Week 1 Football Picks

Journal idiotnot's Journal: Week 1 Football Picks 2

Journal by idiotnot on Tuesday September 02, 2003 @12:45PM

Thursday, Sept. 4
New York Jets at Washington, 9 p.m.

This game, unfortunately, I think will be the high point of the Redskins' season. The Jets just have too many holes (many left by players now on the Redskins), and they're not going to win many games with a 40 year-old Vinny Testaverde at the helm. There are still questions about how healthy Curtis Martin is -- I'm not sold on LaMont Jordan. Skins 35, Jets 17.

Sunday, Sept. 7
New England at Buffalo, 1 p.m.

Buffalo's good offsense, against New England's improved defense. New England released Lawyer Milloy today (WTF?!), so who knows how much that'll hurt. They should have done that earlier. Still, should be a close game, and I don't think it'll be as high scoring as one might expect. Buffalo 23, New England 16.

Jacksonville at Carolina, 1 p.m.

Jacksonville always plays well before they start getting hurt. They're like the Saints or the Dolphins, only they start to fade at the end of October, instead of the end of November. Carolina's offense should be better than last year, but they won't be able to come back if they get behind. Jacksonville 28, Carolina 20.

Denver at Cincinnati, 1 p.m.

I don't believe in Jake Plummer yet. I don't buy Mike Shanahan's "offensive guru" title. I think Denver's defense is overrated. I think the Bengals are better, but they're still the Bengals. If you like seeing passes intercepted, this is the game to watch. Denver 17, Cincinnati 14.

Indianapolis at Cleveland, 1 p.m.

Peyton Manning versus his former backup (Kelly Holcomb), and quarterbacks coach (Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians). People are down on the Browns, and I'm not quite sure why. I think that it all comes down to the fact that their linebacking corps is all second-year guys. Andra
Davis was a very good special teams player last year, and I saw him make some good plays when he did get into games. Ben Taylor should have been starting earlier. All that said, Manning and company will be anxious to put up a show, after getting whipped by the Jets in the playoffs last year. Colts 45, Browns 42 in a shootout.

Arizona at Detroit, 1 p.m.

This might be the worst game on the schedule this week, and some poor saps in Phoenix and Detroit will have it on TV. I like Jeff Blake and Emmitt Smith, and think they'll be alot better on offense than they were last year. I just don't know if the defense will be able to do anything. Detroit is without James Stewart, which means the Cards will be able to sit in a zone all day, not having to worry about the run. Cards 22, Lions 7.

Minnesota at Green Bay, 1 p.m.

Minnesota is the most overrated team in the NFL. Onterrio Smith is a problem waiting to happen, and this team will miss Michael Bennett more than anybody is letting on. Daunte Culpepper turns the ball over too much (both picks and fumbles), and Brett Favre will make him pay for that. Packers 31, Vikings 24.

San Diego at Kansas City, 1 p.m.

San Diego can win this game if, and only if, they can keep Kansas City's offense on the sidelines. If Kansas City gets ahead, San Diego doesn't have the passing game to get back into it, even against a suspect Kansas City defense. Chiefs 26, Chargers 23.

Houston at Miami, 1 p.m.

Miami's offense is overrated. Houston's is underrated. Still, there won't be many points in this game, which will feature two good defenses. Miami's best quarterback is number three on the depth chart -- look for Sage Rosenfels to get some playing time this season, and not return to the bench. Dolphins 16, Texans 12.

St. Louis at New York Giants, 1 p.m.

Two good offenses, against two defenses that had off years. The Giants have a better secondary, which is where this game will be decided. Marshall Faulk and Kurt Warner will show that they're both back, however. Giants 41, Rams 35.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m.

The Ravens are starting Kyle Boller. Pittsburgh's defense will eat him for lunch. Look for alot of Tommy Maddox in this game, because people are going to beat the Ravens by throwing against them, then getting turnovers. Steelers 26, Ravens 10.

Atlanta at Dallas, 4:15 p.m.

The story of this game is that the starters at QB are Doug Johnson and Quincy Carter. Whoever does better on the ground wins this game. Falcons 19, Cowboys 17.

Chicago at San Francisco, 4:15 p.m.

Slash wasn't the answer in Pittsburgh, he's not the answer in Chicago. San Francisco is the second most-overrated team in the NFL, behind the Vikings. At least Dennis Erikson is trying to do something different with the offense -- but that's going to expose Jeff Garcia's flaws. 49ers 23, Bears 6.

New Orleans at Seattle, 4:15 p.m.

The Saints always start hot, and Seattle's defense, while it should be better, still hasn't "gelled." Matt Hasselbeck still doesn't impress me -- his "breakthrough" games at the end of last season came against some pretty lousy defenses. He looked positively sorry when he was throwing against Fred Smoot and Champ Bailey. Saints 36, Blue Men Group 22.

Oakland at Tennessee, 8:30 p.m.

The Raiders are old -- it'll start showing one of these days. The Titans are in salary-cap hell, but they're relatively healthy right now. This will be a much better game now, than it would be if it was played in the middle of November. Raiders 24, Titans 21.

Monday, Sept. 8
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia, 9 p.m.

A rematch of the NFC Championship game from last year. Andy Reid has a bad case of Marty Schottenheimer/Buck Sholwalter syndrome -- good enough to get close, not good enough to play for the title. The only way to beat the Bucs is to pound them on the ground, and the Eagles' weakest position is at RB. The result in this game will be the same as it was in January. Bucs 23, Eagles 13.

Bitch away. :-)

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