chongo's Journal: 2002-XY38 asteroid update for 2003-Jan-26 16:00 UTC

The model for asteroid 2002-XY38 has been refined due to 4 additional observations. We now have 41 observations spanning more than 48 days.

The Torino impact hazard scale for 2002-XY38 remains at a 0. The cumulative Palermo Scale has dropped from -2.64 to -6.28.

The size of 2002-XY38 is still estimated to be 90m in diameter. The impact velocity (if it were to hit the Earth) remains in the low to medium range of ~12.95 km/sec.

The odds of 2002-XY38 impacting the Earth in the next 100 years has dropped from 1 in ~1,300 to 1 in ~1,833,333. Even so, at those odds there is a 99.999988% chance that it will NOT hit the Earth in the next 100 years.

The 1st close approach is still 24 Feb 2084. On that date 2002-XY38 will miss the Earth by ~1290 km instead of only 1290 km. The other close approach in the next 100 years occurs on 23 Feb 2090 with a very close pass of only ~125 km!

Currently, 2002-XY38 is #31 on the current impact risks table. It is possible that over the next few months, additional observations will allow the model for 2002-XY38 to be refined.

P.S. There is no change is status for 1997-XR2. That asteroid remains as the only non-zero Torino impact hazard scale object.

P.P.S. The most probable known NEA impactor in the next 100 years is 2000-SG344, with a 1 in ~556 chance is hitting the Earth before the year 2103. This asteroid has a Torino impact hazard scale of 0 and a cumulative Palermo Scale of only -3.08. The 1st close approach is not until 2068 Sep 19 (5975 km), although there is a 450 km close approach on 2073 Sep 12.

Asteroid 2000-SG344 is #3 on the current impact risks table because this it is a small NEA (only 40m in diameter) and any impacts would be somewhat on the lower end of the velocity scale (about 11.3 km/sec). If 2000-SG344 were to hit the Earth, it would produce an event that would compare to the Tunguska event in 1908.

On a different, but astronomy related note: Please consider donating something to the Mt. Stromlo Redevelopment and Bushfire Relief Fund .