Dan Bricklin on Software That Lasts 200 Years 359
Lansdowne writes "Dan Bricklin, author of VisiCalc, has written a great new essay identifying a need for software that needs to last for decades or even centuries without replacement. Neither prepackaged nor custom-written software is fully able to meet the need, and he identifies how attributes of open source might help to produce long-lasting 'Societal Infrastructure Software'."
Work on the hardware first. (Score:4, Insightful)
~D
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:2, Funny)
Please explain ! [superpam.com]
CC.
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:5, Informative)
He says that the system should stay fundamentaly the same and components can be replaced and upgraded, not having everything replaced completely every five years.
He is not just talking about one specific program that doesn't change, but rather open standards and techniques that mean data that is stored today, will be accessible in 200 years time.
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:4, Insightful)
Software of today can run on a variety of different hardware, but there is a degree of similarity between the different types of hardware that probably won't exist between todays computers and those available a hundred years from today, much less two.
He is not just talking about one specific program that doesn't change, but rather open standards and techniques that mean data that is stored today, will be accessible in 200 years time.
That, on the other hand, I can agree with. Anyone storing information in a format that isn't publically documented really ought to consider whether they'll still need it in 30 years time, and start migrating it to an open format now if they will. However, there are very few formats that are completely undocumented. I believe the most commonly used might be Microsoft Access databases. I'm not sure what documentation exists on the formats of various other commercial database systems; I believe Oracle's formats are well documented (?). What about MSSQL? Informix?
Most accounts packages have documentation available on their database formats I believe. Certainly Sage and Pegasus provide such documentation. What about Great Plains, etc.?
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:5, Interesting)
When I was a young programmer, I was shown a water quality analysis program used by an English water authority that some colleagues of mine at ICL were particularly proud of. Not that they'd written it. It was running on an ICL 2900 series mainframe running VME. But the software wasn't written for a 2900 series, so it actually ran on ICL 1900 emulator, running MOPS. But the software didn't run on a 1900 series, so the emulated 1900 was running an emulator of an older English Electric computer whose designation I've forgotten. But the software wasn't written for the English Electric computer, so the English Electric emulator running on the the 1900 emulator running on the 2900 was running an emulator of the world's first commercial computer, LEO, for which the software was actually written.
When I saw this program in 1985 it was already thirty years old; it was still being used because it was still useful. If it is still in use it will be fifty years old, and (as 2900s are now very rare) is probably running under a further layer of emulation on an x86.
Any Turing equivalent machine can, in principle, emulate any other Turing equivalent machine. Of course, true Turing equivalence requires unlimited memory, so in practical terms it's only possible to emulate machines which have less memory than the machine that's doing the emulating. But it's reasonable to suppose that the machines of 100 years in the future will have at least as much horsepower and at least as much memory as the machines of today. So they will be able to emulate the machines of today.
A program written today may not be able to fully exploit the user interface features of a machine of two hundred years hence, any more than a BBC emulator [cloud9.co.uk] can exploit the full graphics resolution of a modern workstation. But what a modern workstation can do is a superset of what the BBC Micro could do, so it can be emulated without compromise.
In other words, hardware compatibility is a non-issue in making software which will last and which will remain useful.
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:3, Interesting)
So, for original 1977 Apple II ROMs, copyright currently expires in 2072 in the U.S.
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:3, Interesting)
and a huge part of this is hardware support and, interestingly enough, storage bandwidth. You see, you have to migrate data from obsolete hardware/media to newer hardware/media, but in the near future the amount of data stored on obsolete hardware/media may become too large to transfer to newer hardware/media before it dies/decays/whatever, simply because the throughput of the transfer mechanism is too low.
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:3, Interesting)
The problem with software is, as long as there is proprietory formats (or if you don't have the source codes), you can forget about what he calls "societal infrastructure software". If the government is thinking about being able to retrieve its data 50 years from now, better enforce that an open data format be used in your application, right now, and with clean and precise documentation. That means, no MS Wo
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:3, Insightful)
Well, for large scale data apps, it is available. Heck, I've taken courses in both Informix and Oracle internal structures - in memory and o
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:4, Insightful)
Hardware manufacturers will always have a powerful incentive to support the abstraction layer, because by doing so, they'll instantly pick up a huge set of killer apps for their new CPUs. Standardized abstraction layers therefore provide an economically efficient way to divide the labor of porting software to new platforms.
Are you thinking that in order to have software that's useful in the long term, it must run continuously on exactly the same piece of hardware? Think about Google (a very useful thing in our society). They must be bringing newer, faster computers on-line all the time. But if they're not total boneheads, they don't need to rewrite all their code to do this.
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:3, Insightful)
I'm using software that orignally ran on an 8086, then a 286, the a 486, then two or three generations of Pentiums. The whole point is that hardware dies, software doesn't. Not to mention the bunch of Unix-derived software that I run as DOS or Linux apps, essentially unchanged for almost 30 years, though the hardware on my desk is more powerful than the whole server room at the university I learnt it on, and
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:3, Interesting)
Oh, nonsense. Consider the well-known "Hello, world." program in the K&R C "bible". It's been around 30 years or so, and the hardware they were working on now only exists in a few museums. But that program is still in routine use on millions off computers.
Note also that K&R included not only the code for the program, but the commands to compile and execute it. They correctly pointed out that this
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:3, Insightful)
Bzzzzzzt! I call Bullshit...
The C programming language has been with us 30 years. Most of the non machine-specific coding from 30 years ago would work today with almost no modification on today's Ghz PCs.
I develop large, powerful applications in PHP that will work well on a Linux, Solaris, Irix, Windows, or AIX system, with virtually no porting whatsoever. Furthermore, the software itself is the executable
Re:Work on the hardware first. (Score:2, Insightful)
Side benefit? Yes.
200 years??? (Score:2, Funny)
Must have had one hell of a beta test phase.
Re:200 years??? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:200 years??? (Score:2)
Re:200 years??? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:200 years of speech recognition software??? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:200 years??? (Score:5, Funny)
Open Source (Score:5, Funny)
Maybe it's needed, but who will develop it? (Score:5, Insightful)
this article seems pretty flawed.
We need to start thinking about software in a way more like how we think about building bridges, dams, and sewers.
The fundamental difference being bridges cost more to alter than software does. And the capabilities of hardware allows more freedom in software, to which there is no correlation in bridges.
hmmm, just my 2 euro-cents.
Re:Maybe it's needed, but who will develop it? (Score:5, Insightful)
The point is that, given the fact that there is a vast amount of information in computer files, you must be aware that if you can't retreive that information in the future, it will be lost.
You are right, most of the software gets updated. But it is the interface that understands the format the thing that must last for much more time than a couple of software-updates-cycles
This is exactly another reason to consider OS standards instead of closed-source formats, as MS in 100 years (if it does still exist) will have forgotten how
Re:Maybe it's needed, but who will develop it? (Score:3, Insightful)
Maybe before, but the document format hasn't changed since Office 2000.
You can send me a document written in Word 2003 and I can happily open it in Word 2000.
Re:Maybe it's needed, but who will develop it? (Score:4, Informative)
And changing the settings to saving in RTF format by default (enabling Word versions from Word 6.0 through 2003, as well as basically all other word processors, to read the documents) isn't all that hard. Not even in a corporate setting.
Microsofts encourages upgrading of Office installations through a lot of questionable means, but the Word document format isn't one of them.
Re:Maybe it's needed, but who will develop it? (Score:5, Informative)
What it doesn't open properly? Geez that's A shocker.
Now you can save an office XP doc in office 97 format, and office 97 doc's can be opened in office XP but office XP doesn't open in Office 97.
MS does this because when one business upgrades, it forces the partners to upgrade as well. Why because most people have a hard time understanding what the different formats are.
Re:Maybe it's needed, but who will develop it? (Score:3, Insightful)
And changing the settings to saving in RTF format by default (enabling Word versions from Word 6.0 through 2003, as well as basically all other word processors, to read the documents) isn't all that hard. Not even in a corporate setting.
The word format is heavily platform dependent. If you embed objects into word documents, or use scripting, it's pretty much a guarantee it will not wor
Re:Maybe it's needed, but who will develop it? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Maybe it's needed, but who will develop it? (Score:3, Informative)
Hmm? I still install Office97 on any brand new computer I get and it works just fine. Why would I need to upgrade it? All the functionality I need to do reports is there and it's 7 year old software.
Re:Maybe it's needed, but who will develop it? (Score:3, Interesting)
Actually, it comes from two reasons. First of all, we never have enough time to deliver all of the features we would like. Software release schedules are driven by sales cycles, so when the cycle rolls ar
Start using simpler hardware (Score:4, Interesting)
Take todays computer: motherboard with one big black chip, CPU on it, network card also one chip on it, videocard is too impossible to figure out how it works. Due to the integrated design, you can't fix it if it is broken. And in five years you won't be able to replace it one-on-one.
On older hardware (8 bitters), you were able to repair it yourself because you knew how it worked and you know you were capable of replacing a failing chip. Even if you didn't have exactly the same chip, you can use one of a newer family which did the same but would be capable of switching much much faster.
Re:Start using simpler hardware (Score:2)
No (Score:5, Insightful)
I disagree. It's got nothing to do with the software but the data.
If the data format is clearly documentented, then it doesn't matter whether the application that generated it is open or closed.
True, you could argue that since the code is open the data format is also documented, but personally I'd find it easier if it was written in a properly structured document.
Otherwise you'd have to resort to learning and then plouging through an application written in some 200 year old programming language (by someone who possibly hacked it up with a hangover at the time) to try and understand what they were doing and why.
Hypothetical question... (Score:4, Funny)
Now excuse me while I get back to writing my "Hello World" application that will last two centuries
Re:Hypothetical question... (Score:2, Funny)
Unfortunately, in 200 years the language will have evolved, and the words and phrases we use today will have completely different meanings. People of the future will understand "Hello World" to mean "All Your Base Are Belong To Us", and believing your program to be a dire threat, they will fire up their time machine and send back Arnold Schwarzenegger's great-great-great-great-great-great-grandson to el
Re:Hypothetical question... (Score:3, Insightful)
Similarly, unless some catastrophic loss of historical information should occur, someone 200 years from now would still be able to fathom the concept of a command-line or even a desktop-metaphor GUI. They will of course think it is c
2 letters (Score:5, Funny)
Re:2 letters (Score:3, Insightful)
S
It's a tool... (Score:2, Insightful)
tools vs. infrastructure (Score:3, Interesting)
infrastructure, because of
Re:It's a tool... (Score:4, Insightful)
I have an automotive body hammer that is nearly identical to a 1500s war hammer, although the upgrade to a fiberglass handle is a nice touch for reducing shock. The basic design goes back some thousands of years with little more than some minor updates in materials.
My 100 year old desk holds up my computer just fine. It is as technologically advanced as what I can get new at Office Max, except I expect it can last another few hundered years due to the quality of its construction.
I'm wearing woven fabric clothing, a technology that reaches back at least 10,000 years. There have been a number of attempts to replace this technology over the past 40 years or so. They've all proven inferior except for certain special applications. Hell, even indigo dye for work clothes has proven to be a durable technology for thousands of years that you can still purchase in nearly any clothing store and the "jeans" that are the most common example of the type are about 400 years old (Jacob Davis added rivets to the existing design. He didn't invent the jeans themselves).
I've been watching a new office building go up in town. It's post and beam, about as old a house building technology as you can get, although the building is considered "modern."
I also have a couple of fires that burn continuously in my home. It proves rather useful, although the technology is a bit long in the tooth.
I fully expect that ASCII will be just as viable a way to represent the Latinate alphabet 200 years from now as it was a few decades ago, and the Latinate alphabet is another example of a multithousand year old technology.
Innovation for innovation's sake often "progresses" to the rear.
Build it right and build it good. Don't be afraid to change it when there's damned fine reason to on solid theoretical and practical grounds, but otherwise leave it the hell alone if it works.
That isn't being a Luddite. That's being an engineer.
KFG
Already there? (Score:3, Interesting)
It seems that all those old mainframes running programs from the 60's weren't in such bad shape after all.
This is an over-simplification of course -- people did have to do some work to make sure there weren't any "Y2K" problems.
Re:Already there? (Score:2)
Re:Already there? (Score:4, Funny)
You mean it's safe to come out of my bunker? Thank God! I'm sick of sustaining myself on spam, twinkies and tang.
Not Possible (Score:5, Insightful)
Language standards don't even last 200 years, how do we expect something as new as software standards to be more uniform than language standards? Language has been around for thousands of years and we still can't agree on that.
Re:Not Possible (Score:3, Insightful)
How do you know? Lisp has been around for a while, and it's not dead, yet. Some Lispers are working on a language called Arc [paulgraham.com], which they hope will last a hundred years. On another front, perhaps Parrot or .NET will provide a stable base that will allow languages to evolve, while remaining compatible.
That said, I don't think it's necessary for a long-lived softw
Language standards (Score:3, Informative)
Lisp is about 50.
think back 200 years (Score:3, Interesting)
Going back 200 years, we only began the proper industrialization and everything was pretty much running on steam.
I think it's flawed to try to design software that lasts for decades or centuries.
The technology is constantly evolving, and as the hardware changes, so does the software.
If the hardware developement continues as it does, in 2200 we, or the people then, might be working with hardware running at terahertz speeds with 4096 bit architechtures.
Probably that's an underestimatement, since the evolving curves tend to be exponential.
I don't really think they would still need the software someone wrote for windows 95 200 years ago.
Standards, not Software (Score:5, Insightful)
If it is stability and reliable infrastructure that is desired, it is standards that must remain constant and software that must evolve to make the standards work with new technology.
Re:Standards, not Software (Score:5, Funny)
now history depending on electricity (Score:2, Insightful)
The point that the author makes here is really that without electricity we will lose great parts of recent history.
Re:now history depending on electricity (Score:5, Interesting)
The point that the author makes here is really that without electricity we will lose great parts of recent history.
When I was at secondary school, in Britain during the 1980s, we participated in a UK-wide project to create a modern version of the "Domesday Book", the 11th-century record of people and property.
The project we worked on was recorded onto a (state-of-the-art) laserdisc so it would "last through the generations".
Last year I read an article saying that dedicated enthusiasts were desperately trying to assemble a working laserdisc system, in order to archive all the data collected just 20 years earlier.
Moral: it's not just electricity we need to worry about - media and the equipment necessary to access specific media is vital, too.
Re:now history depending on electricity (Score:2)
Software != Civil Engineering (Score:3, Insightful)
Data Structures would be a better analogy, which Standards Bodies have done a really good job declaring. So in 200 years time you'll still be able to read the DVD data format (assuming the media is still good), even though the software that plays it will likely be different.
Software is more like mechanical engineering, where things do break and improvements keep being found. You wouldn't for example use a 1960's car engine in a car today, even though the basic principle is the same. No ones asks why they didn't get it right 40 years ago and aren't still using the same design.
Unfortunately, what would often be considered an early prototype in engineering, is often released as v1.0 -- the cause of which is a long post all unto itself.
Re:Software != Civil Engineering (Score:2)
Lasting 200 years (Score:3, Interesting)
How many democracies are older than 200 years? How many governmental structures have survived 200 years? Bridges may last that long, but 200 years ago, Ireland was a very different place. America was a very different place, England was a very different place (see Ireland and America for why
200 years ago, the Americans loved the french for helping them in the civil war, the english hated the americans as barbarians, the Irish as "Paddies" and the Irish hated the english. The English hated the French
Back to the point - Software, or those parts of it that do qualify as societal infrastructure will have to change, simply to keep up with the rate of societal change and anything that lasts for 200 years is a very fundamental tool indeed.
See also (Score:4, Informative)
I read their book in college and, though it is a bit pie-in-the-sky, I thought it raised some interesting ideas. One of their projects was to build a clock that could last a thousand years. When I moved to London [colingregorypalmer.net] one of the first things I did was go to see the thousand-year clock in the National Science Museum. There it was, it all it's broken-non-time-telling glory. About a month ago I checked up on it again. Status: still not fixed : \
Paul Graham said it best. (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Paul Graham said it best. (Score:2)
It's clear that he was approaching the question with the LISP-user's mindset: simpler is better. There is such a thing as too simple, in my opinion.
long-term.. short-term (Score:3, Funny)
Too young (Score:2, Insightful)
Software is such a young industry that best practices, standards etc. have yet to be settled upon and thus will be hard to implement. Most engineering practices have come about after centuries of development, I somehow feel software development will have to mature for a while before we can see similar licences and standards bodies.
Legacy COBOL (Score:3, Interesting)
Ask the programmers at Duke Nukem Forever (Score:5, Funny)
Not possible (Score:2, Interesting)
The nature of technology is to evolve over time. Only the most basic tools we have haven't changed significantly over time: things like the knife, the hammer, etc. Even the screwdriver has seen significant development in the 20th century (Torx screws, for instance).
Only those things for which the underlying rules don't change can remain constant over time. Software i
Trust me, it's not a problem! (Score:2, Insightful)
The problem is more social then tecnical. (Score:5, Insightful)
So to make a program this customizable you need to make it a programming language with everything to you need to add and delete change and alter over time. Now even programming languages think Fortran 30 years ago it was the most popular language out there. And now it is tossed aside for the newer languages, even with fortran compilers for linux, most people will rewrite their fortran code to a more modern language then just port it. To take advantage of new features such as GUI, Internet Connectivity, Color Printing, Web Access. More thing that seemed useless or impossible 30 years ago, are now becoming important. Sure it is possible to make a program run for 200 years. But is is possible to make it useful for 200 year. And beside all this extra design time to make a program that can run for 200 years will cost a lot of money and time to do. Are the users of the applications are willing to pay $1,000,000 for a java program that number crunches their numbers. Or will they pay $50,000 for a program that will last them 10 years, and will be a lot less bloated and simpler to use.
Paper is a bad analogy (Score:4, Interesting)
You may note that the author says "you can read 100-year-old newspapers *on* *microfiche*". This point practically jumps up and down to be noticed - even in the world of printing, paper copies are not seen as suitable for long-term storage, due to difficulties of preservation and physical bulk. So these paper copies are transferred to some other medium for long-term storage. This medium relies on readers existing - if all companies making microfiche readers went out of business (which probably won't be too many years ahead) then the microfiches will be unreadable. And the microfiches themselves are fragile - a scratch in the wrong place will make it difficult to read, and it's on plastic which will degrade over time.
Why should digital be any different? If you want ultra-long-term storage of digital data, use punch holes in gold sheets. Otherwise you use a storage medium which gives you a reasonable storage size and reasonable data security.
On reading the data back, suppose microfiche readers went obsolete and you couldn't buy them. The method of reading the data is still known and recorded, and can be reconstructed by someone needing to get the data back. Similarly, the most common bulk storage methods today are the CD-R and the DVD+/-R (tape backups are practically obsolete). Now the standard for data storage on CD and DVD is, well, *standard*. So if in 200 years time someone wants to read one back, they could build a CD player from first principles.
Grab.
Re:Paper is a bad analogy (Score:3, Informative)
Neither tape nor the organic dyes on CD-Rs are nearly as long lasting as acid-free paper. I've read 200 year old books, but reading a 200 year old tape or a 200 year old CD-R would require *much* more effort
Where is the cost of change ? (Score:3, Interesting)
- Move the software to a new box (but similar) since the old one is worn out or not fast enough or
... In practice this is not too difficult since you can either just copy the binaries or buy new ones orThis I would not call a real change and is not too expensive.
- Move the software to a new (or much changed [the current] version of the same one) operating system.
This is expensive as there is a lot of recoding that must be done and then work configuring it on the new platform.
Note that the above is only valid if the software being copied does not really change it's functionality as the customer has not changed the requirement spec.One of the nice things about Unix (Linux/...) is that you can still run very old software on new boxes with at most minimal changes - I still use code that I first wrote some 20 years ago.
There has been much assumption in this discussion that the whole system (hardware, OS, software) has to live unchanged for many years; I think that is missing the point as the true cost of software change is only big in case (2) above.
Note that some software does need to be regularily changed, eg payroll - because the governments change the rules every year or two.
Ink and Paper (Score:4, Insightful)
paper books (Score:3, Informative)
User defined requirements??? (Score:2, Insightful)
I've yet to meet a client commissioning a project who knew well how his own business operated, still less was able to understand how any knowledge he did have might be usefully turned into a specification. One of the reasons some software projects have a short life is that the intended users fundamentally misunderstood how their business worked, or that its way of working was likely to change.
The 4-function calculator (Score:2)
Software that lasts forever is the simplest kind.
200 years? I'll raise you 2,200 ... (Score:4, Interesting)
The relevance to software is captured with an example: Is Linux still Linux? How much remains of the kernel originally published by Linus? Would would you say that Linux has been around for X years (pick X to suit)?
Most people would agree that it's still Linux. What Linux, the broom, and Theseus' ship have in common is that they could be modified to meet the demands of time, while retaining their identity.
I've always thought that maintainability is the highest virtue software can strive for, above other quality-oriented goals like being bug-free, or performant. If its buggy, but maintainable, it can be fixed; if its slow, but maintainable, we can make it faster. I think it could also be argued that software, like Theseus' ship, needs to be maintainable to last 200 years; but the version 200 years from now may not resemble the original in the slightest.
Just my 2c
Baz
Wait... (Score:2)
What is the reason Donald E. Knuth wrote TeX? (Score:5, Insightful)
- TeX user manual
- TeX commented source code
- Metafont user manual
- Metafont commented source code
- The Metafont programms to generate the computer modern fonts
What is that good for?If you, say in 500 years, get a copy of these 5 volumes (and if they are printed on good paper, there is good chance that these survive). You just need some kind of computing device and the skillset to implement some easy pascal like programming language. Then you type in the programms and fonts from this book and voila, you have working a TeX system!
Of course you need to write a .dvi driver for whatever output device you want to need and have at that time.
If you now find some .tex source of one of Knuth's books, be it in print or some crude hyperflux memory cube, you are then able to reproduce that book in the quality Knuth intended it to have!
Thus TeX is explicitly developed to transfer the typographic quality of Knuth's books into the future, without depending that lots of software vendors establish lots of data format (e.g. Word 2325 to Wort 2326) converters!
Regards,
Marc
Document Format (Score:4, Interesting)
When i design projects, i tend to think more about keeping the data clean, simple and robust over time, rather than the ease which certian applications can reproduce it.
For example, when i designed KML, the idea was that it was meant to be a robust format that could be defined outside the context of any word-processor, and ultimately aimed at HTML, TeX, etc. At the moment, it is Regina REXX's job to render my markup. Nothing stops this from becoming Perl's or CEnvi's job! It's just a matter of writing a new parsing engine.
Because it is not something like HTML or TeX or RTF, i have considerable control over the format, and i can map several internal styles onto the same output, eg like {emphasis} vs {bold} in html. But the thing can be to the structure of the document.
It is more data standard, rather than program standard that is important. The latter is also important, since we don't want to either run dusty decks or old programs.
But what can you expect from an upgrades-driven market?
Long Now Foundation (Score:3, Informative)
The Long Now Foundation: 10,000 Year Clock and Library Long Now is the brainchild of Stewart Brand [everything2.com].
-kgj
Once again, Vernor Vinge is the visionary (Score:3, Interesting)
Vinge leaves a clue in that passage... (Score:3, Interesting)
If you calculate the offset between the starting date of their oldest calendar and the epoch date of their software, it seems that their software is based on something written in the '70s, or at least that's when its calendar started.
Things that make you go hmmm...
This is a Great Idea, and... (Score:4, Interesting)
The way that homes were built in the early part of the 20th century, those homes could be expected to still last up to 100+ years. These days, the cheap 'lick em and stick em' jobs that people pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for are certain to start falling apart in 10-25 years. I know this because I used to work on some of them. The materials are not meant to last. Many of the homes develop probles with the plumbing, roof, even the electrical in some cases. A lot of these homes can't stand up to tornadoes as well as the old houses could. There was a neighborhood in a city south of me where all the bran new houses were torn apart by a tornado. These houses were built in the late 1980s and 1990s. Within a few blocks, there were a few old farm houses that were unscathed. My point is that houses these days are made of crap, more expensive and are not built to last. They are essentially disposable after one generation grows up in them (while having to fix problems).
This is all evidence of the disposable, recurring payment culture of the U.S. today. I exclude other countries even though many of them have the same problem, but to a lesser extent. Those other countries are fr more likely to try and build a long-lasting, open source infrastructure. When I was a kid in the 70s, recurring fees were rare other than utilities and mortgage or car payments. Today, you can get nearly anything for a recurring fee. Although all the fees themselves are small, they total to whopping bills if a person needs or wants all those goods and services. Whatever happened to the day when you could buy something and it was yours. 100%. No strings attached. No recurring fees. Just yours. Sure there are a few things, but keep in mind that recurring fee or not, they are not built to last. Durability is anathema to profit in the new American way. The idea of having long-lasting, open source/free software is going to have a lot of opponents in the American software business soley because there is money to be made.
OT - recurring costs? (Score:3)
"As long as I can make the minimum payment, it doesn't matter what my credit card balance is."
This was foolish youth talking, and 'buy now, pay later' immediate gratification marketing that led me for years.
I had a wise aunt and uncle who advised me that I could spend 10% more than I earned, or 10% less. The first way I'd sweat payments for the rest of my life, the second way I'd always have money in my pocket. T
Re:This is a Great Idea, and... (Score:3, Interesting)
Sure it is. The problem is that you're just looking at consumer goods that are expected to be cheap, so there's no incentive to make them long-lasting. Quality costs, and most people don't need the added expense if it's equivalent to the cost of a replacement unit in a few years. (and just how can anyone be *forced* into buying a warranty?)
We have bridges that have been up fo
I Know of Code That Will Last 200 Years (Score:3, Funny)
COBOL, FORTRAN and SQL (Score:4, Interesting)
Another problem is the advent of the GUI. Give a user, or even a programmer, a text-oriented application today and be prepared for much wailing and gnashing of teeth. As someone who started writing programs on mainframes, it doesn't bother me, but I've seen users look at me like I'm some kind of Martian when I give them a command-line program to solve a problem, even though it is supplied with step-by-step documentation on how to use it.
Where are we today? I don't believe that there has been much progress made in recent years. You can write portable programs in COBOL, FORTRAN and Ada. ISO Pascal and ANSI BASIC seem to be near extinction. Portable programs are theoretically possible in C, but the pitfalls and temptations are many. I'm not a database programmer, but I would hope that there is a portable subset of SQL that would support the portable use of RDBMS. Why should I know or care that the system is using Oracle or SQL Server?
Re:COBOL, FORTRAN and SQL (Score:3, Informative)
A call for true "Software Engineering" (Score:3, Interesting)
Civil engineers also run into this problem. For instance, take any large city whose highway system was built more than 50 years ago (NYC and Boston come to mind immediately.) No one ever dreamed that everyone would have their own car and stop using the trains/buses/ferries to commute to work. Therefore, overcapacity was never seen as a problem, and the rush hours just get longer every year as everyone tries to stagger their commutes. And since the roads are right next to buildings, in-place upgrades are very rare.
I think that once the whole IT labor market shakes itself out, software engineering will become another branch of traditional engineering. Just like power plants, dams, airports, etc., we're now dependent on computers, and it's time to put some standards into place. Software needs to be built such that it's portable, easily understood by a similarly-trained engineer, and conducive to improvements. In other words, it needs to be able to outlive the coder.
Data Standards is the key. (Score:3, Insightful)
I firmly believe that without this we will lose a significant part of our history. Current history is known because of durable "storage" like paper and fossiles, stone tablets or murals. The materials are all degrading but last longer then something digital.
If we keep on trusting on technology we use right now we would be very lucky if anyone in the near future would be capable of finding anything significant which would be representable of our time. All our information is being recorded in digital format. This includes important things like presidential speeches, signed documents etc.
This society is more and more dependent on electronic information. Alot of information isn't available in printing anymore let alone in a true durable format. If for some reason there will be some major catastrophy any survivors' offspring in the future will know nothing about this age and it's mistakes and would not learn a thing about it.
We had the opportunity to study history because of the durability of it's information. Our information, however, doesn't even last a lifetime.
Bricklin Is Clueless (Score:3, Funny)
HUMANS won't last through this century! How does he expect software to do so?
From a programmer. (Score:3, Insightful)
Being a computer programmer, I wouldn't call myself a 'Software Engineer' due to the appalling state of writing software in its current state. There has been for quite some time this in-bred mentality of Versions, that nothing is ever finished, mostly driven by commercial greed - despite the huge advances in computer power, our OS'es and their applications are still struggling to keep up with an Amiga, for chrissake.
Moreover, it can have lethal consequences; for example, radiation treatment, or airplane control. Deaths ensued. "Sorry that your college outing ended in all their deaths, we were running 1.1.3 of the aileron system."
Sure, even mechanical engineers get it wrong, but their main onus is to make something that will work, not, as in the software case, 'get it out now, fix it later'.
So, if someone says they are a 'Software Engineer', ask them, what is it they do that merits the 'Engineer' tag - would they build a bridge that lasts? Nope.
Right idea, wrong time. (Score:5, Insightful)
Not because they can't be built to last, but because they quickly become obsolete.
If Moore's law continues to hold for 40 years, computers will be over a million times more powerful than they are now, the cheapest drive you could buy would hold more than a petabyte, and we'll be saying things like "I remember when a thousand bucks for a terabyte of ram seemed like a good deal, and now I can't even buy a ram stick that small".
Once the breakneck pace of expansion stops (or at least slows to a reasonable rate) then we should look at making software that lasts.
Video compression technology is big business today, but it's probably going to seem like a silly idea in the future.
We don't need buggy whips that last 200 years.
-- less is better.
The Clock of the Long Now (Score:4, Informative)
One might argue that the clock incorporates firmware, in the sense that there will be relatively complex algorithms to maintain accuracy by comparing different timing signals, and simpler algorithms to decide when to move the century hand, or cuckoo the millennium. It's not a stored-program system though, so it doesn't meet the criteria that the Babbage engines meet. Nevertheless, this is a good example of hardware designed realistically to operate continuously for 10 millennia. For this project Hillis invented a mechanical serial-bit-adder, a mechanical digital logic element, which evidently lacks the "wearing problem" of a standard clock mechanism. The clock knows about leap years and such.
The website has images of the prototypes and the design, but I'm on dialup so I didn't look at them. The Principles Page [longnow.org] discusses some of the problems to be overcome. For example, power source - right now Hillis is tending toward a temperature-based power source - and maintaining accuracy, which may be based on a phase locked loop using a mechanical oscillator and solar alignment. There are ways to support the foundation, such as buying Brand's Book, or Eno's tunes
IMHO he might want to use three or four other checks as well. An extension of phase locking can work well with multiple nodes in a network, e.g., the multiple nodes in the human heart rhythm controller. Such networks rapidly converge to a common cycle, and this would provide additional reliability. The NTP network time algorithm is based on multiple sources of the same type, but analogous in concept. Just for fun, it'd be great if the clock also included a display of the 64-bit Unix time, in binary!
This Wired article [wired.com] was written by Danny Hillis about his original idea. The Long Now Website [longnow.org] has other interesting links about long term stuff. Hillis has some interesting friends, like Brian Eno [enoshop.co.uk] who named "The Clock of the Long Now", and Stewart Brand [edge.org]. Other links: Intro to Brand talk [edge.org], The actual talk [edge.org]. Buy the book [gbn.org], or the Eno CD "January 07003" [enoshop.co.uk] to support the foundation.
What lasts two centuries? (Score:5, Insightful)
Not really true.
Those historical buildings? They've been gutted and rebuilt from the inside out at least once during the past 50 years for the installation central air conditioning and elevators for the handicapped. And they're the exception to the rule. Few commercial buildings go more than 15 years without major renovation and few residential buildings make it more than 30.
Roads? Sure, US Route 1 does still travel approximately the same route but its repaved frequently, expanded and changed frequently, and its been supplanted in its original purpose as the major east-coast north-south route by Interstate 95. And even Route 1 has existed for less than a century. Before automobiles at the begining of the 20th century, there was no need for anything like it. Before automobiles, who could conceive of a multilane asphalt highway that needed to sustain speeds over 500 miles per day? How could yesteryear's engineers possibly plan for it?
The US constitution, the foundation of our law, has seen two major overhauls in the past two centuries: first due to the civil war and again because of the great depression. Even where parts of the text remain the same, their meanings have been drastically altered by the courts. Free speech has become freedom of expression. The right to bear arms somehow doesn't exist at all inside Washington DC except for police. The states have gone from being the primary seats of governance to being almost entirely subsidiary to the federal government. We're living under an almost totally different government than what saw the dawn of the 19th century.
Even the Catholic Church publishes a new catechism each year, a book which defines the religion. You'd think during two millennia they'd figure it out once and for all, yet it continues to evolve and change.
Few things last, either in their original purpose or their original design. They're continuously rebuilt, redesigned and reinvented... Even things like roads, buildings and governments for which our design experience goes back thousands of years.
Our software experience goes back 40 years, if you can call what we did 40 years ago software by any current definition. Why should we build it to last longer than than the roads and buildings, and indeed longer than software in any form has existed?
I'm sorry, but I'm not smart enough to successfully plan ahead two centuries and neither are you.
Fix the data problem first (Score:4, Insightful)
This is just one example of how proprietary formats are bad for storing important data, long term. This problem was noted years ago when it was discovered that VA tapes, tucked away in underground facilities back in the 60's, could no longer be read because the software that created them is gone.
An ideal data scheme would include information which describes the data being stored along with the data itself. An example is XML. This concept needs to be pushed.
It is more likely that we can solve the problem of proprietary data storage schemes long before we can implement 200 year software.
Survival? (Score:2, Funny)
So, in order to survive I guess you have to make shitty sw and do lots of marketing to sell your products anyway.
Hmm, sounds familiar in some way...
Re:Defies the functioning of the economy (Score:2)
This is not a threat to the current economic model. There'll still be lots of data that doesn't require a 200-year lifespan, so commercial software can still be used.
Re:It simply doesn't work.. (Score:2)
If they'd done it the "Bricklin way" those problems wouldn't have existed.
Understanding the problem? (Score:3, Funny)
That's not to say that the change wasn't needed, as it was, because of other problems, which we started discovering during the course of the project, but then again, they never should've gone to the software t