Myths about Internet growth 384
An anonymous reader writes "An article in The Economist outlines WorldCom's role in starting the myth that Internet traffic doubles every 100 days. This helped inflate the telecoms bubble."
You knew the job was dangerous when you took it, Fred. -- Superchicken
Growth follows the market (Score:5, Insightful)
Like the stock market, the bandwidth market has its up times and its down times. When you invest in the stock market, you invest for the long-term trend which historically has been up. In the same way, the need for bandwidth will continue to grow over the long term as we continue to find new and cool things to do with it.
Re:Hmm.. (Score:2, Insightful)
How much of that is due to companies adopting spam as an advertising medium?
Exponential growth (Score:5, Insightful)
-- Bartlett, as quoted in my 1st year physics textbook
This raises the other question . . . (Score:5, Insightful)
There's a re-evaluation of business tactics and laws going on. Maybe its time to re-evaluate supposed technological "truths" as well.
And maybe we techies can use this as yet another example of the hype over reality in technology, since WorldCom is in the use. Next time someone non-technical tosses out something obviously ridiculous, bring THIS up and ask them where they got their idea.
Re:Not to troll, but.. (Score:4, Insightful)
If the PRESIDENT says something, people assume he MUST be right.
If says "our industry is growing FAST FAST FAST", people will believe it. This appears to be how bubbles form (Enron, Worlcom, etc). People will believe statistics if they seem somewhat reasonable and come from what appears to be a reputable source.
Besides, this doubling every 100 days figure seemed like a great concept to latch onto (gee, humanity is becoming more connected...thats great!)
So I guess the answer IMO, is that people ARE just getting caught up in excitement.
Re:Not to troll, but.. (Score:5, Insightful)
That said, the reason that most people swallow them whole is because people believe what they hear from figures deemed "in authority", such as politicians, CEOs, doctors, and the mainstream media. All, interestingly enough, of these sources have egos the size of Texas and consciences the size of Guam. Why do people trust authority figures, given that there is every rational and historical reason to distrust them instead? Probably has an evolutionary basis (in that cohesive groups had better odds of survival, and adherence to authority in a crisis increased the cohesiveness of the group). In fact, the military deliberately teaches officers and non-coms the tone and style of speach needed to get instant obedience.
Moral: The media are stupid and lazy (Score:5, Insightful)
Every interest group pushing an agenda (yes, even profit-seeking corporations seeking to sell more bandwith) seems to come up with some dubious statistic like this. The media gobble up press releases, disguised oftentimes as "studies" which are bought and paid for by the interest group, and they spit them out on in the newspapers and other media outlets, sometimes virtually unchanged.
I am not surprised by the Economist's story -- I am surprised that it took so long for it to make it into print. I wonder how many times the Economist itself published that same "fact" before discovering that the emporer had no clothes.
Re:Not to troll, but.. (Score:1, Insightful)
Doesn't surprise me (Score:2, Insightful)
Same reason... (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Unbelievable (really?) (Score:3, Insightful)
Yeah. What was that Moore guy thinking in 1965
when he forecasted chip density doubling every
18 months. That obviously couldn't last more
than a couple of years, could it?
Some predictions seem to work better than others.
Worldcom Blame... (Score:4, Insightful)
Rival telecoms companies believed the myth and cited UUNET's figures, even if their own traffic figures disagreed.
I find it disturbing that these rival telecom companies aren't making their own decisions. "Tech: Sir, we are only using 3% of our bandwidth and 45% of the nations traffic traverse our networks. CEO: Damnit, can't you hear? We need more bandwidth!! MOORRRREEE!!!!"
yeah but (Score:3, Insightful)
there are some basic facts we have to deal with when doing this
1) laying 1 fibre vs. laying 32 fibres costs about the same
2) you need to lay tons of fibres regardless (because the US is sparced out compared to, say, Tokyo / Seoul)
3) you need capacity *today*. not 32-fibre worth of capacity, maybe 1 or 2 fibre worth.
4) you probabbly need the 32-fibre worth of capacity in the future -- okay -- not the *near* future, but you know for a fact it will be utilized later
so basically, you need to invest in this infrastructure regardless -- because let's face it, you need them damn fibre runs even for today's economy. the choice boils down to
1) you spend 85 billion for 2 fibres today, and another 80 3 years later when you need to double the capacity
2) you spend 100 billion for 32 fibres today, and be home free for 12 years or so.
okay -- simplified math, bs statistics. but pretty much the same point.
if you were the CEO / CTO, what's gonna be your plan? i know i will bank on the 100 billion.
so they took a bet and ran out of $$ before it turned profitable. but it's was a lost gamble -- not a bad decision.
i like to point out that the interstate highway system is pretty much the same except the US got enough cash to cover it while it slowly became... profitable (on a entire economy scale)
Re:Not to troll, but.. (Score:5, Insightful)
NAPOLEON: What shall we do with this soldier, Guiseppe? Everything he says is wrong.
GUISEPPE: Make him a general, Excellency, and then everything he says will be right.
-- G. B. Shaw, "The Man of Destiny"
This is what happens... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:This raises the other question . . . (Score:5, Insightful)
It's depressing to watch a reporter claim someone else is being irresponsible for starting a bad rumor and forgive everyone else for their complete failure to verify the truth of what turned out to be an urban legend.
Re:Moral: The media are stupid and lazy (Score:3, Insightful)
I wholeheartedly agree--up to a point. There are a small number of top-notch journalists, who really do objective well-rounded reporting. Unfortunately, it really is a small number of journalists. Also, unfortunately, they tend to report on lesser-viewed channels, such as some radio, public TV, and some magazines.
The rest of the journalism industry is an overpopulated mass of careless wannabees who jump on anything even remotely reportable. Just look at local TV news, local newspapers, most of the national TV networks, most national newspapers, and, recently, most Internet news sites. All they do is propogate rumors, who-cares stories about kidnapped rich kids, slanderous stories about accused criminals, and tonight's prime-time lineup. Truly pathetic, given that they are the most watched and have the greatest influence on public opinion.
Re:Growth follows the market (Score:3, Insightful)
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but...
Re:Price of Bandwidth (Score:4, Insightful)
I think what happened a few years ago was that the price was pushed below the sustainable level by VCs indirectly financing your bandwidth. For a couple of years I had a deal that actually cost me nothing whatsoever for my internet connection; actually it saved me 10% of my telephone line rental as well.
What's happened now is the VCs have gone away and the price has bounced back to where it really should have been in the first place and the companies supplying bandwidth are turning a profit again. For companies profit is like breathing- you can hold your breath for only so long and then you die; the companies are breathing again; but looks like some held their breath for too long.
However the cost per bit is going down all the time, and we should gradually see the price that we pay come down with it. (Should being the key part of that sentence ;-)
Multimedia! (Score:2, Insightful)