Journal JohnnyComeLately's Journal: I'll call it now: Obama wins, we return to Carter/Clinton 4
I think we're about to see a huge repeat of history. Those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat it (sorta like the credit crisis...do a google of the S&L Bailout from the 80's). Carter came from no where and had a similar grass roots background, but no real exposure to leading in business or politics. If you look at most political failures, whether it's W, Carter, or most others, it's inexperience leading to appointing the wrong people to important positions. Reagan and Bush Sr surrounded themselves with bright people and had outside barometers (e.g. Nancy Reagan) and they did well. Inexperience tends to lead to the problems Clinton often had. The economy hummed along and everyone ignored the failing Foreign Policy (e.g. keeping North Korea, India, etc from going nuclear) and constant sideshows (e.g. "I did not have sex with that woman").
So why will Obama win? The perfect storm brewed and McCain seems to have the same problem as Bush Sr. Communication. Joe Plumber is late to the game but a prime example. Why should I buy a $250,000 business when I know I instantly have a target? Let's put it another way, if you believe Obama's got a great plan to tax the rich more and "spread their success", then you've got to be a fan of the current financial market bailout. We're taking from those who are successful, meaning businesses and rich people making money, and giving to those who aren't successful (today) like AIG, and the ilk. Didn't this approach work well for Russia, China, Cuba....oh wait, that's right. It didn't. Enter Joe SixPack Plumber. I'm rewarded for staying where I am now, but if I increase my chance of success by buying this business I increase my taxes automatically. I've personally owned my own business, so I really don't believe Obama when he says 95% are below. If you have a retail store, you need close to $200k in annual income just to meet overhead (taxes, payroll, utilities, etc). My rent alone was close to $50k annually for prime retail in Southern California, but I digress. Although I don't care for McCain or Obama, McCain's actual rhetoric has the better chance of turning things around, however that message doesn't make it across Joe Q. Public.
The perfect storm has also risen to give Obama the edge. The economy has hit several storms. Everyone laughed at Dubya (Bush) when he was a presidential candidate in 1999 and said we were about to see a contraction in the market. I guess he actually did pay attention to some MacroEconomics classes during his MBA. I saw it, my mom saw it while working on Wall St, and yet, everyone in the news thought the "irrational exuberance" would continue. The bubble burst, and the skid began. Then energy started to play it's hand. Warren Buffet started heavily investing in energy in the early 90s. Hmmmm....why? At the time gas was still around $1.40, so why? As I've always said about Wall St, "He who has the best information wins," and he saw the rapid expansion of overseas demand for energy. We haven't invested in new sources of energy in decades: so when demand spikes with no relief valve for supply, what happens?? Welcome to $4 a gal gas. It's here to stay unless we find a relief in supply (drill for more, alt sources, less regulatory burdens, etc). But energy and the bubble bursting wasn't enough, Wall St had a taste for double digit returns and started undervaluing risk. Enter subprime lending... Stage is set and the cast is in motion for a great tragedy... I saw it. People were willing to give us crazy money to buy our house and it was way to easy to "verify income". A highschool drop out could forge the documents and "qualify" for a $500k home. The well was poisoned when those loans got repackaged with more traditional, stable loans, and this brought the "good guys" down with the bad guys. Of course, none of this has anything to do with the president, but most people aren't smart enough to know this. Obama says we need to regulate and create more oversight, yet we had some of the most restrictive regulations in history leading up to the Savings S&L crisis. What unleashed the 2 decades of thriving economy afterwards? De-regulation. You saw it in S&L, airlines, and telecommunications (Baby Bell breakup). However, people buy into this "change" and "dream" notion that an inexperienced guy beats out decades of experience. They did it with Carter and they'll do it with Obama. Ignore the 16 years of success in financial markets, but we'll associate the Republicans, W, and McCain with the last 2. Funny thing is this: The president has no real influence over regulation, financial markets, or any of the failures we see today (with the exception of the perceived failures in Iraq and Afghanistan...he's directly responsible for foreign policy).
People want change and I can't blame them. However, perception is reality. If you paint the picture and people buy it, then it's real. Clinton made the economy strong (nevermind Volker or Greenspan), Reagan tore down the wall (nevermind Congress approving billions in defense spending and the bankrupt model of communism), and Carter is a foreign policy/economic genius (bwaahahahahahahaa....I can't believe I wrote that). I mean, Carter's got a Nobel Peace Prize, right?
I'll just leave this one parting shot: Get your this W-4 out, no matter how much money you make, because you're going to be paying more taxes after next year when Obama wins. It happened with Carter and Clinton, and it's about to happen again. The democrats control the House and Senate, and with the Presidency, they'll probably try to make much of Obama's plan happen. Health care will die a quick death as it did with Clinton, but we'll see class warfare and redistribution of wealth. Government and spending will rise, while your after-tax dollars drop (when adjusted for inflation). When you're bummed that you work harder to make less, be happy!! Obama helped you share your success!! YEAH YOU!!
A couple of misses... (Score:2)
W, Carter, or most others, it's inexperience leading
W has an MBA, and was in charge of several different companies or investments groups over the years. He was also governor of Texas [wikipedia.org] for almost 6 years. I guess that is what experience brings you... nothing.
keeping North Korea, India, etc from going nuclear
India went nuclear in 1974 [wikipedia.org], while Ford was president. Jimmy Carter [wikipedia.org] was elected in 1976. North Korea went nuclear in 2006.
constant sideshows (e.g. "I did not have sex with that woman").
And that became an American obsession why? Oh yeah, because the family values republicans (who were themselves cheating on their wives) from congress brought it to the forefront.
Re: (Score:2)
Why would I believe it's is proposal to redistribute the wealth? Because he said those exact words. If you haven't seen the footage of the interaction between Joe the Plumber and Obama, watch it. He comes right out and says it, "We are helping those behind you [those under 250,000] with your success", and "I want to support consumers from the bottom up." If you're cutting the tax for those below 250k, and increasing it by roughly the same for those above 250k, how else would you describe it? I didn't r
Revenue vs Income (Score:2)
No you don't- you need $200k in annual REVENUE. Your taxable income could well be $0, and in fact, if you're like