Ship Logs Suggest Upcoming Polar Reversal

Nyerp writes "Researchers are using naval logs dating back as far as 1590 to arrive at better estimates of the decline of Earth's magnetic field. The results suggest that there may be a reversal of earth's magnetic field in about 2000 years." Also worth noting, our ancestors have lived through a number of polar reversals, and we're still here, so no need to fret!

Slightly off...

[Justifiable_Delusion]

To say just because our ancestors lived through it 780 million years ago does NOT mean that we will do just fine and shouldn't fret. Maybe something like this occuring leads to accelerated mutations and changes in the human genome (or all animals for that reason). I would like to see if there were any studies done looking at genetics before and after each of these flips in the general population of living things. The planets surface is BATHED is radiation. To think this would have no affect on us would be foolish. We will have to change the way we live. Skin cancer now a days is bad enough....imagine multiplying it by a factor of 10,000.

SPF my ass.

"No need to fret?" Like hell.

[gblues]

Also worth noting, our ancestors have lived through a number of polar reversals, and we're still here, so no need to fret!

Sure, no need to fret. It's not like we haven't invested hundreds of years worth of technology and research based on magnetic reference points. Oh, wait...

Nathan

Re:electronic dependence

[Mr. Underbridge]

Not only that, but probably many people *didn't* live through it due to the insane rates of skin cancer.

Re:Duh.

[rbochan]

"I must go down to the seas again,
to the lonely sea and the sky,
And all I ask is a tallship,
and a star to sail her by,..."
      --John Masefield

There were sucessful sailors long before there were compasses...
And there's always those new fangled gps thingies.

Re:Earths shielding?

[ClickOnThis]

How does all this relate to the Earths field saving us from being turned into toast from the Sun's and other harmful effects. Do we go into a stage of danger and then end up being safe again once the field is reversed? They do not make mention of this. I know that a few solar flares and computers and power grids can go down when Earth can't deflect it. With it growing weaker are we now at great risk?

The Sun's magnetic field reverses every eleven years. It's the relative orientation of the solar and terrestrial magnetic field that would make a difference. Even when the fields are oriented in opposite directions (thereby weakening the earth's protection from the solar wind) the terrestrial field is still strong enough to protect us.

Now, I'm not sure whether the earth's field would remain uniformly strong as it reversed over 2000 years, but if it did, then the sun is a non-issue. We might even be okay if it did weaken, because currents in the earth's ionosphere would induce a magnetic field in response to the solar effects, as occurs on other planets that have no magnetic field such as mercury.

Re:electronic dependence - Monster Cables

[Nom du Keyboard]

I'm using Monster brand cables...

It won't affect you because after you've paid the over-priced tariff for those cables you can't afford electricity at these rapidly rising rates anyway.

Circuit City tried to sell my mother those $70 connectors with her new 37" Sharp TV, along with a $85 Super Surge Protector. Both, she was told, were essential to the full operation of her new television. Fortunately she said no to that, although the TV has HDMI sans HDCP - which they conveniently neglected to mention.

reader grabbing

[suv4x4]

Did you notice how the title speaks about "upcoming" reversal and the article about "reversal in 2000 yr".. I don't know about you, but upcoming for me would mean at least while I'm ALIVE, no?

Re:Adverse effect on magnetic storage?

[Xtifr]

> is it at all possible that a switch in the earth's polarity would damage/erase any data

No. The Earth's magnetic field is pervasive, but not very strong. And what there is has a negative/disruptive effect on magnetic media in any case. During the Earth's transition period, magnetically-stored data should be more safe, if anything. But probably not enough to measure.

When I worked for a HD company, years ago, we did find that one of our magnetic-layer deposition machines had a very slightly higher failure rate than the others, and that one did happen to be at ninety degrees to the others, and someone once suggested that it might be being affected by geomagnetism, but most of the engineers thought that was nonsense, and it was never investigated further, as far as I know. Frankly, I think it was just a slightly more flaky machine--it was the first one the company had built, IIRC.

Were there magnetic reversals?

[pjdeets2]

I would like to know what evidence there is that there ever was a magnetic reversal. Check out this page from a book by Walt Brown [creationscience.com]. There is a section about this a little over halfway down the page under the section called Magnetic Variations on the Ocean Floor. I think this is where people come up with the notion of past reversals, but there is no true evidence.

Less strange than fiction

[haelduksf]

There's an excellent novel by N. Lee Wood called Faraday's Orphans [amazon.com] set in the apocalyptic aftermath of just such a reversal. Probably inaccurate, but interesting.

Re:Slightly off...

[ceoyoyo]

Not quite. Skin cancer is believed to be caused by UV radiation. The magnetic field has absolutely no effect on UV. What the magnetic field DOES help to block is charged particles, particularly protons.

People living at high latitudes and on the equator or flying planes for a living already get quite a bit more proton radiation than everybody else. British Airways has monitored their flight crews for a couple of decades and found that, despite the higher exposure, life expectancy was higher and cancer rates lower.

Solution: Solar wind is going to create a new MF!

[mha]

I read this story in a German magazine a few days ago (http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/weltraum/0,151 8,300232,00.html). They pointed to a an article about a study (http://xxx.uni-augsburg.de/abs/astro-ph/0404580) that says simulations of a complete failure of the earths mag. field is going to lead to a complete replacement by a new mag. field - created by the charged particles of the solar wind when they encounter the upper parts of the earths atmposphere. They also point out that this simulation seems credible because nowhere could anyone find any signs of mass extinctions or even mass mutations the many times the earths m.f. reversed so far.

Global Warming

[cmarkn]

The timing of these measurements is interesting, in that the date when the magnetic field began to fall is about the same time as the global temperature began to climb. Although I wouldn't dare suggest a mechanism for the relationship, it appears possible that there is one: and it is even mentioned in the article - as the magnetic field weakens, less solar radiation is deflected. What isn't mentioned is that as more radiation hits Earth, the warmer it gets. This relationship is certainly something worth investigating.

Re:Duh.

[jofer]

"As for GPS (the most accurate versions) two appliances at opposite ends of a vessel together with suitable calculations would give you the orientation of the vessel. (I have no idea if this is ever done.)"

This is indeed done. In fact, research vessels often have at least 4 GPS recievers--one at each corner of the ship--to give real-time information on not only the direction of the vessel, but its attitude in three dimensions, as well. This is needed to correct data gathered by various instrumentation (i.e. multi-beam bathymetry, etc.) I haven't seen it, as I haven't actually been on any research cruises yet, but I'm told it's quite cool to see a real-time display of the ship's orientation as you feel it roll beneath you!

Yes we survived

[Danathar]

But the real question is what percentage of people DIED!

Re:long term effects

[cordt]

...That is not long enough time for a new species to evolve...

Actually, evolution comes in fits and spirts. Something that Steven J. Gould refered to as "Punctuated Equilibrium." The rate of evolution is dictated by the instability of the environment, and/or increases in selective pressures. And an environment with increased amounts of solar radiation and the instability of the magnetosphere may well account for a sudden increase in the rate of evolution, perhaps even spawning an adaptive radiation or six...

If interested, this link http://ucsu.colorado.edu/~theobal/PE.html [colorado.edu] provides more info than any layman would really want about the topic of my irrelevant tangent...