Olympic Medal Prediction Model 357
bettiwettiwoo writes "Slate reports that PricewaterhouseCooper claims to have devised a model predicting the final medal tally for nations competing in the Olympic Games. GDP is of particular importance in bringing home the bacon, closely followed by population size and and past performance. Other factors can also affect the outcome: hosting the games usually gives a medal boost. With the possible exception of China, the titan nations of the games (US, Russia, China and Germany) are predicted to see a successive drop in their total medal tally in the future (and compared to the Sydney Games, the future starts now). So if you were wondering why the Iraqi soccer team seems on its way to the quarter finals, why Greece takes gold in synchronized diving, or why Michael Phelps has to eat Ian Thorpe's bubbles, don't worry: it's only evolution, baby, and it's all perfectly predictable!"
Vital step missing (Score:2, Insightful)
Thats the primary explaination for the success of the Eastern Europeans in the 60s and 70s, and US Athletics since then.
Relevence ??? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Olympics (Score:1, Insightful)
They neglect the important question (Score:1, Insightful)
It's part of the United States, so why? Because it's not a state? No. Washington, DC isn't a state and you don't see it with its own team. This just doesn't make any sense.
Re:Olympics (Score:3, Insightful)
A gold medal may require skill, but it needs a whole lot more besides (unfortunately).
Evolution - or just better training (Score:4, Insightful)
Evolution can only be used in this context to explain the improvement of training principles.
Biological evolution would just predict athletes would just get more 'athletier'.
Iraqi Soccer (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Vital step missing (Score:2, Insightful)
Doping by atheletes is a world wide problem and it takes place in every country. The US is in no way more guilty of it than any other western European country, that's for sure.
And this gets +5 Insightful. Just shows how you post anything anti-US on slashdot gets you +5.
Re:Lies... (Score:5, Insightful)
WTF?
Thorpey held the WR, had 9 of the fastest times ever, had not been nbeaten in the distance for 4 years.... add to that Phelps had never gone close to any of Thorpe's times.
Phelps lowered his PB and got third - which, when you look at his performances over the distance is in fact a bloody good result personally for him.
The fact is, it would have been a pretty major upset for Thorpe to lose to Phelps. It was always goignt o be a race between Hoogie and Thorpe, NOT Thorpe and Phelps - it was only moron commentators who were talkign up the clash that begged to differ.
Past performances always said Thorpe verses Hoogie and guess what - that's exactly how it turned out.
Admittedly, the race did live up to hype as an event. It was a damn good one.
Re:Poverty? (Score:1, Insightful)
The point is backed up in the next line !
The whole quote:
If you're on the poverty line, you don't have a lot of time to invest in sports," said John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PwC. Poor countries like Brazil can excel in soccer, the one truly global sport. But in nations where the horse is still the primary mode of transportation, not many people have the time or leisure to compete in dressage.
Re:Lies... (Score:2, Insightful)
Obviously these statistical models aren't trying to pick winners of individual events, but for this race I think the result was pretty much what people expected, despite what Sports Illustrated or Time Magazine might have put on their covers while trying to sell magazines.
Re:Iraqi Soccer (Score:3, Insightful)
how much is a room in your sig going for?
Comment removed (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Lies... (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:Evolution - or just better training (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Ian Thorpe... (Score:5, Insightful)
You North Americans are such bad losers. There are any number of posts here claiming that "other countries" are doing well because they are trained by North American coaches, or because train in the USA.
Now you claim that perhaps the didn't win the swimming because Aussies live near the ocean. Jeeze...
Can't you just accept that sometimes althletes from other countries might be better than the USA ones?
About Quality, not Quantity (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Olympics (Score:1, Insightful)
US beating China?
no way, not now that they had to leave all dopers at home.
BTW, did you notice that as soon as WADA got more active and treated to take more doping tests the "top" american athletes started to disappear??
and not to mention that guy Armstrong, who is "home with his family"....
Re:Lies... (Score:1, Insightful)
It is not simply reinforcing common sense, it is accurately quantifying the contribution of those factors. That is a awesome feat.
Re:Olympics (Score:3, Insightful)
If ... (Score:2, Insightful)
Synchronized diving is silly, but I fail to see how it is more so than 'normal' diving.
Re:Olympics (Score:3, Insightful)
No, they're not. If they were, tactical assault, "ultimate fighting", and compettive woodworking would be olympic sports.
The Olympics are, and always have beeen, about "performance." And not in general, but performance in a specific test.
200 free (Score:4, Insightful)
You're absolutely right - the commentators needed to talk up Phelps' attempt for 7 golds - Particularly here in America - which obviously is now over.
That said, Phelps did make it a decent race, as his time was closer to Thorpe's than it was to the 4th place finisher. As you mention, he did set a personal best in his attempt, and there's no shame in that. He also had a real chance at silver (vdH was closer to Phelps than Thorpe).
But ultimately, this was a one-man race from the beginning. And there are some of us Americans whose memories include Sydney and what Thorpe did there. He's not an all around swimmer, but he kills in the free.
pet peeve of mine (Score:5, Insightful)
I mean, would it KILL them to print a standard coefficient table or equation?
Disclaimer: Yes, I teach econometrics.