The Financial Future of Space Travel 414
gurps_npc writes " This CNNMoney story discusses the financial future of space travel. In particular it gives some nice names and numbers, such as Bezos, Musk and 3554 Amun. 3554 Amun is an small metalic asteroid that crosses Earth's pass (not on collission course) and contains over 20 trillion US dollars worth of precious metal. It is a great fact to know when trying to explain to flat-earth types that don't understand why we waste money on space travel."
$20 trillion ... so what (Score:2)
Re:$20 trillion ... so what (Score:2)
So, more accurate to say that it is $20 trillion that could be feasibly recovered. Personally tha
Re:$20 trillion ... so what (Score:2)
Re:$20 trillion ... so what (Score:2)
Plenty of solar energy to concentrate with the mirror.
So, if it were me, I'd build the refinery next to the asteroid.
Expense and difficulties ... (Score:3, Interesting)
Just like war: the people who benefit most are in the high tech fields.
Re:$20 trillion ... so what (Score:3, Insightful)
Ahh, well, at least the existence of this "gold mine in the skies" gives me a good reason to say "Great, so pri
Re:$20 trillion ... so what (Score:3, Funny)
Re:$20 trillion ... so what (Score:2)
Please. I think you're severely underestimating the current administration.
Could you go over the economics? (Score:2)
Re:Could you go over the economics? (Score:2)
Re:$20 trillion ... so what (Score:2)
It's only expensive 'cause we don't have it.
Re:$20 trillion ... so what (Score:2)
Space will paid for through public/private (Score:2, Interesting)
Seriously, without government action, the south would have no electric power, the Internet would not be here, and people in the boondocks would never have mail service, because the F
Re:Space will paid for through public/private (Score:2)
Isn't that pretty much the point? Government helps set up the infrastructure and foundation for private enterprise to prosper. Once private enterprise has got self-sustaining economic activity in a particular field, government can then focus its resources on the next budding field.
Re:Space will paid for through public/private (Score:2)
Incorrect. FedEx and UPS will happily deliver to the boondocks -- maybe not every day, but you'll get your package. Neither FedEx nor UPS are the government -- they compete with each other, so the day one decided to deliver to the boondocks was the day the other had to provide better service to the boondocks or face going out of business. The government could completely ignore the boondocks and would ne
Re:Space will paid for through public/private (Score:2)
And even if centralized power is bad, there is no solution. If you decentralize it, eventually somebodys going to come along and start concentrating it again. Centralized power may be bad. but its also inevitable.
Owning an asteroid (Score:2)
Re:Owning an asteroid (Score:4, Funny)
And as soon as you do, you can expect a visit from SCO's lawyers. [slashdot.org]
Re:Owning an asteroid (Score:5, Informative)
Space property rights are a very murky and ambiguous area, but one which should get resolved if we want to have any hope of expanding out there permanently. An article by Sam Dinkin in the Space Review on Property rights and space commercialization [thespacereview.com] has a fairly nice overview of the issues. A quote:
Space property rights will probably not spark a space transportation boom that will rival the railroad boom, the airplane boom, or the automobile boom. But there will be no boom if there are no property rights. Leaving the regulatory regime the same is a recipe for continued sclerosis.
If we do nothing, space will look a lot more like Antarctica than Alaska. Without property rights there will not be adequate investment and space resources will be underutilized. Establishing property rights in space will cost millions, not billions, and can be done decades ahead of any commercialization or colonization. It's time to set the stage to break out of the exploration mode of Columbus and get on with establishing the regulatory regime to lay the foundation for the next Plymouth Rock.
Re:Owning an asteroid (Score:2)
Maybe the solution is to pay people not to go into space? That way the greedy bastards will take the money and stay on Earth leaving the non-greedy people to fly.
Re:Owning an asteroid (Score:2)
Space property rights are a very murky and ambiguous area...
It's murky until you realise that property rights in space are exactly the same as property rights on Earth. Property is established using the threat of violence.
In the case of personal property, that violence is distilled through the laws of a community, but the threat of being shot, beaten or dragged off to jail is still there.
In the case of national territory, the threat of violence is much less subtle.
Re:Owning an asteroid (Score:3, Insightful)
See, here's the problem. We see it now with people patenting things they could never accomplish, paying a few thousand dollars in application and lawyer fees to obtain the property rights to things they'll never actually own.
Property rights in advance is foolish, stupid, dumb, idiotic, and any number of other names you can assign. Do you know why the Gold Rush was a Rush? Because people could go west and stake out a plot of land and o
Re:Owning an asteroid (Score:2)
If you have enough weapons to repel any force from your mining facilities then you get to keep your asteriod.
Same as it was in the wild west.
Re:Owning an asteroid (Score:2)
It'd be like a ship dropping buoys in the ocean and claim this is now our property. International waters? Never heard of it, I just took this as personal property since nobody else had. Has having "international waters" stopped people travelling over it? Harvesting resources from i
Re: (Score:2)
Something like IAEA (Score:2)
Re:Something like IAEA (Score:2)
How exactly are you going to change the orbit of a few million tons of iron significantly enough to hit the Earth, let alone be able to aim the thing at a particular location?
Re:Owning an asteroid (Score:2)
The same way one comes to own anything else: by being able to force everyone else to keep their hands off it. On Earth that is usually accomplished by borrowing states resources as your own via legal action, but on frontier environment like space you need to have a fighting force of your own.
Forget flags, and fill the surface of the asteroid with anti-spacecraft guns.
Re:Owning an asteroid (Score:2)
Now, of course, once you have property, you must defend it. If I come to your asteroid, detonate a small nuke just above your ship, then walk around and pluck up all your f
And it better not hit the earth (Score:2)
The discouraging thing is that we probably could, today, build automated spacecraft that could reach the asteroid and set off nuclear bombs to change the orbit. It would be profitable to nudge the thing into earth orbit. And if somebody screws up, we lose the planet.
Re:And it better not hit the earth (Score:3, Funny)
(I am joking...:-)
Re:And it better not hit the earth (Score:3, Interesting)
From: http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/ [arizona.edu]
Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 161.00 km = 99.98 miles
Projectile Diameter: 2000.00 m = 6560.00 ft = 1.24 miles
Projectile Density: 8000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 17.00 km/s = 10.56 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2750 kg/m3
Target Type: Crystalline Rock
Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 4.84 x 1021 Joules = 1.16 x 106 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 5
Re:And it better not hit the earth (Score:4, Interesting)
Bullshit. You'd need a micrometer to measure its tidal effect.
Moon: mass = 7x10e22 kg, distance= 360,000 km
Asteroid: mass about 2x10e13 kg, distance (say) 100 km
ratio of gravitational forces:m1/m2* (r1/r2)e2 = roughly 1/270.
No. Rockets "push against" their exhaust, not what they launch from. However, if they used a mass-driver to accelerate the payloads, the asteroid would be pushed back. But it's a simple calculation.
Re:And it better not hit the earth (Score:2)
Re:And it better not hit the earth (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:And it better not hit the earth (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:And it better not hit the earth (Score:2)
Sorry to have been too abrupt. I may well have made a mistake, but I assumed a ball of radius 1 km, density 5 (as for iron ore). If it were made of solid platinum, it would be about 4 times heavier; still negligible astronomically (unless it impacted, of course).
Re:And it better not hit the earth (Score:2)
$20 Trillion?!?! (Score:4, Funny)
Re:$20 Trillion?!?! (Score:2)
Re:$20 Trillion?!?! (Score:2)
Think about an individual being in too much debt, now is that "an investment" in the person? Think about junk bonds at a low interest rate, is that "an investment"?
Re:$20 Trillion?!?! (Score:2)
We might actually be able to pay off the national debt!!!
After the first trillion dollars of precious metals they might not be so precious any more.
Re:$20 Trillion?!?! (Score:2)
Sounds disrupful to the economy.... (Score:2)
Re:Sounds disrupful to the economy.... (Score:2, Informative)
"There are three key things to know about 3554 Amun: First, its orbit crosses that of Earth; second, it's the smallest M-class (metal-bearing) asteroid yet discovered; and finally, it contains (at today's prices) roughly $8 trillion worth of iron and nickel, $6 trillion of cobalt, and $6 trillion of platinumlike metals." - FTFA
"3554 Amun is an M-type Aten asteroid (meaning it crosses Earth's orbit) and a Venus-crosser. It was discovered on 4 March 1986 by Caro
The Two Fallacies: Ore grade and interest rates (Score:2)
Re:The Two Fallacies: Ore grade and interest rates (Score:2)
True, it's energy intensive, but solar furnaces are available 24x7. It's just a big bit of bent aluminum foil- *really* lightweight to pack. Several thousand degrees... (surface temperature of the sun). Costs very little. And platin
Re: (Score:2)
She's a gusher (Score:2)
Re:She's a gusher (Score:3, Informative)
FYI, the moon Titan [wikipedia.org] is pretty much covered in "oil reserves."
Re:She's a gusher (Score:2)
Re:She's a gusher (Score:3, Informative)
I might be misreading it, but I'm under the impression that while its still uncertain whether or not there's liquid hydrocarbons on the surface, there's almost certainly hydrocarbons in Titan's thick atmosphere.
Is methane good enough? (Score:3, Informative)
Because Jupiter and Saturn have heaps of methane (many times the mass of the Earth) and Neptune and Uranus are practically made of the stuff.
Re:Is methane good enough? (Score:2)
Available jobs at private spaceflight companies (Score:2)
* Bigelow Aerospace: [bigelowaerospace.com] Inflatable space station modules for orbital research and tourism. Despite being inflatable, their modules a
Will it really be worth $20 trillion? (Score:2)
Re:Will it really be worth $20 trillion? (Score:2)
All that is needed is a clear goal (Score:4, Interesting)
People assume that things will fare better if profit-driven private enterprise runs the space exploring show.
To a great degree I think it's not as simple as it looks. First the obvious cheap routes to profit from space are already taken : putting satellites in LEO and geosynchronous orbit. There is already a lot of competition on that market between the US, Europe, Japan, India and China. Unless someone comes up with a space elevator that works or similar disruptive technology, this is not likely to change much.
Essentially private space exploring enterprises is now at the level NASA was at in 1950 or so. It took a huge financial effort and a large dedicated team of incredible people to go to the Moon in 1970 or so (and bring back small samples of rock). While not all of this is lost, and I believe it is possible to repeat the feat, I can't see much profit in that particular endeavour. Colour me doubtful with respect with space tourism. It will be a while before this is safe enough for companies to ship people for small leaps above the atmosphere without getting sued out of existence at the first accident.
Getting to the Moon and the asteroids and mining them has been a mainstay of science fiction since it has existed. Everyone knows many asteroids are metal-rich and could turn a nice buck if they could be exploited. Everyone knows the Moon is littered with He3, and theoretically achieving sustained nuclear fusion might be easiser there. However various governments have known this as well, for decades. In contrast to starry eyed reporters and somewhat naive slashdot users, they have run the numbers and found that with current technology their exploitation is simply not economically feasible. Again we need disruptive technology and it's not there yet.
While I'm not a particular big fan of governements either, and not particularly the US's, I'd like to remind everyone here that so far, in spite of their failings, it is them who have driven investments, research, exploration and exploitation. They are so far ahead of any and all private space exploration outfits that it's not funny.
Even with the help of billions and indeed, trillions of dollars of private funds it will take a very long time for private enterprise to catch up, let alone leap ahead. I don't doubt that if Bill Gates and Warren Buffet combined their wealth they'd be able to build a Saturn V equivalent in a small number of years, but I can't see anyone succeeding in convincing them it would be a good and sound business proposition.
It may happen, but I wouldn't hold my breath. While private enterprise is busy gathering investors with nice sounding business plans and pooh poohing all that we learned in the last 50 years or so of actual space exploration because, you know, gov't did it and that's not relevant, NASA and the others are still exploring the solar system, last I checked. Apparently there's a plan to go to Mars, or so I heard.
Really all that NASA and others require is a sound plan, a clear worthy goal that has some chance of succeeding. What many people seem to be missing here is that in spite of searching and thinking hard that plan was never found. The rest followed.
Re:All that is needed is a clear goal (Score:3, Interesting)
I don't think anybody believes it will be safer, just easier to justify in the long run.
While not all of this is lost, and I believe it is possible to repeat the feat, I can't see much profit in that particular endeavour. Colour me doubtful with respect with space tourism. It will be a while before this is safe enough for companies to ship people for small leaps above the atmosphere without getting
That's the spirit (Score:2)
It's such prudent thinking like that kept your ancestors in Britain.
It's not 1950, and the knowledge required to design and build a space vehicle is no longer in the realm of research, but of engineering
ugh. lost me in the opening... (Score:4, Informative)
I may be nitpicking here, but the premiss is plain WRONG.
America's leadership in the semiconductor industry in general and the CPU industry in perticular is direct result of the space race and the arms race. I prefare the former rather then the latter. The challange of making apollos on-board computer directly influenced the development of ICs, and later the CPU. intel would'nt have been if it were not for apollo (or at least would have come much later).
Re:ugh. lost me in the opening... (Score:2)
Influenced, perhaps, but if I remember correctly it used off-the-shelf ICs. It's a pretty neat piece of hardware and software for its time, but is hardly responsible for bringing us Pentium chips.
20 Trillion Dollars? (Score:2)
Re:20 Trillion Dollars? (Score:2)
20 trillion US dollars at current prices (Score:4, Insightful)
You can guarantee that if you manage to mine this rock, prices would go down. Supply and demand.
Re:20 trillion US dollars at current prices (Score:2)
If the asteroid landed safely on earth and hole, then that could be true.
But the cost of space travel, will rise the cost of the material. The space miners are not going to work at say at around $60,000 a year. They will be paid closer of $1,000,000 a year to do the work. Plus there is cost of travel, and living conditions where all living conditions will need to be provided, Air, Heat, AC, Protection from radiation, Food, W
Re:20 trillion US dollars at current prices (Score:2)
Why? I didn't claim that this needed to be done in space. But then, mining in space vs. safely landing a 2Km-wide rock: I wouldn't know which is easier. And nobody said that conventional mining was free either: I wouldn't know which is cheaper.
But I do know that if there's more platinum around, platinum will cost less.
Energy. (Score:3, Informative)
The asteroid, small as it is on the scale of things, weighs a lot. A real lot.
This means that changing the delta-V to get the metals to Earth will require a lot of energy. We may well be able to do that with the Sun one day. However, there is also the gravitational field energy to be considered. Merging the gravity wells will release an awful lot of energy, which will then need to be soaked up somehow, or we'll make carbon emission worries look like wondering vaguely if you left the gas on.
In short we'd better build that space elevator and a portable solar sail before we even think about mining asteroids on a grand scale.
Justin.
Re:Energy. (Score:2)
Well, let's say you have the asteroid travelling in earth's orbit, slightly trailing us but within earth's gravitational pull. Velocity difference ~0. Now earth is pulling it in. On a quick guesstimate, how hard do you think the impact would be? Ok, so it's not the "destruction of all mankind" kind that a head-on collision would be, but it would not be gentle...
Interesting points but... (Score:2)
Knowledge is more important than precious metals (Score:2)
But the knowledge gained from exploring Space and the Solar System is priceless.
Re:eek (Score:3, Interesting)
Diamonds are cheap stones (Score:2)
Just because you have something doesn't mean you have to sell it, especially when it's not in your interest to do so.
Re:Diamonds are cheap stones (Score:2)
Where's the flaw?
There isn't an open market (Score:2)
e.g.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/198202/diamond [theatlantic.com]
Re:Diamonds are cheap stones (Score:2)
That would be true if De Beers [wikipedia.org] didn't own most of the diamond mines in the world. They hold a near total monopoly on the diamond industry. If you want a diamond, chances are it came from a De Beers mine.
Re:Spain and the New World (Score:2)
And in slightly more related grounds, the wealth also destroyed Spain in the end, leading to an economy of bankers and people living the rich life on nothing but credit. There is a reason Spain isn't exactly on the forefront of the world economy anymore. In a very real way, the only people to benefit from all that gold in more than the short term were the British. They used the wealth they
Re:Spain and the New World (Score:2)
Just like the Martians, living in their reservations deep underneath Mars' crust after trading all of their land away for a single bead.
Re:Spain and the New World (Score:2)
Sadly, most people can't comprehend that.
Mining it makes more than ALT-PRINT KEY (Score:2)
To print $50b in TBILL/BONDS, takes 2 seconds on a FED RESERVE table offer monthly, all it does is TRUELY devalue the present
currency. Spending REAL $$$ to min $50billion (one years worth btw) takes effort and real people benefit, unlike
T-BILLS.
Go read financialsense.com
Fake wealth = monetory inflation at 10% with credit interest rates at 4.5% = 5.5% spread gains, out of 10trillion, thats 550bil
Re:Get rid of the bean counters (Score:5, Interesting)
That's the idealistic response, but this is the kind of thing that will get NASA out of the space business and get people into it who know how to turn a profit on it. In the long run, this is what can make space travel widely accessible, not a government agency.
Re:Get rid of the bean counters (Score:2)
Re:Get rid of the bean counters (Score:2)
There's room for both. Let commercial entities fund research and development in order to extract asteroid minerals (or whatever financial benefits emerge). Let NASA tackle the deeper, pure-science research. They'll benefit from the commercial endeavours, because they can use the
Re:Get rid of the bean counters (Score:2)
If we do not aspire, as a society, to make Star Trek a reality, then we are doomed: we are trapped into our own petit interests for profit, with little regard to anything else.
The real question is: should we be more like Ferengi, or like Vulcans
Re:Get rid of the bean counters (Score:2)
It strikes me that your cause/effect may be backwards there.
On the other hand, a ST-like future is a pipe dream.
Re:Get rid of the bean counters (Score:2)
While it would be great if we could launch people (and things) into space cheaply I don't see widespread investment in it any time soon. Yeah it would be great to travel in space but is there actually any point? It's not like there is really actually anywhere to go. It would be cool to be able to go from one side of the Earth to the other in a few hours but that only requires sub-orbital flight not full blow wizzing between planets collecting asteroids flight.
Re:Get rid of the bean counters (Score:2)
Ideally, yes. But we've been trying to do it that way for 50 years and it hasn't worked.
It's been 36 years since we first went to the moon. Clearly the technology exists to get us there and back. So why are there no colonies four decades later? Because the government is in charge of space travel. There is no one up there to send soft money, votes or bribes back down. No one lives there, so th
Re: (Score:2)
Re:Get rid of the bean counters (Score:2)
Re:selling precious medals impacts their price (Score:2)
Have != try to sell. Check the diamonds, we do have far too many diamonds, but De Beers managed to market them very nicely and keep the price high for more than a century. If the De Beers cartel wasn't monopoly, the price of diamonds wouldn't be a tenth of what it currently is.
In fact, had De Beers not existed, no one would give a flying fuck about diamonds.
Re:selling precious medals impacts their price (Score:2)
Can I name my ship "Serenity"?
Re:selling precious medals impacts their price (Score:2)
Millions of people would lose their jobs.
Re:selling precious medals impacts their price (Score:2)
The GP does have a point though, in theory. Finding a more efficient way to produce something or obtain raw materials generates overall more wealth (or rather, wealth potential) within society. Economics is not a zero-sum game (for the rich to get richer the poor don't need to get poorer, since we can all make new "stuff"). In theory those jobs lost could be put to work creating something else, which could make other products cheaper in turn (increased labor supply in other markets), or making something new
Re:selling precious medals impacts their price (Score:2)
Re:selling precious medals impacts their price (Score:2)
I see your point, but OTOH, in a "free" labor market, nobody is forced to do that work are they? If that person doing the mining didn't want to risk their life in space they could find a job elsewhere, in theory.
The price for such labor will no doubt be set by the laws of supply and demand; they'll find the price point at which somebody skilled enough will be willing to do it. The price probably won't be all that high.
Re:62000 miles (Score:2)
If anything, the space elevator is going to take stuff to a place in geosynchronous orbit (~30000 km, iirc), but of course it could be possible to leave early.
After that, it's rockets all the way, and they go a lot faster than 100 mph.
Re:62000 miles (Score:2, Informative)
Lengthening the cable enough to remove need of counterweight is mentioned as a possible way to launch things out of earth orbit.
Rocket speeds tangential to the cable? I'm sure they've thought that one through, though.
Re:62000 miles (Score:2)
Since the cable is a line, the tangent is the cable. Maybe you meant orthogonal? (Although I'm not really sure what you're talking about
Glad there's another space elevator skeptic. (Score:2)
The truth is a space elevator will have to travel at tens of miles per hour and then the huge distances we're talking about become a big problem, it'd take days to get
Re:astroid question (Score:2)
No, but it does contain e