Tech Industry Warns Of Memory / LCD Shortage 81
yankeehack writes: "Oh Joy! The Standard published this article which explains predicted shortages of critical memory and LCD components (resulting in-of course-higher prices and delayed product launches). Component makers including Intel, Hyundai, NEC and Sharp Electronics are among those quoted for the article. Those afflicted by the shortage include Nintendo's Game Boy Advanced handheld console (Does anybody *still* use those?) which will be released 6 months late and mobile phone manufacturers, who are having trouble getting the hardware for all those nifty features they advertise."
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
please excuse the +1 on the above post.. (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Because starting this May, the midwest was forced to change over to reformulated gas. It *will* happen around the rest of the country if Algore gets his way. Some of the price is due to pipeline maintenance, but more than 25 cents was directly atributed to RFG.
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Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:2)
Dave
Jesus christ, thank god. (Score:5)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Re:Gee, who's surprised? (Score:2)
Re:Well LCD's maybe, (Score:1)
Don't know about that.. I was paying 65/128MB in August of 1999... Thats a bit lower than 49/64MB
A funny thing.. 2 weeks ago (on the 12th) I got a 256MB PC100 for 185.. The same place now has it at 205... Seems strange that all of a sudden these are going up in price.. Oh well.. I guess I'll do what I did when RAM hit 300/128MB last year.. Wait for the price to drop again.. Right ?
Re:Let's all thank windows for this. (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Yeah we still use those (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
But no, reality isn't particularly 'diverse' much as some people would wish it so.
Re:Gee, who's surprised? (Score:1)
--Josh
You would think so wouldn't you.... (Score:1)
Vermifax
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
While this might not be the case here, enviroment-mania is running rampart in this country.
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
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Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
All I can say is that I'm happy that I bought my new processor board LAST month.
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Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
I am also happy I beefed up my ram last month :^)
Re:Well LCD's maybe, (Score:1)
I bought 256 megs of PC133 SDRAM toward the end of March; the price back then was about $210 (from a reputable vendor, not a Pricewatch lowballer). I just checked the same vendor's price for the same memory; they're now up to $270. Prices are up, but not by an obscene margin (not like the way gas prices here skyrocketed a month or so ago...on a completely off-topic tangent, why isn't it news when the screws are put to Las Vegas motorists, but it's on the front page when the exact same thing happens in the Midwest?).
In any case, it's still cheaper on a per-megabyte basis than the $80 I paid to add 512K to my Apple IIe back in '90 or '91...:-)
_/_
/ v \
(IIGS( Scott Alfter (remove Voyager's hull # to send mail)
\_^_/
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Because whiney treehugers like AlGore care about trees more than people.
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Shortage is *now*, never mind later predicted. (Score:3)
Our assembly house recently bought a reel of 330 uF tantalum caps for US$15/piece. With an MOQ of 1000, that cost US$15,000, which is more than the average new car in this country! (.nz) That's one reel of capacitors! The guy had about an hour to make the decision to buy before someone else bought it instead.
This problem is not new. It is just getting worse. We have been told tantalums will be impossible to get (for prototyping groups like ourselves) in the next few months.
For some reason, we haven't had difficulty getting flash ROMs like other people have. I put that down to the package type (PLCC) we use.
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
Naivety is fun! In all seriousness, I am aware of and do not support unethical business practice. This appears to be capitalism at its best. If only I was a chip manufacturer... If only I have purchased Rambus at 40, and sold at 400... (or OneVoice ($2 - $22, 3 months), or Xybernaut, same time frame...)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Yep, there's no ultimate truth. You get to believe in a flat earth, if it meshes well with your belief system. Kewl!
I'm afraid you're wrong, sadly. There are quite a few delusions, and at least at this point, none of us know everything. So we all carry around our approximations of reality.
Please don't drag out some hokum new age drivel in defense, please.
Re:Not only handheld devices (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
$8.50 per chip??? (Score:2)
Well, anyway, I am a bit curious as to whether or not this is completely market-driven. I know that this won't explain all the shortages, but I remember that RAM became fairly pricey after the Taiwan earthquake. Is it possible we're still feeling after-effects of that? (I recall reading somewhere that Taiwan makes 70% of the world's DRAM, correct me if I'm wrong.)
Any thoughts?
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Business is not your enemy. Scare mongers like Al Gore are.
Re:Let's all thank windows for this. (Score:1)
Re:Game boy Advanced... (Score:1)
yankeehack's wondering if people still use Game Boys? Hasn't heard of Pokemon?
That is a Game Boy game, you know...
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Zardoz has spoken!
Re:$8.50 per chip??? (Score:2)
For one sided DIMM, that's 8 (or 9 for ECC) chips, or for doubled sided, 16 (or 18). So that comes out to $68 for a 64meg DIMM (SS) and $136 for a 128meg DIMM (DS), more for ECC. And that's just the cost of buying the chips for DIMMs. There are of course are few more parts, materials, and assumbly production costs, as well as distribution and related sales costs. The chips will be the biggest part, but don't expect DIMMs to be as low as $68 or $136 of the chip prices are $8.50.
What I heard was the most of Taiwan manufacturing was back online in about 2-3 weeks. That would have had an effect lasting longer, but I doubt if it is the significant effect any more, unless there was some unrepairable damage in manufacturing there.
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
And therefore, my comment that your "get a grip on reality" was misplaced. You two were NOT disagreeing on reality; you were disagreeing on something which is not an axiom.
But relatively few things are axioms.
My frustration lies in that absolutist arguments always seem to degenerate to "get a grip, get a job, live in the real world for a while."
Hehe, maybe I should get back to work, or maybe go to bed, yeah!
Re:Game boy Advanced... (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Considering environmental damage, maybe 10 bucks per gallon would be closer to reality...
Hardly.
eventually we're going to run out of gas anyways, and expect gas to cost that $10 after some 15 years anyways, without tax!
Doubtful, considering the historical track record of predicting gas reserves. Here's a hint: if any accepted predictions from the first half of this century came true, we would have no oil now.
There is enough oil for more than 15 years of consumption. Much more.
Re:Shortage is *now*, never mind later predicted. (Score:1)
That's why its good to be a programmer. It just gives me more time to work while the hardware guys scramble for parts.
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:2)
Legal Notice (Score:2)
Tech Firms May Have to Fish for Memory Chips
Legal Notice
According to our legal staff, The Standard is infringing on our patent #31415926, A Method for Producing Loud Groans and Retching Noises, with this lame pun. We are therefore warning The Standard to immediately cease and desist from this infringement or face legal action.
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Game boy Advanced... (Score:4)
Not only handheld devices (Score:1)
PDA's, too? (Score:1)
I suppose back-order is a good thingm, since I have a Monday deadline on another project anyway...
I wonder what the lag-time between chip manufacturers implementing new, more dense technology and top-tier manufacturers buying that technology is?
Hmmmm.... (Score:3)
Ok big shock. Extreme shortages around times when people are buying more, allowing for increased prices.
Does this sound fishy to anyone else? It sounds to me like the hardware industry is taking advantage of the record number of computers and other devices that will be sold this year.
Maybe I'm just being paranoid but this isn't the only "shortage" we're having. Gotten gas lately?
People may be getting a little more greedy....
Whaddaya mean... " *still* use those? " (Score:2)
> Nintendo's Game Boy Advanced handheld console
>(Does anybody *still* use those?) which will be
Don't be such a snob. Let's not forget that one of the most succesful RPG adventures in recent time appeared exclusively on the Game Boy. You might have heard of it; it's an obscure little game by the name of "Pokémon". The fact that Nintendo is still here today, in spite of overwhelming competition from Sony (and to a lesser degree, Sega) can be attributed mostly to the success of the Game Boy. That's not bad for a piece of twenty-year old technology. I only wish PC programmers knew how to extend the lifespans of their platforms like that.
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
Everyone is out to get you. It's 'The Man' back at it again.
Yep, it is.
Indeed.
Uh-huh.
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Conveniently, their belief allows them to pull all kinds of gratifying power moves.
If I thought saving the world involved stealing your car and bopping your girl, wouldn't life be grand. Sadly, I have a better grip on reality than that. Oh well.
Re:I Have one word for you . . (Score:2)
Windows
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Gee, who's surprised? (Score:2)
I can't recall if the fact that virtually all US companies stopped making DRAMs was the cause of the shortage or the direct result.
Even today, only Micron still makes DRAM chips stateside. (Did they ever open that Idaho facility?)
Nintendo's Game Boy Advanced handheld console... (Score:3)
Of course! How else am I going to play Pokémon?
People don't use the Game Boy Advanced because.... (Score:1)
Re:Gee, who's surprised? (Score:1)
My first 16 Megs of DRAM (4x4MB SIMMs) cost over $600.
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
You might find these links interesting and enlightening:
Chesapeake and O.RY. Co. v. Kuhn [findlaw.com]
Cadwalader v. Wanamaker [findlaw.com]
An excerpt from the former:
In cases like this, where damages are claimed under the Federal Employers' Liability Act (45 USCA 51-59), defense of the assumption of the risk is permissible and where the undisputed evidence clearly shows such assumption the trial judge should direct a verdict for the defendant. Moreover, in proceedings under that act, wherever brought, the rights and obligations of the parties depend upon it [284 U.S. 44, 47] and applicable principles of common law as interpreted and applied in the federal courts. Seaboard Air Line Ry. v. Horton, 233 U.S. 492, 508 , 34 S. Ct. 625, L. R. A. 1915C, 1, Ann. Cas. 1915B, 475; Chesapeake & Ohio R. R. v. De Atley, 241 U.S. 310 , 36 S. Ct. 564; Boldt v. Pennsylvania R. R., 245 U.S. 441, 445 , 38 S. Ct. 139; New Orleans & N. E. R. R. v. Harris, 247 U.S. 367, 371 , 38 S. Ct. 535; Chicago, Milwaukee & St. Paul Ry. v. Coogan, 271 U.S. 472, 474 , 46 S. Ct. 564
I don't believe in fake shortages (Score:1)
Well, to be accurate, I don't believe all of it. I believe that those businesses are evil, of course, and they're obviously big. I just don't believe that having had the chance to rip us off before, they'd have neglected to start until now. I can just picture the unlucky lackey to point that out to his (evil) boss: "What, you mean we could have been selling this stuff for twice as much, and you didn't tell me sooner? Go raise our prices, then clean out your desk!"
Re:Gee, who's surprised? (Score:3)
First, Japanese companies stepped up production and captured market share in the US.
Second, Japan prevented American companies from marketing there (among many other protectionist measures).
Third, the US, concerned about the imbalance of trade, passed an anti-dumping law. Companies importing products like DRAM at prices far below the existing US market could have their products blocked or tariffed punitively.
Fourth, crushed by increasingly tight margins in the RAM market, American companies switched to mainly producing processors.
Thus, despite the law, intended to help American companies compete in the RAM market, there were few American companies selling RAM anymore; and RAM coming in from Japan, then the main source, was either turned away or heavily taxed. The end result was that the only RAM available was expensive.
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Re:PDA's, too? (Score:1)
I'm supposed to be R&D'ing software for PalmPilots right about now, but am still waiting for mine (And have been for quite a while).
I wanted to email you regarding Palm software but unfortunately you don't have an email address listed in your /. profile. Perhaps you could email me?
Let's all thank windows for this. (Score:1)
Ever notice that the average users uses his PC to do spread sheets, word processing, and surfing the net. In the mid 90's the average pc buyer used his (or her) pc to do the same thing. Could they still use their 486 to do what they do now on their pentium III (average pc users don't buy AMD?) Ok the programs now have many more bells and whistles but how many people actually use them on a regular basis?
If it weren't for games and Bill gates sending out ever more bloated bloatware (which people buy even though they don't need it in order to "keep up with the latest technology") PC sales would probably drop. Just some food for thought.
Ok, I will stop ranting for now.
Re:Not only handheld devices (Score:1)
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
That's just because they're paying a lot more in taxes on it. In Europe, the actual cost of the fuel is not that much different than it is here. It's all the added taxes that make it cost so much.
Re:Gas shortage? slap the childish oil companies. (Score:1)
That is garbage.
The large metro areas in the US have been required to use oxygenated gasoline for years. This is commonly done in two ways: adding ethanol or MTBE(I think that's the acronym for the chemical). The petrol companies prefer the latter because it's petroleum based, makes them more money, and they don't have to deal with the ethanol producers. However, it has been shown that MTBE finds it's way very quickly to ground water (you know..the stuff you drink).
Because of this the EPA has required some areas to use only ethanol. While this makes farm states happy because it creates more demand for corn, it pissed off the oil companies and some environmentalists who claim that while it does reduce some components of smog, it productes more CO2.
It also has been shown that there isn't a shortage of gasoline in the midwest. The oil companies are in a snit and are jacking up the prices to generate consumer backlash against the ethanol requirement so they can go back to the more profitable but more harmful MTBE. It is interesting that while the oil companies in the Chicago and Milwalkee markets are blaming ethanol, in several areas gasoline with ethanol has been cheaper than regular gasoline for decades. Saying that this raises costs is ridiculous. They have been producing it for years! They also generate several different grades of fuel depending on the time of the year (the gas you buy in the summer is different than what you get in the winter), so saying that switching costs them more is total bullshit.
Like the Microsoft case, some conservatives have taken a technical issue and have politicized it. I wish they would stick to realm of politics. Making non-political issues political just because one doesn't like the current administration is stupid. I hate Clinton & Gore as much as anyone, but the reason for the price increase is due to oil company temper tantrums.
Re:Gee, who's surprised? (Score:2)
The pendulum shortages/crashes of commodity devices like RAM are one reason why Intel got out of the business in the late 1970s.
--LP
Disclaimer: I've tracked RAM prices on pricewatch for several years but my analysis is more conjecture based on reading trade press than first-hand knowledge.
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
Boy, I'd really like my desktop to have 1GB of RAM. I'd also like computers to be made out of milk chocolate so they can be recycled easily. There might be some thermal tolerance issues there, but with low voltage devices, that shouldn't be a problem...
In order to meet a demand, that demand must be anticipated. It is only good business practice that chip manufs. are expecting this surge around September.
I was discussing with some people "bacterial evolution"-- a subject which admittedly I have limited exposure to. I brought up an argument of "Better Bacteria Through Natural Selection." and was met with, "That's just pharmeceuticals trying to sell you something."
It stands to reason (to me, anyway) that disinfectants, if not applied properly, cannot guarantee destruction of 100% of bacteria and viral strains. My mother is a nurse, and has seen first hand this evolution. A brand of staph infection (MRSA? I believe) that exists only in hospitals, which became a breeding ground for the naturally selected vermin. (people have called me that, too.)
Talk about off-topic! I'll try to bring this around...
When a manufacturer asserts a demand which said manuf. may profit from, granted the goal of any manuf. is to make money, but the manuf. industry is also about service, and satisfying their market, without which the industry would not survive. If you don't want manufacturers to make money, don't buy anything.
Talk to you later, -J.D.
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
A year ago they were fine. Excepting the earthquakes everything has been dandy. There have not been any significant changes to the market place besides steady growth. They had no problems meeting supply a month ago, therefore I would not be surprised if this is just a little exaggerated.
I Have a Warning for Tech Industry (Score:1)
Don't fuck with us. We're not stupid.
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:4)
Yeah, you did. Computers are in *everything* these days. Cell phones, PDAs, pagers, games, notebooks, PCs, etc. have all been selling like hotcakes. Demand for consumer electronics has grown across the board, and component suppliers haven't kept up. Capacitors, RAM, and CPUs have particularly constrained supplies.
Try searching Digi-Key [digikey.com] for a popular capacitor, like the Panasonic ECU-V1H104KBW, a 0.1 microfarad ceramic chip cap. "Quantity Available: 0 - Check Lead Time". Or try to find surface-mount tantalum capacitors in stock. I just tried >50 popular values, and *nothing* was in stock. The handheld electronics people have sucked them all up (cell phone designers in particular like tantalum caps). This isn't a new phenomenon -- I haven't bothered designing a tantalum cap into a board for at least six months, and the situation is only getting worse.
A few months ago, I had to redesign because a Fairchild *transistor* was unavailable. A few square mm of cheap silicon, and even it had constrained supply. <grumble> I'm starting to get bitter about having to redesign circuits because we can't get a particular part. If I find that a cheap resistor is unavailable, I'm gonna cry. ;-)
And just a few days ago, a colleague told me that Atmel AVR processors will be unavailable until the end of the year. It seems one got designed into the PS2. I feel sorry for the poor bastards who bet their products on that device.
Well LCD's maybe, (Score:3)
Pricewatch still sells 64MB of SDRAM for $49. Pretty damn good prices. Usually you see the prices drop before you read an article like this. I don't remember what the prices were like back in February (too much up and down). I don't think comparing today's $8.50 to February's $4.50 is a good example, considering that February was close to an all time low.
I still can't believe this article came out before the prices dropped, so if you do believe the article, go buy your Dimms up today. Or wait through the storm, like I had to late last year ($2.50 + per MB?? ouch)
Oh no?! Does this mean that's Intel dream of RDRAM being the Next Big Thing(tm) will be even MORE expensive? Ha! Bastard hype.
Now LCD displays, that should be interesting. I wonder if these new, sharp TFT displays are eating up resources?
Rader
Re:Whaddaya mean... " *still* use those? " (Score:1)
>(Does anybody *still* use those?)
Where did this come from? The Gameboy family is the #1 gaming system still in popular use today the world over.
Hell, I know sorority girls who wouldn't know a Dreamcast from a NES that have and still play with Gameboys.
Not to mention that Gameboy Advanced still hasn't been released yet.
Re:Whaddaya mean... " *still* use those? " (Score:1)
A little tidbit on the Gameboy advance, in an interview somewhere I heard Nintendo say that it could have released the system already however the gameboy platform is still doing so well they don't want to eat into those profits yet. Therefor they delayed the gameboy advance for year. I wonder if the screens will cause a further delay?
Quotes (Score:3)
"Does anybody still use those?" -- Slashdot reader yankeehack
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:1)
Re:Game boy Advanced... (Score:1)
It's amazing. Low-tech, cheap, not backlit, small - bestselling console in the world.
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
Or perhaps the problem is the enormous number of submissions. "News" for nerds might not involve a balanced selection.
If only we could look at the story queue.
Re:Let's all thank windows for this. (Score:1)
Re:Gas shortage? slap AlGore (Score:2)
We need a corporate pollution tax. This is standard economics. What happens is that companies have to balance costs in order to provide competive products. So balance cost of labour against cost of more efficient manufacturing equipment. Most of these goods are priced by the market, just like the goods the company produces, so everyone wins. The environment is not, so it falls to the government to set the price of pollution.
If the government doesn't set a high enough price for pollution, the correct thing for companies to do is to switch to dirtier, and cheaper production processes.
So with that in mind, environment mania is nothing more than an attempt to correctly price an invaluable resource.
Johan
Re:Game boy Advanced... (Score:1)
Re:Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
That I understand, a little price-gouging is to be expected, however to claim that there is a shortage and that prices will significantly rise now sounds more like an exaggeration(sp) to take advantage of a booming market.
Re:I Have a Warning for Tech Industry (Score:1)
Sanchi
Re:Whaddaya mean... " *still* use those? " (Score:2)
the Game Boy _Advanced_ handheld console isn't out (Score:2)