount on the next release within 3 years. With 3 years being up, MS does not have to honor those SA agreements.

        Yeah, but they're all Bill's bitches anyway. They'll pay up, and he knows it. Is this flamebait? I don't think so. I think it's absolutely true in at least 95% of all cases. People just can't seem to ween themselves off of Windows.
  • by kneeslasher (878676) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:04PM (#15699159) Homepage
    Bud Light presents ... Real Men Of Genius.

    [Real Men Of Genius.]

    Today, we salute you, Mr Impatient For Windows Vista Guy.

    [Mr Impatient For Windows Vista Guy.]

    While others marvel at an operating system whose primary repair
    tradition is a complete wipe, you just can't wait for more of the
    same.

    [I just love my Long Horn!]

    Yes, it lacks security, efficiency, speed, heck, just about
    everything. But ever since 1985, when you first jammed your floppies
    into that curvaceous 186, you've been enraptured with Windows.

    [It was five and a quarter inches!]

    Despite the fact that it requires an array of Crays to run already
    invented technologies at sub-optimum speeds, you will beat the rush
    and see Notepad and Clock run in CPU-crippling GPU-hogging
    translucency.

    [It turns on all my pixels!]

    So crack open an ice cold Bud Lite, oh Chevalier of the Control Panel,
    because whilst the rest of us wonder what Vista will bring, you
    already know.

    [Mr Impatient For Windows Vista Guy!]

    Bud Light beer. Anheuser Busch, St. Louis, Missouri.
  • Hoping? (Score:5, Funny)

    by andrewman327 (635952) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:07PM (#15699178) Homepage Journal
    Well, I'm hoping for a pair of brunettes and a sports car, but it's not happening. I don't know how Bill Gates can even estimate the chance at this point. He says that it keeps getting sent back from testing.


    Windows Vista = new Windows();
    Vista.announceWayTooEarlyReleaseDate()
    Vista.test();

    public void test()
    {
    test();
    }

  • So much buildup (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward
    So much buildup for what amounts to, after all the stuff they cut out, a Mac OS X-colored GUI and a fancy new video game engine. And they've been working on this how long?

    Man, I remember 10 years ago when I was making fun of Windows 95 for not having any original ideas. I didn't know how good we had it. At least Windows 95 had some ideas, whether or not they were original-- there was at least a substantial difference from Windows 3.1. But it seems like from 2000 to XP to Vista all Microsoft's really done is
  • ...a 1 in 5 chance that Vista won't be released In January 2007.

    How long has this operating system been due now?

    • "Bill Gates said Tuesday there was an 80 percent chance the company's next-generation operating system, Vista, would be ready in January." "We've got to get this absolutely right," Gates said. "If the feedback from the beta tests shows it is not ready for prime time, I'd be glad to delay it." *** In other words, we already know we 'again' can't make the January timeline, but I will use the quality pretext to launch it in 2008. We would, although, like to keep 80% of the investors for now... please...
  • So by saying that 3rd parties are spending 20x9 billion, Mr. Gates tells us all that reimplementing for Vista will cost us 180 billion dollars... Ouch!
  • by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:18PM (#15699266)
    "He is also hopeful that the next version of Office will ship in December."

    Oh man, now he's resorting to asking Santa...
  • yes but... (Score:4, Funny)

    by owlnation (858981) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:22PM (#15699293)
    ...which January?
  • by gatkinso (15975) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:23PM (#15699303)
    How does one spend that much money writing code?

    Well, OK, when you write it over and over and over again....
  • Sneer if you like (Score:5, Insightful)

    by DysenteryInTheRanks (902824) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:27PM (#15699345) Homepage
    He said the company's software partners, in developing and adapting their own products for the two launches, would invest 20 times as much as Microsoft

    Right there is why Microsoft is the most successful software company in the world -- respect for developers.

    It's all well and good to laugh at Steve Ballmer sweating like an ape on a stage and shouting about developers. It's fine to feel smug and superior using Mac OS or Linux (I'm using both write now myself).

    But Microsoft has always respected the work of developers coding to their platform. Backward compatibility is a religion at Microsoft, by all accountts. Which is good because they're, um, a platform vendor.

    Sounds simple, but it is amazing how often this is screwed up. Apple is notorious for breaking old programs that didn't interpret the Mac API just right -- or that relied on a technology fad Apple pumped and abandoned (OpenDoc, QuickDraw GX, Publish + Subscribe, etc etc).

    Apache Foundation did the same thing moving from httpd v1 to v2 -- PHP took quite a long time to move over and at one point was telling people not to even try using it with v2.

    Firefox seems to do it on every release with its extensions.

    Backward compatibility might not give warm fuzzies to the systems programmers -- it is hard, inelegant work. But it is a boon to users and application programmers.

    I only use Linux on the server, where I don't run into backward compatibility issues, but from what I understand the drivers often have to be rewritten from release to release.

    I'm not in love with Windows or Microsoft, but I will continue using their OS becase of the sheer range of CHOICES in terms of software and hardware, and the fact that all my old stuff can migrate to a new machine.

    So go ahead, laugh at Microsoft, har dee har, "u r d3layed AG@1N!" For your purposes -- programming, running a server -- Linux may be the best. Or Mac OS X for that plus video editing, publishing, and other tasks and price points that don't require the full diversity of Wintel.

      But for most computer users, Windows offers wins because of its compatibility with an incredibly array of cheap hardware and an incredible back (and forward) catalog of software. Microsoft knows this, and THAT'S why they are going to wait until Vista is just right. Yes they screwed the pooch, but they are attempting something that neither Linux nor OS X can touch.
    • "I'm using both write now myself"

      Well, you certainly seem to be using the new macbook keyboard...
    • by Soko (17987) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:44PM (#15699491) Homepage
      Your statement is inherently true - Microsoft takes care of it's devs (The VS product line is normally stellar in quality and ease of use) unless, of course, you're a dev in competition with them. Then you get to deal with closed formats, random API changes and, in the case of GPL software devs, licensing that benefits them at your expense. Oh, you can become a compeditor of thiers at any time - as soon as they see you're making some serious money and/or stratecically covet your market segment.

      OK, Microsoft can do ths if they want, but it hurts the industry when Microsoft can tell devs what, for whom and how to develop software, or suffer destruction at thier hands. (Unlees you're IBM or Oracle sized, and have enough resources to fight back.)

      Soko
    • But Microsoft has always respected the work of developers coding to their platform.

      BWAHAHAHA HAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH AAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA HAHAHHAHAHA.

      Hehehehe heheh BWHAHAHAHAHAHAA...

      ...(after 25 minutes of uncontrollable laughter)...

      You're not serious are you? Coming from the same company that makes it a living hell to code for the web, which implements such solutions (undisclosed, subtle breakage of API calls) that puts competitors in extremely difficult positions. The one that has a 2 m

    • So go ahead, laugh at Microsoft, har dee har, "u r d3layed AG@1N!" For your purposes -- programming, running a server -- Linux may be the best. Or Mac OS X for that plus video editing, publishing, and other tasks and price points that don't require the full diversity of Wintel... But for most computer users, Windows offers wins because of its compatibility with an incredibly array of cheap hardware and an incredible back (and forward) catalog of software. Microsoft knows this, and THAT'S why they are going
    • by SuperKendall (25149) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @03:21PM (#15700326)
      The new Microsoft is more than happy to ship .Net upgrades that break older code.

      As for Apple not having respect for developers, which companies ships every OS with a copy of the development tools? Just because they are a little more agressive API wise does not mean they do not support developers.

      And Linux of course is the original "I liked the product so much I wrote it myself" kind of system that is by developers, for developers. If Linux has a problem it's that it only truly respects developers and other people are allowed to tag along for the ride!
  • Jan (Score:3, Funny)

    by xming (133344) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:31PM (#15699375) Homepage
    There will 1/12 chance that Vista will be released in January, not 4/5.
  • Other than to have a gratuitous incompatible format change to force people to upgrade, why do people need a new version of MS Office?

    Seriously, I am curious, if you are an Office user, what features are you missing that you would be willing to upgrade for?
  • We've got to get this absolutely right

    No joke, after making us wait this long for it. If you'd gotten it out sooner, the expectations would have been easier to meet.

  • Windows is too much of a cash cow for Microsoft to be taking this long between releases - Microsoft is simply stalling until the Antitrust settlement is up, rather than actually change their business ethics. Here is a snip from wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_antitrust_ c ase [wikipedia.org]

    Microsoft's obligations under the settlement, as originally drafted, expire on November 12, 2007. [13] However, Microsoft later "agreed to consent to a two-year extension of part of the Final Judgments" dealing wit
  • by macslut (724441) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @01:47PM (#15699514)
    Here's the problem with Microsoft...they're spending 8-9 billion on Vista, but will only see a very slight fraction of return on the investment. Few people will upgrade to Vista, but instead will adopt Vista when it comes with their new PC. Microsoft could just keep XP and these same people would've paid roughly the same amount for it on a new PC as they would with Vista on a new PC. In other words, Microsoft since becoming the overwhelmingly dominate OS has no incentive to improve Windows unless they can release something so major that it provides an incentive for people to upgrade. The problem is that doing a major release like that would be *extremely expensive* and risk losing customers due to the radical change. This is why the *next* version of Windows after Vista will be even more of a headache for Microsoft.
    • But if they did not release Vista, those new PC sales would slowly transition to their competitors (Mac, linux, solaris) as XP became more dated... at which time they would be dead.

      They do have an option of simply releasing early and often and evolving XP... essentially delivering Vista over the course of years to it's customers. That's a very nice and user friendly model, but has the drawback of not having big media fanfare every few years.
  • by GmAz (916505)
    I am personally running Office 2007 Beta and its quite nice. A few hiccups here and there, but nothing that stops the functionality of Office.
  • by wealthychef (584778) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @02:32PM (#15699941)
    Clever strategy: "We want to make sure our focus groups are happy." Now, if they don't ship, it's because they care to make it perfect. If by a miracle they actually do ship on time, yeah right, then they have pulled off a miracle. Either way, they look good. Before, it was just do or die. Very effective politics, mr. Gates.
  • by Cryptimus (243846) on Tuesday July 11, 2006 @04:46PM (#15701154) Homepage
    Shit Bill, in my day we just called 'em bugs.
  • I bet you (Score:3, Informative)

    by Aqws (932918) on Wednesday July 12, 2006 @12:53AM (#15703445) Journal
    I gaurentee you that in January 2007, Windows Vista will not be released. I am going to go as far as to say thay it will not even be released in the first half of 2007. I am going to quote this post during that time.

"Confound these ancestors.... They've stolen our best ideas!" - Ben Jonson

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