Agree or Disagree: We are in another tech bubble.
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We have an advertising bubble... (Score:5, Insightful)
Right now, we may not have a tech bubble in general like the late 1990s, but we do have the bubble of advertising dollars will pay for everything. However, as time goes on, companies dependent on ad revenue have to keep becoming more intrusive, either changing their TOS/EULA to allow for more parties to look at data, forcing interstitial or other annoying ads, redirecting every click on a link through a maze of redirects, as well as browser fingerprinting.
There will come a time where a company demands users install software on their machines and send every single key tap, mouse click, and any other item they can get access to as individualized ad data. When this time comes (or perhaps earlier when users start revolting), the bubble will pop quite painfully.
Re:We have an advertising bubble... (Score:3, Insightful)
Another way to state this question is: When are people going to start paying for the software that they use? Google and Facebook have made a lot of money off of ads, but that's because nobody was willing to pay to use a search engine or a social networking web site. The IBM/Microsoft method of selling is still going strong if you look at software as a service to businesses. Microsoft isn't making as much money now, but it is still making a lot of money. Amazon is the converse of IBM/Microsoft. Instead of selling software to businesses, they make money by using their own software to find better ways to sell items to customers. They have started selling their own services to businesses based on what works for them. People are willing to pay for valuable services like Netflix and Hulu+. However, many companies fail to get these three things correct: great selection, reasonable prices and good customer service. As we work out pricing for these micro-services, then we will see the ads go away. That will be the great disruption to Google and Facebook.
Bigger concern (Score:3, Insightful)
A far larger bubble and one with further reaching consequences is the education bubble. That is the big one to watch because it is ripe for a popping.
Tech bubble? (Score:4, Insightful)
Umm, could someone who voted agreeingly to this explain to us who wanted to vote "WTF??" (but couldn't, because the poll lacked options!) were such a notion comes from? What are the signs you see? All I can see is semi-depression that is artificially kept from sliding into a complete crash by our very own super Mario & his minions.
Re:We have an advertising bubble... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Tech bubble? (Score:4, Insightful)
People spending billions buying tech companies that do not generate a profit.
**tech** bubble (Score:5, Insightful)
You're missing the 'tech' part of it...I see what you mean though.
First, there is no company that has "billions to waste"...
**that mindset gave us the tech bubble in the first place**
The "tech bubble" of the 90s was a convergence of the natural progression of technology (which had evolved to give us a worldwide computer network that did dynamicly displayed images, text, and audio and was well on its way to full motion video)....and a global evolution of government monetary policy which allowed for financial mechanisms to enable such high valuations of companies.
or you might say, the tech bubble was like silicon valley & wall street blowing each other in an alley behind a techno club
hype or no hype, technology is progressing at breakneck speed...to know if we are in a "bubble", examine what the *function* and *profit model* of the companies receiving the largest investments...if they do not have an identifiable product/service/profit model other than selling personal data (like Google Nest) or it's a repackaging of a basic internet function with alot of hype/money connections (Brit Morin of "www.brit.co").
1. selling personal data
2. repackaged tech w/ money connections
those are two consistent things present in all "bubble" companies
but first and foremost, look at **how they make a profit**
Recession != bubble (Score:5, Insightful)
What about the current situation is bubble like? The wages of engineers? Certainly not. The fact that companies are being purchased? That has been the silicon valley model for decades; avoid the R&D costs for your large company by doing hardly any R&D and instead purchase whatever tech you think you need from the near-infinite number of startups clamoring for a payoff.
Are housing prices in a bubble? If so, that isn't exactly tech, and I don't think anyone could point to anything like this except maybe in San Francisco and Austin. Even so, the reason prices in those areas are high is due more to foreign investment than it is to geeks.
If any economic categorizations other than "normal" are appropriate than they are "depression" or "recession" rather than "bubble". I haven't perceived any significant change since 2008. Companies remain stingy. Unwilling to train. Unwilling to pay for the talent they need. Commonly using outsourced labor (which blows up in their face almost without fail). We work in an industry with extensive collusion among the major employers not to compete for employees (yes, this is still happening) and where no one is willing to form a union.
By what metric are we experiencing a bubble? Do we mean a negative bubble?
Bubble vs recession depends on who "we" are (Score:4, Insightful)
If any economic categorizations other than "normal" are appropriate than they are "depression" or "recession" rather than "bubble". I haven't perceived any significant change since 2008. Companies remain stingy. Unwilling to train. Unwilling to pay for the talent they need. Commonly using outsourced labor (which blows up in their face almost without fail). We work in an industry with extensive collusion among the major employers not to compete for employees (yes, this is still happening) and where no one is willing to form a union.
By what metric are we experiencing a bubble? Do we mean a negative bubble?
Technically we can't be in a recession because that is a macro economic term and the economy is growing. However, we can and are in situation where much of the economy is dragging. That is perfectly compatible with a tech bubble. Here in Silicon Valley (or, more properly the Bay Area since the focus has shifted toward San Francisco), there a many many startups raising large amounts amounts of money and chasing big ticket buyouts or IPO's with questionable business plans. Very frothy. However, it is only party time in the space of Internet and mobile services.
Network infrastructure? No. Telecom? No. Semiconductors? Are you serious? The only "hardware" startups that get funded are those that apply the absolute bare minimum of hardware and wrap a service around it. Outside the bubble, a few companies are doing well (like Apple) but, as you have observed, they haven't passed much down to the rank and file. I don't think it is as terrible as 2008 but it looks a lot more like 2008 than 1998.
Re:We have an advertising bubble... (Score:5, Insightful)
I think it means paying billions for a fucking messenger app is over. Google is infrastructure now, not speculative circle jerking.
Only a few big names (Score:4, Insightful)
Yes, there are crazy amounts being paid for certain lucky tech companies. SnapChat turning down $3 billion, for example. Sorry, the company simply isn't worth more than half of the S&P 500. So in the sense that some social media-related companies are being bought by the giants for huge dollar amounts, there is a bubble.
But the bubble isn't extending to the bottom of the food chain. In the 90's, anybody who could say "Java" could get six figures, and any guy with a hair-brained idea and a few programmers, could get VC money from rich guys who did random things to choose where to sink their money. It's not like that now. These days, you have to actually be able to write software, to get a good job, and you have to have a viable business, to get VC dollars.
Re:We have an advertising bubble... (Score:4, Insightful)
It's already happening. It's called "Cloud computing".