iTunes Sales Ban Does Increase CD Sales 185
Guinnessy writes "According to the New York Times, some music labels have deliberately stopped selling some new singles on online stories such as iTunes or Rhapsody while promoting songs on the radio, so that listeners will rush out to buy the CD album instead. The album appears in itunes at a later date. Not everyone seems to think this is a good idea. From the article: 'The labels are shooting themselves in the foot,' says Rhapsody's Tim Quirk. However, Ne-Yo's CD In My Own Words sold 301,000 copies using this method. Chris Brown's Run It, that was in the itunes store, sold 154,000 copies in its first week. Ne-Yo's So Sick was downloaded approximately 3.4 million times on the peer to peer networks during the week of his album release while the album Run It!"was downloaded approximately 5.3 million times in the same release period."
Liars, Damned Liars and Statisticians (Score:5, Insightful)
From one sample to conclusion (Score:5, Insightful)
There are SO many variables to be taken into account that could influence that. Do they target the same audience? To give a very drastic example, if you compare CD sales to download of a Techno song and a Country song, it does NOT matter when it comes out on which medium to predict almost flawlessly which one has a higher download and which one has a higher CD count.
Were they released at the same time? If it is released around Xmas, that would boost CD sales compared to downloads (it IS after all easier to wrap a CD in gift paper than a bunch of bits). What's the weather like on release day? Bad weather and I'd rather download it instead of going out in the pouring rain.
Do the CDs offer the same "goodies" that come with the CD? Do they both offer the lyrics in the booklet, for example, or some pictures of the artist? How about the CD cover?
So please, before drawing conclusion from ONE SINGLE sample, at least make absolutely sure that the results are comparable. Or, better, get a few 100 samples before jumping to a conclusion!
Aaaaaand, let's not forget: If it's not available from legal download... especially if the CD is DRMed into uselessness.
Who the fuck are Chris Brown and Ne-Yo? (Score:4, Insightful)
so what does iTunes to to Edison cylinder sales? (Score:5, Insightful)
selling CDs promotes ripping without any content copy-limiting software system. if the pinheads in Big Music had their schytte together, they'd stop shipping physical media, and sell it all online through iTunes and the like.
but all they have together is their off-key whining....
Re:Liars, Damned Liars and Statisticians (Score:5, Insightful)
So one can reasonably conclude that iTunes, at least in an indirect way, is forcing labels to sell their music cheaper in order to secure more sales!
I don't think iTunes is going anywhere, but if it's presence causes labels to actually price aggresively the way it should be, then I think it's a good thing.
Sample OK, Conclusion NOT (Score:3, Insightful)
What they're obviously missing is that denying iTunes sales increases CD sales which translate into more piracy.
Good plan.
You know, I have a problem with this.... (Score:4, Insightful)
First you are taking one individual CD's sales through a store and comparing them to another CD's sales through an online distribution. While this test is almost impossible to perform (release the song at the same time through both channels and see the online distribution win and people would say that it simply hurt the CD sales, or alternatively, vice versa), it might have been a better comparison to simply take one popular artist's newer album, release it exclusively online and compare it with previous releases. Even this is not an indestructable argument, but at least you would be comparing Granny Smiths to Red Delicious, and not fruits to vegetables.
Now I am by no means a scientific person (having a greater interest in history) but it astounds me (through every century) when one side tries to sound scientific by saying, look! ho! this way works better and one can see it conclusively because the stars are in the sky and not in the ocean! This was pretty much a complete red herring of an article.
amazing, headline news (Score:4, Insightful)
Wow, that's so Statistical! (Score:5, Insightful)
This fails so many statistical tests for process control and would never even be eligible for something like an Annova (test for statistical difference) tukey-kramer test. They find one demographic of people, internet buyers. Split them in two. Offer the download to 33% of the group, deny the download to 33% of the group, and let the other 33% have the choice to steal/buy online/buy the cd ect. All the while exposing them to the exact same marketing, radio singles, and ensuring their purchasing habbits are the same. Only then can you even begin to test which group is statistically more likely to alter their purchasing habbits.
In other words, doing all of the above is hard and takes time and just coming up with bogus conclusions is so much easier.
I can't wait until the RIAA gets so much control over the music industry that they legally charge each user every time they listen to the song. Hell, they'll charge the user 1 cent per second the song is played. It wouldn't be fair to pay the same price for a 2 minute song and a 4 minute song would it?
When that day happens, and it looks like it might, the RIAA will finally implode and independant music will return in a blaze of glory. Or be outlawed as a potential communication medium for terrorists. One of the two anyway.
Re:Liars, Damned Liars and Statisticians (Score:3, Insightful)
But you can't just compare revenue or profit anyway. Song X frequently makes more money than song Y. That doesn't mean that X's marketing strategy is better - it may have just been a better song, or appealed more to the masses.
Not only what I said before but... (Score:3, Insightful)
Shocker (Score:5, Insightful)
The real story here is not "Itunes hurts cd sales" its "Itunes promotes better music". The a-la-carte style of music downloading that itunes offers punishes crappy cds for sucking and rewards good ones for being good.
So, where should I buy music? (Score:3, Insightful)
I don't get it. (Score:3, Insightful)
I don't get it...
Re:Sample OK, Conclusion NOT (Score:5, Insightful)
If it's the CD rip that eventually gets on the networks or the iTunes. If they had a simple watermark at the end of the song that would show up in the resulting encodings and be detected they could track which method is actually contributing to piracy. If people who are more likely to purchase a CD and rip it to serve on the file sharing networks or if it's the iTunes users that serve it up. With a couple hundred songs marked and tracked that'd be compelling data either way.
In any case all it takes is one person to borrow/buy/steal/download a track and serve it up.
It makes a lot more sense to make it cheap enough and easy enough to get a song that illegally downloading it is not benificial. Not threatening them with vague lawsuites that people really don't care about. And not DRM crap that makes it better to download it illegally to use on the multitude of products out there being marketed by the same companies that restrict the customers ability to use them (cough-sony-cough).
If there were a service that let people pay a small price for music by the track in a high quality standardized format and allowed them to do whatever they wanted with it without any draconian DRM restrictions, it would be an alternative that would capture the majority of the market share overnight. And at the same time would make the p2p networks that much less attractive.
(didn't hear it from me, allofmp3)
It's not something new, but needs to be said again to these execs: Basic economics 101, if you offer an easier product at a cheaper price without a significant quality drop you will make more money in volume than your competitors.
The competitors in this case are virus ridden, illegal, spotty selection, gun to the head, can go away at any time, P2P networks.
You hear that RIAA? You could make millions happy, rake in billions of dollars in sales, have more volume with significantly less overhead and 3rd party costs. All you have to do is look at the market and act like business people and fulfill the obvious need.
Re:Liars, Damned Liars and Statisticians (Score:5, Insightful)
Only if. (Score:3, Insightful)
Missing numbers... (Score:5, Insightful)
Ne-Yo's CD In My Own Words sold 301,000 copies using this method. Chris Brown's Run It, that was in the itunes store, sold 154,000 copies in its first week. Ne-Yo's So Sick was downloaded approximately 3.4 million times on the peer to peer networks during the week of his album release while the album Run It! was downloaded approximately 5.3 million times in the same release period.
OK, so how many downloads from "Run It" were sold in the ITunes store during that time period? If it was only about 50-100K songs, then they may have a point, but if it was something along the lines of 500K songs, then all they did was to give up some profits on CDs to make the same money on downloads. So, yeah, Duh, people are going to buy less CDs if they have the option to buy a CD or buy from iTunes than they will if they only have the choice to buy CDs.
It's like a deli that sells both ham and roast beef sandwiches complaining that they don't sell as many ham sandwiches as the deli down the street that only sells ham sandwiches. Big deal...
Poor summary (Score:2, Insightful)
It looks to me like the record companies took a page from Microsoft's book.
Re:so what does iTunes to to Edison cylinder sales (Score:2, Insightful)
With online distributors, they lose control--they rely on another company to distribute their product because they were to narrowminded to innovate the idea of legal online electronic dirstrobution in the first place, even though they had the best chance of anyone to successfully pull it off... The industry as a whole will never move to such a system. We'll see music on DRM'ed holographic data crystals before they'll sell all of their music online, providing the whole industry dosen't collapse first.
Correlation and Causation (Score:3, Insightful)
Thank you,
Bryan
Re:Oh, yeah... (Score:4, Insightful)
What about the artist? (Score:3, Insightful)
Let's take that arguement for a second. Ne-Yo now has around 3.7 million people with an interest in his music, while Chris Brown has around 5.4 million people interested in his music. Because artists don't make much money off cd sales, they make it on people showing up to concerts and other options they have. So who is in a more actionable position? And how much money does the artist get from an itunes album sale versus a physical sale?
I can see why the RIAA is getting upset though. The artists might actually make a buck and not need a monopoly pushing their product.
Re:Liars, Damned Liars and Statisticians (Score:5, Insightful)
Also not mentioned here is that the Brown album was available for download ONLY for over three months before they released the physical album. '
so what I see being 'proved' is that:
- Disallowing CD sales for 3 months cuts into CD sales.
- Cutting the prices for CDs increases CD sales.
- exhausting your Radio play before releasing an album can cut into album sales.
- Forcing fans to download music increases downloads.
- Being available online for 3 months can increase downloads.
and for number one......Bare statistics can be misleading.
((mumbles something about hanging by the toenails and being beaten by an organic carrot))
Think of this logic being used 10 years ago (Score:2, Insightful)
Record Artist to record label: Oh and by the way I do not want my newest album on this new format... what is it called... VD?.... LSD.... oh yea... CD... what ever it is I do not want anything to hurt my album sales.
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iTunes is not the enemy. It is simply another delivery device to get your product to your customers. If someone buys a CD... you get money... if someone buys that same CD from iTunes.... guess what.... you get money. And sense there is no packaging, manufacturing, or shipping cost with iTunes you actually make more money. What do you care if we buy our music from Wal-mart or Best Buy or iTunes?
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I bet in a few weeks Island records will release a statement of retraction. Saying it was all a big misunderstanding and what they meant was unlicensed music download sites, and they would be proud and honored to have their music on iTunes.
Re:Overheard at the RIAA (Score:3, Insightful)
Do I have a "right" to pass up on the newest lump of turd to come out of Britany Spears's ass at the CD store and buy it from iTunes instead?
Is it my "right" to not have to wait a few weeks to download it from an on-line music store?
I don't get it.
The iTunes first track outsold the CD first track. (Score:2, Insightful)
CD First:
iTMS first:
Total, 421,000 copies for the CD first track. 454,000 copies for the iTMS first track. Yeah, the CD first album sold more copies, but that was at a reduced price of $7.98... cheaper than the 'album' is sold on iTMS. [apple.com] Wow, big surprise there... you lower the price of something and you sell more of it! That's news? No, that's not news... here's the big news:
Once again, a story on Slashdot is misleading and flame worthy. It's almost like they do it on purpose to sell more page views or something... Noooo, Slashdot is 'news for nerds' and would never treat its readership as if they were illiterate morons.
Sick of the Song (Score:2, Insightful)
If the song is played for weeks on the radio before it is released then people are sick of it. This seems to happen with so many new singles these days, especially from the big names. They are hyped and hyped and played and played to death so much that no one wants them by the time they are released.
Re:Liars, Damned Liars and Statisticians (Score:3, Insightful)
Of course they wouldn't. With the hardcover book, you pay more money, but there is a perceived higher value. The customer knows that the producer does this to maximise profit, but they also get higher value.
If the publisher only produced the paperback at initial higher price, customers would just feel ripped off and boycott that product. There is a thin line between maximising profit and ripoff. If your customers think you crossed that line, you're in trouble.
Re:Liars, Damned Liars and Statisticians (Score:2, Insightful)
That is exactly what the music industry needs to keep in mind.