The Technology Hype Cycle 193
jira writes "What does it take for a new gadget to be succesfull on the market? Which technologies will become part of everyday life in the future? BBC investigates the Techology Hype Cycle."
"Conversion, fastidious Goddess, loves blood better than brick, and feasts most subtly on the human will." -- Virginia Woolf, "Mrs. Dalloway"
Easy! (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Easy! (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Easy! (Score:2)
Re:Easy! (Score:2, Funny)
90% marketing (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:90% marketing (Score:5, Insightful)
Keep in mind that you'll only be selling them up until your competitor makes a more useful version. Anyone remember that the Rio player used to be king before the iPod came along?
Make it useful. Your pocketbook will thank you in the long term.
Re:90% marketing (Score:1)
Re:90% marketing (Score:5, Insightful)
making it useful is just one way to make a product desirable, if you make it hip and cool and religiously(fashion can be one) compatible.
that's how you get people to buy a pair of tennis shoes for 1000$+.
Re:90% marketing (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:90% marketing (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:90% marketing (Score:2, Interesting)
IMO, the iPod's biggest advantage is its simple hardware interface combined with a menu system. You could easily pack more features under an "Advanced" menu, and the physical layout wouldn't have to change at all.
Re:90% marketing (Score:2)
More like you=failed logic class.
He said "I," implying he spoke for himself.
Re:90% marketing (Score:2)
The iPod is a good product, I don't understand why some people feel the need to bash it.
Re:90% marketing (Score:5, Interesting)
Marketing can make people aware of a new type of product or make people aware of a problem they didn't know they had before (this was really successful back in the early 1900s when razor companies convinced American women they had to shave their legs and armpits), but it's not the only problem.
It seems to me that what is successful (for the products they showed) is related to a simple, distinctive product that offers something tangible. The iPod can play music and store a lot more than Walkmans. You actually pay for it, so you know what you get. When you buy a song on ITMS, you buy it; not you have the right to listen to it until you stop paying your bill. This is why Apple's ITMS was more successful than the other record companies' earlier attempts.
They talked about satellite radio not being as popular. I think the problem is you have to buy the product (the head unit), plus get a subscription. Barriers of entry are high, and then its one more bill that you pay every month. With DVRs (which are cool, but didn't get adopted as fast as DVDs), many consumers aren't quite sure what they're getting because the category and pricing schemes aren't able to overcome the idea of just going to the store and buying a DVD. Aha! Tangible.
Because of subscriptions and other ways of extracting reoccurring sources of revenue from the consumer, it's the business model that drives product adoption just as much as marketing.
Re:90% marketing (Score:5, Interesting)
For next gen (bluRay/holodisk) to take of there will either have to be a huge improvement in quality, drop in cost, or some other compelling reason to switch.
(how may music albums are sold on dvd?)
2:... Satalite radio, never heard of it, sounds crap, I have an Ipod with shite loads of music, I have internet radio piss off I'm not buying that crap.
3: Ipod £200, a bit expensive, I'm going to wait for the price to come down. Maybe I'll get a pda.
Top tip if you want to make a few bucks. Ipod x ICE (in car entertainment).
1 micro pc case (£40)
1 mothor board (£40)
1 100 gb hdd drive (£50)
1 amp or two (£80)
1 display, 1 wifi usb card. (unknown)
~£300, or about the same price as a crap incar multi change unit with mp3 support.
If it runs linux then...
You should be able to link up usb or bluetooth to you phone for hands free.
Link to you ipod, portable mp3 player, usb keyring etc..
Link to the house, or another car, or the internet with WiFi.
Add a usb CD drive if you like, inface add just about any usb device you can think of.
It's a killer because:
It's the same price as current munti changer systems.,
It's interoperable (try mixing and matching current ICE components).
Current systems in the market are crap.
Mp3 playes are just taking off.
Do it well, and no-one will have a standard radio or cd/tape player in the car in 5 years time.
Re:90% marketing (Score:2)
Drop in Cost? Whoa! Hold on there, sparky. If you drop the cost from the approximately $20 we pay for a DVD movie today, that will hurt the profit margins. That would mean all of the incredibly important Hollywood people, like: publicists, lawyers, agents, hair & makeup artists, personal trainers, executive producers, marketers, graphic desig
Re:90% marketing (Score:2)
Re:90% marketing (Score:2)
You can get them, £500, propriotry.
Why would you want it where the old radio goes, why not hide it somewhere where it's not going to get stolen.
You can get PDA's with Compac Flash and SD, a sony microdrive's go upto well over 1GB, and SD cards go upto 1GB.
That's enough for a portable device, about 200 tra
Re:90% marketing (Score:2)
Thank god.
That's right, (Score:2)
That's what happened to This little piece of equipment. [audreyhacking.com]
Re:90% marketing (Score:2)
Re:90% marketing (Score:2)
That, and the fact that they make me jump higher and run faster, hell, $100 is a bargain!
Re:90% marketing (Score:4, Insightful)
The post implies that culture of the market depends on the "hype" of the product. And I agree with this. Yes, I assume there are tennis shoes that go for $100 or so. Currently, I am wearing a pair of sandles that I found at a music festival after I lost my flipflops in the mud
My point being that culture determines the maket, this culture can be influenced by marketing via ads and whatnot, but take another example -- cell phones.
Here in the US, we can't figure out why there are phones with cameras, text messaging, etc. Most everyone I know has a cell phone. I can't think of any of them that have a camera phone. The only time I've seen or heard of anyone get text messages here is when a friends phone got spambombed with porn text messages until her phone's memory was full.
I saw on TV where Avril Lavine was doing a tour in Japan, and _everyone_ had a cellphone with a camera in it and they were all taking pictures of the girl with their phones up in the air as far as their arm would reach. I understand that in Japan text messages are used for things other than porn spambombs.
Marketing has to preach to the choir. I don't think that marketing has convinced that senor citizens here in the US "need" a 4x4 suv to drive 25mph to church and to visit their grandkids, I think its more culture.
Re:90% marketing (Score:3, Insightful)
Patents (Score:4, Insightful)
'Which patents will prevent certain technology (and as a result promote others) and become part of everyday life in the future.
Re:Patents (Score:2)
Patents aren't nearly as bad as slashdotters make them out to be. Even software patents.
Why? They expire. Relatively quickly. As in, within my lifetime.
Bezos can keep his one-click patent, milk it for all it's worth, because he's only got a couple years left.
In 7 years anyone can make an iPod, complete with it's little jog wheel. And so on, and so on.
Patent law isn't nearly as fucked up as copyright law. It's fucked up, sure, but it's really not that bad.
Re:Patents (Score:2)
>I don't want to wait a lifetimefor new technology.
What has new technology got to do with existing patents? Surely new technology means inventing new things rather than using things that have already been invented?
In 7 years anyone can make an iPod
I don't want to wait 7 years for innovation in the handheld mp3 player (iPod dominated) market..
Since when does 'innovation' in a market involve using other people's patented technology? I
There is nothing wrong with capitalism (Score:2)
That's not a fault of capitalism, that's a fault of government regulation/tariff.
Then it will be built some more in Malaysia - low labour cost. Next it will go to a distribution centre somewhere in Europe (where is not so important). Then on to a wholesaler in Ireland again...I am actually leaving out many loops here Im sure - its even worse!
I'd like to know how this is a bad thing. Chip is designed
Simple! (Score:1, Funny)
Step 2. ???
Step 3. Profit!!!
Step 2 (Score:2)
the routine (Score:5, Insightful)
Here's the referenced chart...
hype chart [bbc.co.uk]
Here's the yahoo 5 year IPO chart...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=YHOO&t=5y&l=on&z=
Same pathway...
The is the pathway of ANYTHING new being introduced into the world. First, it's sexy and popular, then it's over done, and then it either levels off or dies.
Re:the routine (Score:2)
DOWN, Down, down...
Chart of SCOX [yahoo.com]...
Re:the routine (Score:5, Insightful)
ok, maybe I think about candy too much.
Re:the routine (Score:3, Interesting)
I second that. I don't have an online reference, but if any of you can get your hands on a textbook "Clinical Pharmacology" by DR Lawrence, you will find a similar graph plotting the popularity of any new drug that is introduced into clinical practice.
First, it is the panacea for every disease under the sun; then it becomes evil incarnate for all the side effects and adverse effects it causes. Finally, it finds its place in the spectrum of known drugs, with its own benefits and risks.
Before something is hyped... (Score:5, Insightful)
Before all those people leap into the "why does this work and why this not" they should start at the bottom: research and development. With those two magic words, we are likely to see a whole lot of hypes more. Without it, we can just wait on the next company that goes bankrupt because noone would buy it's proven, but old, products...
Re:Before something is hyped... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Before something is hyped... (Score:2)
As for keeping every song you could ever want uncompressed on one hard drive? Maybe if I could afford a 1TB hard drive...
Think bigger... (Score:2)
Future or Furniture? (Score:2)
I've tried to interpret that in different contexts but nothing works out. part of the Furniture? I think their editors were alseep.
Re:Future or Furniture? (Score:4, Funny)
Sometimes we call the grad students (and some undergrads) who hang around WAY too long the "furniture" because they last so long and they're such an integral part of everything. Could be like that.
...or not
Re:Future or Furniture? (Score:3, Funny)
Consider yourself part of the furniture! (Score:2, Offtopic)
Consider yourself- one of the familhy.
We've taken to you- so strong.
It's clear
we're
going to get along.
Consider yourself- well in
Consider yourslef- part of the furniture.
There isn't a lot- to spare.
Who cares?
What
ever we've got we share!
./~ </OliverTwist>
Re:Future or Furniture? (Score:5, Informative)
So, having a sofa isn't something special, and nor is being on the Internet. Owning an iPod is, thus the iPod is not part of the furniture.
Re:Future or Furniture? (Score:2, Informative)
Furniture Definition [reference.com]
Yes, people actually furnish themselves and their homes with an internet connection.
Once one understands what furniture actually means it is also easier to understand the metphorical phrase "become part of the furniture."
KFG
The next big thing? (Score:3, Funny)
I guess if I came up with some technobabble name for it and claimed that NASA had something to do with it's construction it'd sell big.
Re:The next big thing? (Score:2)
That's the old way of making a piece of crap cool. Now you just paint it white and put a half eaten apple on it. Then the prentitious will flock to it like bees on honey... I'm just bitter 'cause I can't afford an iBook.
Get teens to accept it (Score:1, Insightful)
2. Roll around in your new found wealth
*sigh*
I know pop stars (Score:2)
Some of them have realy bad taste, others just copy the fashion. There all molded and sold of the shelf like everything else.
don't forget (Score:2)
Re:Get teens to accept it (Score:2)
In a nutshell (Score:4, Insightful)
2. Apply it to a maturing retail area (see iTunes and the music market).
3. Packaging and usability is king if you want to get the mass audience (and no - slashdot readers are NOT the mass audience!)
4. Profit!
(5. Putting the little apple logo on it usually helps jump a few steps in the process...)
Get your free iPod! [freeipods.com][it really works! - my buddy got his after I signed up, I have just 2 more referrals to go...]
Easy but expensive to shortcut (Score:5, Interesting)
Of course, that's no guarantee of success. It's quite possible that the product will fail because people don't "get it". In that case you have to watch what your focus groups do. Do they sort of bumble with the thing, with no idea what they're doing? Would they actually keep using it if they weren't forced to? Do they make use of most of the features, or do they ignore them? Most of this can be found by quiet observation of the user with the device. Don't answer questions. Just let them figure it out.
If there's little that can be done about the complexity, then you're going to need a good advertising campaign. Manuals will help, but they only come *after* the purchase. It's much better to explain why they need the device before purchase so that they'll jump right in with the designed goals in mind.
It's called ... (Score:2)
It's Called Eating your own dog food [netlingo.com]
There are many other links here [google.com]
It's not just technology (Score:5, Insightful)
From the article:
"Something new would happen, there would be tremendous excitement, followed by disillusionment."
Sounds like the entire course of human history to me.
Re:It's not just technology (Score:2)
Now what I would pay Gartner for is what the
Re:It's not just technology (Score:2)
Sort of like the wheel. I'm sure it was a very exciting thing at the time, but we really didn't get around to getting full use of it until the last five hundred years or so, and it's really took off with the advent of the internal combustion engine.
That's what I have to say to the people who criticize research on quantum computing and space elevators and such. Sure, its not going to turn a profit by next q
this will succeed ! (Score:2, Funny)
scissors,a GPS,LCD screen,mp3 player,cellphone and a pda...
did i miss something ?
Re:this will succeed ! (Score:3, Funny)
scissors,a GPS,LCD screen,mp3 player,cellphone and a pda...
did i miss something ?''
Why, Ogg Vorbis support, of course.
Yeah but does it run linux (Score:2)
Re:Yeah but does it run linux (Score:2)
Re:this will succeed ! (Score:2)
Yeah! Does it run Linux?
Caw! (Score:2, Insightful)
Why do you think the iPod is the most popular and well-known HD MP3 player around? Big advertising budget and good
Re:Caw! (Score:1)
Re:Caw! (Score:2)
His iRiver had trouble accessing the harddrive a few months after that, and tech support kept him on hold for over 30min multiple times (he assumed it wouldn't be that long so he called before having to go to class). Eventually it started working again, and then tech support started answering calls (funny how that works, isn't it?)
Simply put...I'd never get an iRiver...
but I am curious, did anyone else have problems with an iRiver, either the hard
Endorsement (Score:1)
Shiny parts... (Score:3, Insightful)
I think there's some truth to that. If Gadget A catches your eye and is aesthetically pleasing it will probably sell better than an uglier but more functional Gadget B.
Apple tends to blend form and functionality rather well.
So what's after the "Plateau of Productivity"? (Score:4, Insightful)
So while it's an interesting article I don't think they've accounted for everything or, more likely, they don't want to talk about the next step which is probably a slow (or fast) death for technology which is ursurped by the next new thing. Also while the idea seems to be this "Hype Cycle" can help predict the path of a technology the article itself throws cold water on that idea. They readily admit the iPod threw off all their predictions for the Mp3 player market (now called simple digital music players). The hype cycle seems more of a hindsight tool than a forward looking predictor.
Re:So what's after the "Plateau of Productivity"? (Score:2)
Blame the Press (Score:5, Interesting)
It goes something like this: some new technology starts to look like the next big thing. Journalists hype it to the moon since it gives them something "truly revolutionary" to talk about. As a result, expectations get all blown out of proportion.
Then when the technology inevitably fails to live up to the hype within some ridiculously short timeframe, they have yet another big story to promote: "Is XYZ a hopeless failure?". Two stories for the price of one!
The moral is not to believe what you read in the papers. Sure, there are plenty of revolutionary technologies emerging, but these things take much, much longer than the press would have us believe.
Re:Blame the Press (Score:2)
This thing has started in the 70's.
Colleges were on it from the 80's.
Early 90's it was still fairly private, until..
They opened it up to public use.
Now, mail travels through it, voice and pictures travel through it..
No, all our information travels through it.
It is the Internet. That is revolutionary.
Re:Blame the Press (Score:2)
Re:Blame the Press (Score:2)
I'd made another comment something along these lines: The world is too keyed to the quarterly report. Projects that go for two or three years without turning a profit or producing research material have a sad tendancy to get the axe.
Projects like the supercollider, space elevators, and quantum computing, space travel (especially manned), and so forth are heavily cri
Re: The technology hype cycle (Score:5, Insightful)
1. A graph with different tehnologies/device listed against the time it took for them to "mature", with funny names given to each trough and crest of popularity, does not make an insightful report.
2. There has been no mention of whose definiton of "product maturity" has been used. It is a term widely open for interpretation
3. It is hilarious to compare the effectiveness, acceptability and market penetration of such varied products as DVD players and PDAs, and so on. There are host of factors that come into play, least of which is the sense of an inane need within the target customer segment.
I bet that article concludes something. Though I certainly wish it was something more focused than a wannabe "we will have more power in our hands in the future"!
What _really_ matters? (Score:5, Funny)
No, seriously, new technology is frequently propelled forward by its capacity for smut. Show of hands: How many
(And yes I realized how it's ironic to ask for a show of hands WRT porn. At least I didn't ask you to show both hands.)
Re:What _really_ matters? (Score:2, Funny)
Re:What _really_ matters? (Score:2)
And a lot of people have concluded that if the porn people (always looking for new markets) can't figure out HOW to make use of it, or can't figure out WHAT to use it for, then it's not going to work as a technology.
How many of us remember grainy, orange, animations from the mid-late 80's? You know, the ones that relied on EGA graphics or whatever. These were the precursors to actually doing FMV on a computer, and only e
Re:What _really_ matters? (Score:2)
When will this cliche end? Porn is *not* the reason for all technology, it just happens that VCRs and computers enabled people to view it in the privacy of their own homes instead of wearing trenchcoats to seedy theatres with sticky floors.
Where's cell phones in that cycle? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Where's cell phones in that cycle? (Score:3, Interesting)
I wouldn't say it's quite as easy as having an iPod, but Nokia [nokiausa.com] has multiple mp3 playing phone models. And the original N-Gage plays games too.
Lol, you are joking or an idiot or ... (Score:4, Interesting)
The iPod got about 40gb of music and about half an hour playtime. The phones got 32mb and about 2-3 hours playtime.
iPod market will never be replaced by the phone market. Same reason the real hifi component market is not replaced by the boom-box market. iPod buyers will always want the extra quality that a dedicated product can give them. A gadget that tries to do everything will always end up doing all of them less.
Two different markets.
Re:Lol, you are joking or an idiot or ... (Score:2)
I disagree: phone manufacturers have been able to embed a camera (low quality ok), but do you really think that they won't be able to embed instead mini-hard drives?
As for the quality, which quality, the interface? the sound quality? Both should be ok (with headphone for the sound of course).
The only problem I can foresee is the battery: people don't like to have the battery totally discharged on phones as it means they can not be joined anymore
Okay it is a bet. Two years from now. (Score:2)
Microsoft (Score:2, Interesting)
What I think is most unfortunate is when a company hypes a product, with features people actually want, delays it, then finally releases it, but not as good as promised. Microsoft has done this in the past, but it looks like they may be taking the time to get Longhorn up to snuff.
It will be interesting to see if Half-Life 2 lives up to the hype.
--
Complete an offer, get a free Orkut invite, Gmail invite [freeipods.com]
You have not been reading /. recently have you? (Score:3, Interesting)
But hey it works. Companies delayed adopting OS/2 because MS promised that 95 was going to be so much better. People are delaying switching to Linux/BSD/OSX because MS promises longhorn will be so much better.
This is hardly unknown in business. Harly davidson made bikes so bad they didn't even work out of the factor
Re:You have not been reading /. recently have you? (Score:2)
No, we want air travel to be safe enough for us to justify at the price we pay. Safety has a certain value to people, as does the experience (customer service, wait times, etc). As long as flying has more value to people than the money it costs to do so, people will continue to fly.
Few things in life are _safe_ - it's just a question of how much risk you are willing to take, and how much you are willing to pay to reduce that risk.
Re:You have not been reading /. recently have you? (Score:2)
I can't seem to find any data to back that up...what I did find was this "From 1982 to 1998, a period of 17 years, there were a total of 8,109,000,000 passenger enplanements. During that same time period, there were 2,211 fatalities, and 348 serious injuries. This amounts to a 0.00003% chance of being seriously injured or killed in a commercial aviation accident. This [freeadvice.com]
Segway? (Score:5, Insightful)
It seems like the Segway fits here. Vast hype, vast expectations, little impact two and a half years after introduction.
Re:Segway? (Score:2)
And things come and go too.
Apple introduced the 1st pda in 1993 or somewhere around there, and noone bought them.
Then in the couple of years before and after 2000, PDAs were very desireable devices.
Now they are coming out of fashion.
I didn't write this, but it's appropriate (Score:3, Funny)
Apple Product Life Cycle [misterbg.org]
The *TRUE* technology hype cycle (Score:5, Funny)
-2 months: You read about it in the newspaper 3 months later. The article is done by a guy whose speciality is discussing nothing but gadgets.
0 months: The technology appears in stores in limited quantities, geeks foam at the mouth trying to acquire it. The girlfriends of geeks shake their head wondering why they would need it.
2 weeks: The geeks who can't find it in stores buy it on ebay for 3x the store cost. No girlfriends to shake their head at these guys.
1 year: Regular people begin buying the product.
1.5 years: Mainstream newspapers report on the popularity of the product.
2 years: Your girlfriend buys the product.
2.5 years: Your mother finally hears about the product.
3 years: Families begin buying the product. The product is finally mainstream.
5 years: The product begins appearing between the shaving razors and chocolate bars at the check-out counter.
7 years: The product/technology finally peters out and your grandmother goes around telling people that she knew it was a fad from the start (1 year ago, from her perspective).
8 years: Slashdot reports on the product.
word of mouth (Score:5, Funny)
1992: "$10 for a CD? What a deal!"
1993: "$3,000 for a 486? What a deal!"
1994: "Check out this webpage."
1995: "I'll be out, call my cell."
1996: "I bought it all online."
1997: "The number's in my PalmPilot. What? No, it's better than the Newton."
1998: "MP3s on napster.com? No problem, I've got a cablemodem now."
1999: "Y2K? Yeah, I've got my bunker stocked."
2000: "Yeah, I finally got a DVD player."
2001: "Check out my wireless network. Yeah, all the way to the patio."
2002: "It costs more but this LCD monitor is the shiznite!"
2003: (unemployed)
2004: "Would you like fries with that?"
Re:word of mouth (Score:2)
1993: "$3,000 for a 486? What a deal!"
Boy, those were the days. my $3K got me:
-a 486DX66 with DOS (6.0?) for Doom + Windows 3.1
-a 15" 1024x768 noname monitor (that actually lasted a long time)
-8MB RAM for ACAD
-2MB video card
-2X CD-ROM
-40MB hard disk
-TOL Soundblaster card
Re:word of mouth (Score:2)
I'm still doing useless stuff with computers [Maxwell Smart="on"] and loving it.
Californians Beware! (Score:2, Interesting)
The article uses the word "slave" when referring to something dealing with technology. Attempting to read the article in California may result in you breaking county law in your locality. http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=03/11/25/001425 7&tid=133&tid=103 [slashdot.org]
The 'Lead In' (Score:2, Insightful)
1. Announce a technology "idea", that someone else pioneered, that's nowhere near complete in terms of development.
2. Develop it for months, maybe years, producing a lull in the market.
3. Finally release it, but in Beta.
4. Finally complete the beta, making the thing gold while it should still be nothing more than a beta.
5. Start "round 2" of producing a product that should still be in beta, and call it version 2.
6. Announce version
Spelling... (Score:2, Funny)
Must Be An Article About Microsoft (Score:2)
"Longhorn will be the best yet!"
"Longhorn will be out in 2003."
"We won't be doing WinFS over the network."
"We won't be doing WinFS".
"Longhorn will be out in 2006."
"We won't be doing Avalon" (next month).
"Longhorn will be out in 2008."
"We won't be doing Longhorn."
Re:iPod Hype Cycle (Score:5, Interesting)
Not so. They existed, certainly, but well-entrenched? Not really. And only one had anything like enough storage to hold more than a single album (the Nomad, which I seem to remember was first). And even then, the ones that had capacity had nowhere near the correct form factor.
I know all of this, because I'd been trying to justify getting an MP3 player for month, but couldn't bring myself to do it because I knew that whilst technologically pretty, they were functionaly useless. Then the iPod came out and I knew immediately I wanted one. Could easily fit in a pocket, and could hold a ton of music? Yep - the first of the players to be truley functional. I only had a Windows PC at the time and there was no way for them to talk. I bought an original 5Gig iPod the same day XPlay hit beta.
Oh, and I've since gone to OS X too, returning to Apple after a gap of about seven years. It's up for debate how much of the iPod's quality acted as a trojan horse there.
Cheers,
Ian
Re:Apple knows... (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Apple knows... (Score:2)
I still like Penny Arcade's joke about the iPod:
"The iPod doesn't skip!"
"Neither does this. It's cusioned by $380 cash!"
I love mine, but the relative who bought it for me last Christmas spent WAY too much.