zogger's Journal: China switching markets on schedule

This is an indication of the moves I have been saying that china will do as the economy changes around the world. Now that they have extracted the bulk of the necessary manufacturing knowledge they need from the west, they no longer absolutely "need" the western markets. It's not that they will abandon them, but they now have the wherewithal to not be fixated on them, a significant change. They had to export cheap and work really hard for a long time, just so they could get access to western currencies so they could turn around and get the high tech goodies from those nations. This is done, accomplished for the most part. They can build most anything, in mass quantities, at globally competitive prices, and will now just get better at it.

  Now stage two, the big shift, where they emphasize their internal markets more, the thing I said was 'coming soon". It got here. Here is the reference, China and internal markets They move this way and institute polices to rapidly expand their middle classes, this makes them really much wealthier, and eliminates the potential for mass social unrest (while the western nations are killing off their middle classes and increasing the odds of mass social unrest...)

  Stage three is then another expansionist move they will make into areas of the world where they source raw materials from. This will be an almost unprecedented diaspora type event, millions of people going to set up businesses in cooperation with the locals, on a much larger scale than they are doing now, which is impressive enough. they have to, they have to get millions to move someplace else, they have run out of water and arable land at home. They will develop way more of an interest exporting and trading with these raw resource areas than they have with just the fiat currency "consuming" nations (they want real stuff for their manufactured goods now, they have about had it exchanging IOUs for just relabeled other sorts of IOUs for all their expotts. This has gotten old for them. It's also why they started unpegging from the dollar). This big change will also include exporting just a ton of their population as a necessity move. They *have* to, they have no choice at all, all you had to do to see this was look at some simple data from years ago, demographics and so on, and extrapolate it. They have to lose tens of millions of their people out, or run dry, plus they have this hugemongous young male surplus, plus people with good college degrees and no domestic jobs for them. that means..they have to go expansionist.. They simply do not have the water and the space any more, and need to keep expanding, or their fatcats lose their cushy jobs and heads..so the orders will come down to go this way, because that is the only other option they have, internal collapse, or expand..

  This will be part of the deals they arrange with a lot of foreign nations, offer them all kinds of manufacturing help and natural resource extraction help, and a ton of "engineers" and so on moving there will be part of the deal. That stage three move, when it begins in earnest, will be (IMO) the tipping point for the US to lose world's reserve currency status, right then, and to hit a really fast decline (barring some other real hard to predict wildcard). There will be "enough" indicators for that point to narrow the timing down better once it gets closer, that's when the major dollar rout will occur.

Much fun and games in the USA then.

(just a note: the past full month now my net connection has been more down than up, and even when up really flaky. I was more relying on my slow cell connection and "bent" the TOS a little-tethering- just to have any connection at all, so I didn't want to push it and lose that as well. I use a WISP and they got hammered with a huge batch of the radios we customers use that are all crapping out just a scosh past warranty, and they are proprietary and expensive. They've replaced mine twice now, but only a matter of time before it craps out again, and the speeds are really slow now. So it goes. Allegedly they might switch to a more "4g" technology and apparently I might be on the shortlist for the initial trials. Anyway, that's the reason I was mostly absent for several weeks, I could only skim the major stories and add the odd comment before losing connection, didn't have the luxury of my normal JE back and forths until just a coupla days ago.)

Fascinating

[improfane]

This is absolutely insightful and similtar to what I am really afraid of but nobody listens.

Re:

[tomhudson]

Insightful for sure.

The UN last month called for dropping the greenback as the sole reserve currency [reuters.com]

A new United Nations report released on Tuesday calls for abandoning the U.S. dollar as the main global reserve currency, saying it has been unable to safeguard value.

The dollar has not been able to hold its' value - look at the drop of 95% in the last 4 decades. What cost a nickel back than now costs a buck or more (there's some variation by sector, but overall, it's been pretty grim).

GM already sell [guardian.co.uk]