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Using Google to Calculate Web Decay
Posted by
timothy
on Tue Apr 30, 2002 03:22 AM
from the bit-rot-quantified dept.
from the bit-rot-quantified dept.
scottennis writes: "Google has yet another application: measuring the rate of decay of information on the web.
By plotting the number of results at 3,6, and 12 months for a series of phrases, this study claims to have uncovered a corresponding 60-70-80 percent decay rate.
Essentially, 60% of the web changes every 3 months." You may be amused by some of the phrases he notes as exceptional, too.
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Using Google to Calculate Web Decay
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At last! (Score:1, Interesting)
Google's collection of the data (Score:2, Interesting)
Surely this can't be true. Check Google's cached pages - see the dates on there?
Google is turning into another history book [archive.org].
Not exactly decay... (Score:4, Interesting)
That said, this is one of the many ways in which Google is an invaluable tool for research. Not just finding information, but generating it. Thanks Google!
bill gates sucks... (Score:2, Funny)
Re:bill gates sucks... (Score:5, Interesting)
Let's face facts here. We might hate Microsoft, but the vast majority of people do not. Good? Bad? Indifferent?
Kierthos
Re:bill gates sucks... (Score:4, Insightful)
It's an indicator of the dubious kind of context in which one finds such rash statements.
An ever-eveolving creature? (Score:1)
blessed (Score:4, Funny)
I don't look forward to that day.
Long live cheese and cheese makers!
Web Death (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Web Death (Score:4, Interesting)
Also this, which is just a link from the previous article. [unl.edu]
Easy! :)
(web's half-life -game -unreal -counter -gamers)
baseline (Score:1)
A few things... (Score:1)
First of all, he showed very little of his actual data. This makes it difficult to tell if his interpretation is correct.
Thirdly, what the heck was this guy smoking when he came up with search phrases. Most of these phrases seem to be tangental to the main purpose of most web sitees on the internet.
Finally, Timothy, why didn't you put the foot icon by the story?
One of the flaws (Score:2, Troll)
But, it is interesting to see his results. I can only imagine that if Archive.org [archive.org] did a study like this, they would be able to make a more legitimate conclusion. Perhaps some collaboration is in order?
Obligatory Full Text (Score:5, Informative)
Web Decay
by Scott Ennis
4/26/2002
Knowing how anxious most companies are to keep their web content "fresh," I was curious how "fresh" the web itself was.
In order to come up with a freshness rating for the web you need to sample a very large number of pages. Not wanting to do this, I opted to use the Google search engine as a method for reviewing the web as a whole.
My hypothesis is this: By searching Google using some common english phrases and returning results at various time points, a baseline can be reached for the common rate of freshness of overall web content.
I took the total number of pages found for each given phrase at 3, 6, and 12 months. I calculated a percentage for each of these points based on the total number of results found with no date specified.
For example: Phrase 3 mos. 6 mos. 12 mos. Total
buy low sell high 4700 5470 6200 7830
60% 70% 79% 100%
Note:
This method excludes any pages which are not text and more specifically, not English text.
This method relies on a random sampling of phrases.
Using this methodology I determined that the average rate of decay of the web follows a 60-70-80 percent decline at 3, 6, and 12 months.
Therefore, If a company wants to maintain a freshness rate on par with the web as a whole, their site content should be updated at the inverse rate. In other words:
60% of the site should change every 3 months
70% of the site should change every 6 months
80% of the site should change every 12 months
The only way to do this effectively is to either have a very small site, or have a site with dynamically generated information.
The following graph shows the decay rate for a few phrases. I selected these phrase to display because of their unique characteristics.
bill gates sucks--This phrase had the lowest decay rate of any phrases I searched.
life's short play hard--This phrase had the greatest decay rate of any I searched (note: this search was also very small).
blessed are the cheesemakers--This phrase was relatively small, but demonstrates that quantity of pages may not be important in determining decay rate.
late at night--This phrase returned the highest number of results of any I searched and yet it also adheres closely to the 60-70-80 rule.
Conclusion:
Web content decays at a uniform, determinable rate. Sites wanting to optimize their content freshness need to maintain a rate of freshness that corresponds to the rate of web decay.
Free hosting is a bad bargain (Score:4, Insightful)
Not to mention that well over 50% of the time any search engine result that points to Angelfire in particular points to a 404 Not Found. This is much more than what I experience with other sites. Do their users get kicked off often, or just go away, or what? I don't even bother clicking on those results unless it looks like the content is truly compelling. And thank God for Google's cache.
I can understand if some truly can't afford hosting, but even for these people, even Geocities is much better!
Somehow I doubt the majority of those people using Angelfire, Tripod, etc can't afford hosting.
Well, after the dot-com world gets a little more squeezed, those sites may no longer exist. Too bad that many people won't bother rehosting their content and will just drop off the web.
olm.net [olm.net] offers Linux [linux.com] based hosting for under $9/month. No I don't work for them, but I am a (satisfied) customer.
$9 a month - and you won't piss off your users.
(Yes I know their other packages are more - but the $9 a month package is better than any of the free services)
Don't EVEN get me started on organizations and commercial BUSINESSES (ack!) that use free hosting - that is so unprofessional. I don't think I'd want to do business with a company (even a local store) that wouldn't/couldn't pay $9 a month to have a less annoying and more reliable website.
Of course, some of the content out on the Web isn't even worth $9/month, heck some of it has NEGATIVE worth.
Study: World Wide Web sites and page persistence (Score:5, Interesting)
Digital libraries and World Wide Web sites and page persistence [informationr.net]
Sig: What Happened To The Censorware Project (censorware.org) [sethf.com]
Intermittence (Score:4, Funny)
For example, most web pages linked to in slashdot articles.
Credibility? (Score:2, Interesting)
From the evidence, he searched for very few phrases. The sample size is way too low to be representive of the web - which some estimates put at several billion more pages than there are people on the planet! There are no signs of more than about 5 different phrases being searched for here..
Can a few simple searches on Google really generate a large enough sample to draw such large conclusions?
The report is one page long, hosted on Angelfire. There is no substantial data to back up his claims. Is this report reliable in any way?
I'm amazed this got posted on the front page of Slashdot..
archive.org (Score:3, Interesting)
P.S. Are we losing information at a comparable rate to generation....?
interesting but... (Score:3, Interesting)
Phrase 3 mos 6 mos 12 mos. Total
buy low sell high 4700 5470 6200 7830
60% 70% 79% 100%
seems to demonstrate the opposite of the trend that he describes. Indeed, a current search on google [google.com] shows about 1,270,000 results (makes you wonder when he did his searches that the current number of results is so many orders of magnitude in difference). The methodology also fails to take in to account any growth in the size of the web, which could mask the effects of decay.
The Web is decaying (Score:5, Funny)
Yet another crippling bombshell hit the beleaguered web community when recently IDC confirmed that the web accounts for less than a fraction of 1 percent of all server usage. Coming on the heels of the latest Netcraft survey which plainly states that the web has lost more market share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. The web is collapsing in complete disarray, as further exemplified by failing dead last [samag.com] in the recent Sys Admin comprehensive networking usage test.
You don't need to be a Kreskin [amdest.com] to predict the web's future. The hand writing is on the wall: the web faces a bleak future. In fact there won't be any future at all for the web because the web is decaying. Things are looking very bad for the web. As many of us are already aware, the web continues to lose market share. Red ink flows like a river of blood. Dot-coms are the most endangered of them all, having lost 93% of their core developers.
Let's keep to the facts and look at the numbers.
The web leader Theo states that there are 7000 users of the web. How many users of other protocols are there? Let's see. The number of the web versus other protocols posts on Usenet is roughly in ratio of 5 to 1. Therefore there are about 7000/5 = 1400 other protocols users. Web posts on Usenet are about half of the volume of other protocols posts. Therefore there are about 700 users of the web. A recent article put the web at about 80 percent of the HTTP market. Therefore there are (7000+1400+700)*4 = 36400 web users. This is consistent with the number of Usenet posts about the web.
Due to the troubles of Walnut Creek, abysmal sales and so on, the web went out of business and was taken over by Slashdot who sell another troubled web service. Now Slashdot is also dead, its corpse turned over to yet another charnel house.
All major surveys show that the web has steadily declined in market share. The web is very sick and its long term survival prospects are very dim. If the web is to survive at all it will be among hobbyist dabblers. The web continues to decay. Nothing short of a miracle could save it at this point in time. For all practical purposes, the web is dead.
Fact: the web is dead.
The guy who posted this may have made a mistake. (Score:2, Informative)
Better article needed (Score:5, Interesting)
BUT.... (Score:1)
But then again it is an interesting piece of trivia
we've lost the ability to rely on hyperlinks (Score:5, Insightful)
Thought and mod_rewrite are the key (Score:5, Insightful)
Let's look at a few examples.
The URI to this page is http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=31884&op=Repl
Well, for a start, that
Now let's look at an equivilent Kuro5hin [kuro5hin.org] URI.
http://www.kuro5hin.org/comments/2002/4/29/22137/
For a start, you can't tell what application or script is serving you the page, and you can't see what type of file it's linking to; both these things can and will change over time.
Second, there's a date embedded in there; you can see the developers, if they ever decide to change the meaning of '/comments', using that date as a reference; if the URI is before the change, they can map it onto the new schema or pass it onto legacy code.
Having the date in the URI is good because it allows you to determine when the link was issued, and map it onto any changes or pass it off to a legacy system as required.
Now let's take an apparantly good link on my now horribly out of date site, aagh.net [aagh.net].
http://www.aagh.net/php/style/ [aagh.net] links to an article on PHP coding style.
Certainly, hiding the fact that I'm using PHP to serve this document is good, and shortening the URI to remove the useless querystring is good (you can't see one? Good, that's the point), however, this URI may well stop working in a few weeks; I'm planning a redesign and the old schema may well not fit in well with it.
A short yyyymm in there could have made all the difference; a simple if check on the URI's issue date would keep it working.
The moral of the story: Think about your URI's when you're designing a site. Try to remove as much data as you can without painting yourself into a corner.
Stop Web Decay Today (Score:4, Funny)
Self-fulfilling prophecy? (Score:1, Funny)
Temporarily Unavailable
The Angelfire site you are trying to reach has been temporarily suspended due to excessive bandwidth consumption.
The site will be available again in approximately 2 hours!
Study? (Score:4, Insightful)
I appreciate the topic very much, but some more material on it is needed. This study wouldn't be complete enough even for high-school homework...
And look at his homepage (just remove the last part of the url). The most pages are more than two years old... that's decay!
Seriously speaking, just look for a few more sources before you accept a story.
Study claims ?? (Score:1, Insightful)
The guy that submited this story is the guy that did the study.
Google/CowboyNeal Study (Score:5, Funny)
Google gives us the following interesting results:
3,840,000 [google.com] sites contain the word Cheese.
1,640 [google.ch] sites contain the words CowboyNeal and Cheese.
Therefore, 4.27083333333333333333333333333e-2% of cheese related sites contain a reference to CowboyNeal.
As cheese is a randomly chosen word with no special connection to CowboyNeal it is reasonable to assume that 4.27083333333333333333333333333e-2% of all sites contain a reference to The Cowboy (Assuming the number of sites dedicated to CowboyNeal equals the number dedicated to ignoring him).
So there we have it. The web is 99.957291666666666666666666666667% CowboyNeal free.
I said the results were "precise", not "accurate".
Re:Google/CowboyNeal Study (Score:4, Funny)
S
major source of web decay: (Score:1)
Not that accurate (Score:2)
Jakob Nielsen: Web Pages Must Live Forever (Score:3, Interesting)
One More Reason Why The Web Sucks (Score:1)
The Angelfire site you are trying to reach has been temporarily suspended due to excessive bandwidth consumption."
Imagine that you were renting a building and running a business - a retail store. One day, the owner of the bulding comes in and padlocks the doors and says "Sorry, you can't re-open till the first of the month - too many people have come into your store".
What stupidity.
Needs a broader range (Score:1)
If he really wanted a large search he should have tried "porn".....
Heh.. Talk about web decay. (Score:5, Funny)
Looks like 100% of the link mentioned in this article decayed in a little under 5 minutes!
Cheers,
Google "pages found" data (Score:3, Interesting)
While the numbers clearly aren't totally random, they are very fragile indeed. Some people have had a change of two orders of magnitude, within a week. And in these cases, there have usually been no real world events that could explain such a change. I guess the google page hits numbers depend as much on the internal google structure, as on the number of actual pages on the web.
So I doubt google page hits statistics is a useful research tool. Nonetheless, it can be fun. Here are some google hall of fame lists:
- A list of the most famous Danes [slashdot.org] according
to google [google.com].
- A list of free software
celebrities [slashdot.org] according to google [google.com].
- A list of Emacs contributors [slashdot.org] sorted
according to google [google.com] hits.
- A list of sequential artists [slashdot.org] sorted
according to google [google.com] hits.
- A list of OS (Kernel) Mindshare [slashdot.org] sorted
according to google [google.com] hits.
PS: Mail me to suggest new entries to the lists.average and real life persistance of documents (Score:2)
not that it was an interesting document - just a little paper about nothing important. But still, it's out there.
My thoughts? I think that as long as a website can be "saved" in some form, its content will be available in other forms for a long amount of time.
this should make people think, especially those who put copyrights on their webpages, or don't want some information to spread around.
could we say that information want to be free as long as it's downloadable?
hmm..
I conclude there is no decay ! (Score:1)
Sex
Warez
mp3
I have discovered that amazingly, my results differ substantially !
In conclusion, then, it seems that content is ultimately always fresh and there is no indication of decay !
Wide jump from findings to conclusion (Score:5, Interesting)
What scares me here is the conclusion that web sites need to change their content 60% every 3 months. This is not freshness, this is reorganizing to re-organize. If you are considering doing this, you had better seriously re-consider your future. Its an interesting study but a good meme doesn't die simply because the catch-phrases are tired.
At faculty meetings at our school I sit with a bingo card. On it are a series of catch-phrases. We listen for the catch-phrases and shout out when we have finished our cards. B***SH*T is the game and to reduce your content to a series of reorganized catch-phrases is like having a marketing guy develop foreign policy.
Anyone willing to write the perl module that searches for the latest catch-phrases and inserts them randomly into your web content. Yeesh!
Google measurements--varied and fun! (Score:2, Funny)
Decay (Score:1)
The Slashdotted Decay Rate (Score:1)
:)
Google Study in Another Place (Score:5, Informative)
http://helen.lifeseller.com/webdecay.html [lifeseller.com]
I've also included a link to the raw data I used.
Local storage of information that I want to keep (Score:1)
For years, whenever I've found an article that I've liked, or data that I thought would be useful later on, I've always either saved the
Ryan
website offline (Score:1)
guidelines for content change? (Score:2)
This seems so totally- "if everyone else is
jumping off the Brooklyn Bridge, then we
should to" by itself that it discredits what
sliver of credibility the article had. Using
a web-wide average as a guideline for what
a particular web site "should do" is
meaningless. Web sites should present timely,
appropriate information that is useful to
those who visit. Some sites deal with
material that changes frequently (stock quotes
and sports sites should be presumably updated
regularly) and some sites deal with material
that does not change frequently (no need to
redo your tech support documents for long-
out of production products every week.)
This notion of `freshness' is ill-defined,
poorly measured and of dubious value.
Phrases that won't suffer any decay, ever: (Score:1)
1. Here is tonight's top 10 list
2. Critical Updates Package (138 MB)
3. Hey Ho Let's Go
4. Nobody's perfect
and, of course
5. News for nerds, stuff that matters
Grub.org wants to keep its database current. (Score:1)
Decay - is this a joke :-) (Score:1)
Decay and archives (Score:1)
What about archives? They should not care about being 'fresh' beyond adding stuff to the archive. I want to be able to bookmark something in an archive for future reference and be able to come back to it in three years and still find it there, just like a library.
The argument that web sites should change 60% of their content in order to keep up with the average is like saying we should all be wearing puke-green colored clothes because that's the average color of the universe - the reason has nothing to do with reality. Web content should be as 'fresh' as the information being provided demands of it. Weather forcasts should change daily, stockmarkets - hourly, slow pitch standings - monthly, and so on.
Irony! (Score:2)
Using Google to Calculate Public Opinion (Score:1)
If someone has, you could graph the ratio of positive/negative posts to USENET for a set of keywords over time.
One could also graph the total volume. That would be much easier.
The first last post of the new revolution (Score:1)
Using Google to Solve Age Old Disputes (Score:1)
Re:Applying statistics meaningfully (Score:1)
For you, yes, it is a joke. (Score:1)
Re:shameless self promotion (Score:1)
Re:Completely Incorrect! (Score:1)