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Reactions to AOL/Time-Warner Merger
from the biggest-media-company-in-the-entire-solar-system dept.
"There is absolutely nothing in Steve Case's background that suggests he is particularly well-equipped to lead a new kind of unimaginably complex media conglomerate into the 21st century, and Wall Street analysts who are so blinded by the hype surrounding this deal that they fail to consider it carefully are likely to be sorry. Along with some of the other arrogant lynchpins of the digital economy, AOL would rank tops among companies that have routinely exploited and mis-handled their dependent customer bases. Could there be anybody alive in America who hasn't personally experienced or known many people who have personally experienced the interminable cut-offs, waits and disconnections that have, from the first, been a staple of the way American Online has done business? How many times has Steve Case had to go on his own online service to apologize for delays and problems brought about by a company that prized growth well ahead of honesty and service?
"Are consumers really well served when one company controls more content and access than any other company in the world? Is individualism, free expression, diverse opinion advanced when the information economy breaks down into two or three "old and new" media conglomerates that control virtually all of the archived news and entertainment information online, and increasingly, the means to deliver it?"
- Wayne A. Martin, News Manager, Amiga.org:
"Smaller niche websites could be pushed further into the shadows by mega-media companies like AOL/Time Warner that have almost unlimited Internet and television promotion resources they can use to boost their own websites. But on the good side, the merger between AOL and Time Warner seems to go hand-in-hand with AOLs recent deal with Gateway to use Gateway's new Information Appliances based on Amiga technology. This could open the doorway to Information Appliances in the market place a lot quicker than many might have expected. With Gateway, Amino [now Amiga Coporation] and probably others able to produce this type of machine, this could possibly be the fatal blow to MS that many have been waiting for."
Brock Meeks, MSNBC correspondent:
"The bottom line of this proposed deal is nothing more than crass commercialism. What a huge advertising coup this is for Bob Pittman of AOL, he must be drooling at the thought of how to put AOL's nefarious 'pop-up' ads on CNN and print via Time magazine. From a public policy perspective, this venture is D.O.A. as well: no company should be allowed to own the content as well as the conduit. Despite the rosey promises from AOL's Steve Case that 'all comers' will be welcomed to compete on the new venture's cable Internet access system, it remains to be seen just how stalwart Case remains in backing up that promise. Remember, this is the same Steve Case that, under oath during his deposition in the Microsoft antitrust case, swore with a straight face that 'We are not a competitor to Microsoft.'"
David Cassel, Editor, AolWatch Newsletter:
"Here's a reason to fear AOL's control. AOL blocked delivery for the last edition of the AOL Watch newsletter. Did the newsletter's 25,000 AOL subscribers trigger an overzealous spam filter? Or was it that this edition was the first to remind users of the phone number for discontinuing service. (AOL had kicked the ACLU off the service after six years, and there was discussion about cancelling accounts en masse...) Either way, remember: Whoever controls the wires can control the content."
Marty Bass, Morning Edition co-host, WJZ TV (Baltimore):
"I can't imagine that this merger will in any way affect local news gathering or viewing. To duplicate the job we do would require setting up a newsroom. I mean, let's face it; with streaming audio and video you could do a 6 PM News, but this would require a ton of cash, and the local stations already have the major headstart, not only in style but in established viewing. This would be an expensive proposition that would not bear fruit for longer than the 'bean counters' could stand.
"Also lets just say that my station which is a CBS O&O, (CBS already provides news to AOL) put our newscast on-line. Would this change the way our competition does news? No, the primary audience is still watching over breakfast or dinner or in bed at 11. The smaller on-line audience would essentially be getting a big promo for the big shows."
Chris Johnson of airwindows.com:
"What with AOL consuming Time Warner and threatening the stability of the world and all, it seemed to me that it would be good and proper to seek the lighter side of the matter. Here is a short quiz. Identify the proper AOL Spokesmen for the following phrases...
'You've, I say, you've got mail, boy!'
'We are going to buy ICQ because it obstructs our view of Venus!'
'Nnnnyou've got mail, Doc!'
"These are of course restricted to classic WB cartoons. But the fun of it is, AOL now owns most of Western Media! :P - so the field of potential spokesmen is almost infinite!"
Alice Hill, Editor, CNET Online:
"We don't really view either company as a competitor. We did a major deal with AOL in 1999 to provide our content for the computing channels on AOL.com, netcenter.com, compuserve.com and the computing and Internet channels on the subscriber services AOL and CompuServe. Over the past year we have enjoyed the relationship, and the audience. At this point, the notion of adding Time Warner to the mix makes it even better."
Carl Steadman, columnist, The Industry Standard:
"The lesson is clear: send out enough pieces of direct mail and you, too, can own the world."
For links to many more opinions on the AOL/Time-Warner merger, please see this excellent page put together by long-time online writer amd media critic Steve Rhodes.
stock analysts? (Score:2)
AOL + Time Warner = BubbleGum Media (Score:5)
Chances are, AOL is going to "modify" the internet division of Time Warner (Road Runner). What I'M worried about is if they're going to turn RoadRunner into a fast AOL. Think about it....AOL has been plagued by their reputation of having really slow service. Now, if they take RoadRunner, they can truthfully advertise this as "The fastest AOL EVER!", then my interface turns to crap, and I get baby-faced content shoved down my throat.
Not only that, what happens if the rr.com domain is absorbed by AOL.com? That would mean my new E-mail address would end in aol.com opening up the floodgates for spam. This is not what I want.
I am perfectly happy with my current Time Warner RoadRunner service, and I will be very upset if this changes. It may even be enough to force me back to dialup access, as that's the only thing in this price range. And I hate dialup.
Dial-Up is better than AOL, however.
-- Give him Head? Be a Beacon?
AOL's competition should be ecstatic (Score:3)
There's a point where it doesn't make sense to make a corporation any bigger folks. AOL has created a dinosaur. Their competition should find it fairly easy to outflank them now.
Interesting (Score:2)
From the Int.Fed. of Journalists (Score:2)
We now have a company that can deliver CNN to more than a billion people, yet almost half the world's population still have no access to a telephone. The information gap between rich and poor is already intolerable and now may be made much worse with a greater concentration of technology and information resources in rich, northern countries."
Cool!. That means that the propagandistic crap that CNN spews out won't reach the malcontented billions. Could this be the internal contradiction of capitalism that leads to its downfall?
Not to mention that the "democracy" that the IFJ espouses is questionable, what sort of democracy do they want? A large part of the article is a jeremiad against their declining labour conditions. I feel for them, but how many of them are really trying to kick the systems ass? I suspect that much of this sort of moaning is from people that previously felt themselves protected from down-sizing and now realize that it's a bad world that they supported up till now. Aargh...maybe I don't really mean that...things are not going well today.
Re:stock analysts? (Score:2)
Time Warner (TWX) opened Monday just shy of $100. Now, it's around $80.50. Here, nearly a 20% drop in value.
Of course, the two companies have a combined market cap of around $240B, but these are pretty significant losses that are obviously connected to the planned "merger" (read buyout).
Eric
Yes and no (Score:3)
On the other hand, the mere fact that AOL and Time-Warner are major international corporations is grounds enough to examine whether this deal is a good thing or not.
Personally, I wouldn't say AOL are significantly better or worse than any other ISP. I've had no more disconnects the times I've used them than when I've used any number of local ISPs running Windows-based systems.
That's not to say I think AOL should be excused - if Windows doesn't cut it, don't use it! - but rather, they shouldn't be villified as if they were the only ones out there. Plenty of other people pull the same stunts, and deserve to be reprimanded for them.
As for the impact this'll have, honestly I don't see it having any. ISPs will still refuse to support multicasting, IPSec, IPv6 or any other technology that might eat at their profits, through customers getting a better deal. As the current setups are already maxed out, for the most part, precicely because of this attitude, there's not a whole lot AOL or Time-Warner can do to change things.
The most I can really see happening is AOL offering Warner Brother skins for their software, and/or more AOL adverts on the Cartoon Channel. Other than that, there's nothing more that can really be changed.
Concerned.... (Score:5)
This merger may have benefits, but it puts way too much power into one entity.
AOL will do its deed with the media (Score:2)
hehe... when AOL opened the floodgates upon usenet with its uneducated users with a great big post button and buggy software that duplicated sensless one liner comments seven times each into what was a thriving diverse usenet community, it was effectively a denial of service attack. Entire newsgroups were ruined.
I was reading the alt.best.of.usenet or whatever it was called --at the moment they turned on their sewage pipe. Immediately, the newsgroup filled with humorous postings was awash with crap.
You think CNN is bad now, just wait until they monopolize and control all your news feeds with their quick and agressive marketing strategy. With AOL's proven expansion, it seems many news carriers will be gobbled up and you will have one source for your news! Yipieeeee!
Competition for Microsoft? NOT (Score:2)
In truth, they're still in very different markets. With a few exceptions (MSNBC, Slate) Microsoft has tried to steer away from the content markets - they even say so at times, saying that they'll create the tools for other people to create content and view it with. AOL on the otherhand has been chasing the content market without really caring much for the software side of things. So long as it works good enough for their subscribers to log on and access content, that's fine.
Besides which - AOL has no operating system. It runs mainly on windows, with much delayed upgrades to get Mac users up to par with Windows users.
So, regardless - users still need Windows, which only Microsoft can supply at whatever charge they'ed like - AOL is mainly a content company with a very small finger in software, where as Microsoft is a software company that dabbles in content - I can not fathom how Microsoft can say that AOL has created true competition for them.
Yes, it is a little scary to think that way over half of the mainstream news outlets will be controlled by AOL Time-Warner, but it's a different argument completely. But so long as they don't "revamp" their software to interfere with users visiting content sites that aren't controlled by them, I am very hard pressed to see the real "consumer harm" that people mention.
NBC, CBS, CNN etc all basically report the same exact news. You've always had to dig deeper to find the "other" news. Since AOL/Time Warner only serves the mainstream, I doubt it will make much difference to us, even in 5 or 10 years, who owns what, because they're all already the same.
the worst part of this merger... (Score:4)
--t
God its sad what passes for reasoning these days.. (Score:3)
The Katz entry: Are consumers really well served when one company controls more content and access than any other company in the world?
Well, John, hasn't one company or another always been #1?
From Brock Meeks: no company should be allowed to own the content as well as the conduit
Hmmm... guess that puts an end to home delivery of newspapers. And those damn local TV stations better quit doing local newscasts as well.
Chris Johnsons bit: Yeah, real deep and funny..
Why doesn't anyone address the real nice outcome from this merger... open access to cable infrastructure is almost guaranteed thanks to this.
Re:Yes and no (Score:2)
Content, and means of delivery, see?
Pot calling Kettle (Score:2)
Funny comming from a MSNBC correspondent. Isn't NBC doing coverage of the MS trial? Just strikes me as a little glass houseish.
-cpd
Falling market valuations (Score:2)
If AOL backs away (because of dwindling market valuation), they would be forced to pay a $5.37 billion breakup fee (the largest ever), with Time Warner's at $3.9 bilion. The walk away date is May 31, 2001.
Journalism rears its ugly head, of course. (Score:3)
Take a good look at these:
"With Gateway, Amino [now Amiga Coporation] and probably others able to produce this type of machine, this could possibly be the fatal blow to MS that many have been waiting for." -- Wayne A. Martin, News Manager, Amiga.org
"The bottom line of this proposed deal is nothing more than crass commercialism. What a huge advertising coup this is for Bob Pittman of AOL, he must be drooling at the thought of how to put AOL's nefarious 'pop-up' ads on CNN and print via Time magazine."
(and...)
"...no company should be allowed to own the content as well as the conduit." -- Brock Meeks, MSNBC correspondent
"Here's a reason to fear AOL's control. AOL blocked delivery for the last edition of the AOL Watch newsletter." -- David Cassel, Editor, AolWatch Newsletter
"There is absolutely nothing in Steve Case's background that suggests he is particularly well-equipped to lead a new kind of unimaginably complex media conglomerate into the 21st century, and Wall Street analysts who are so blinded by the hype surrounding this deal that they fail to consider it carefully are likely to be sorry."
(and...)
"Is individualism, free expression, diverse opinion advanced when the information economy breaks down into two or three "old and new" media conglomerates that control virtually all of the archived news and entertainment information online, and increasingly, the means to deliver it?" -- Jon Katz, Slashdot Columnist
So in other words, the Amiga guy sees this as a blow to MS in favour of Amiga. The MS-NBC (check those letters closely!) guy figures this is a dangerous and crass example of overcommercialisation. The AOLWatch guy is worried about AOL threatening AOLWatch more effectively. And then there's JonKatz, who rants against any and all big business and asks rhetorical questions in stunningly long, convoluted sentences.
Bottom line, their biases are showing. Painfully.
While it's true that there's no such thing as an unbiased story, it's pretty sad when the so called "journalists" can't even pretend to look at the other side of an issue, let alone attempt to report on it fairly.
Of course, my biases are showing too; I hate bad journalism. Just ask yourself, whenever you read or watch a news story, does the article say more about the story itself or the journalist reporting it?
Re:Interesting (Score:2)
And how exactly are people going to "hear" of those niche sites? CNN has news, why go anywhere else. AOL has already digested this for me, it's feeding time. Want to promote that hot new start-up idea? "Not on my networks you won't." "We have a new media property? Well, spam CNN,CNNSI,SI,AOL,Healine News,(the list goes on for days) and we should get somebody" AOL is already a big believer in the spam approach, they won't stop now that they have even more ears and eyeballs. bah humbug, the whole things just chaps my hide.
The net is the least of my worries (Score:2)
The net's still very wide open, and CNN.com is just as accessable as a small site. But tradtional news media (TV and print) are very hard to break into; if there is one source of control for a large majority of this type of media, the source can easily corrupt, dismiss, and distort the facts.
AOL-Time-Warner spans way too many companies, way too many fields to be considered "for the public good". We're not going to benefit from CNN and AOL being able to cross-promote. Really. It's not going to cut costs, it's not going to increase competition, and neither company is hurting.
And BTW - I think that a reporter for MSNBC really shouldn't be calling this "crass commercialization." It's just a tad hypocritical.
Doones
Amiga comments (Score:5)
While I always enjoy any news related to the Amiga (even with the sad state that it is in), I did find the mention a little bit interesting.
Basically, the Amiga technology has been getting pawned off over the years as "technology which is great, might not be quite what you want for a computer anymore, but would do wonders for set top boxes". I've thought that the set top box is perfect for it. If AOL does have some sort of deal that dribbles down to Amiga Corporation, then this could be a significant opportunity to at least keep the Amiga technology alive.
I've used the digital cable system of Comcast in the northern New Jersey area. It consists of a large pizza box for a tuner with a large (and poorly designed) remote control to drive this thing. There are up to 999 channels (and about 400-500 are actually used), and it has built in television listings and primitive programming capabilities (timers, reminders, etc). Essentially, you're getting some sort of MPEG stream from the cable company, and this box is the decoder (you can see the digital artifacts in the signal; similar to what you see on DVDs). While the idea of the technology is great, I think that the actual "computer" behind the box is rather poor; it seems that most of the computing power is dedicated to the MPEG stream rather than to the controls. This would be an excellent job for the Amiga. I won't say that it couldn't be handled by another technology, but the architecture behind the Amiga is quite well suited for this, and if the "Digital Content Behemoth" (AOL/TW) has some sort of relation to the Amiga technology, then why not use it.
My two cents; no refunds.
--
Ted Turner (Score:2)
This is funny:
Ted Turner has compared his reaction to this deal to the joy he experienced when he lost his virginity
I think I would like this deal better... AOL has decided that Time Warner was worth about 70% more than what the public (the stock market) had deemed fair.
You bet he's selling
But how smart is AOL?
NewHour Interview (Score:2)
I hate to recycle the same old statements... (Score:2)
...because I generally think MSNBC does a fairly good job of presenting things in a unbiased way, with regards to things remotely related to Microsoft, and for that, I applaud them.
Brock Meeks, appears to me to be creeping to the 'dark side' with this one though. He calls it crass commercialism, but I can't be convinced for one second that MSNBC doesn't/wouldn't want to do the same thing. Technology + Media.
At the same time, he throws in same tired argument that this is proof that MS does have competitors. Interesting that a similar statement was just released by MS lawyers in their breakup defense. Would AOL/TW be a competitor to MSNBC? Perhaps... probably. However, a wholly outright coup against Microsoft proper? I still don't see that.
Next, we can remove the crap about owning "the content as well as the conduit" and his groundless worries that Case will leave the open access coalition... and the result is that I find nil worthwhile content in the dude's statement. I dunno. Perhaps I don't have my paranoia filter set to +1. But I can't shake the notion that, this time around, it's the Meeks's corporate interests talking.
Hmmm.... (Score:2)
1) AOL
2) Time
3) Netscape
4) Warner Bros.
5) CNN
6) Road Runner
7) Sports Illustrated
And the whore riding on its back?
Steven Case.... Ted Turner?
:)
Re:How does that follow? (Score:2)
They could do this, but they would get killed by every other cable company in the country, namely AT&T's cable empire.
Re:A good business deal (Score:2)
They were handing the consumer a shovel of manure. The unit worked fine on every TV with an external antenna connection, but I'm damn sure RCA got quite a few new TV purchases out of it.
Re:Falling market valuations (Score:2)
Time-Warner is not always associated with quality in everything they do (many shows on the WB), but Quality is definately one of their product differentiators. People expect CNN to have a fairly objective, high quality set of programming. Time Magazine isn't as well respected as National Geographic, but you are hard pressed to find an older or more widely accepted and known news magazine. Warner Bros pictures have a fairly high standard of quality and is the only longterm mindshare competitor with Disney. Warner Cable is simply what I think of when someone mentions cable. It's brand is associated with Quality, plain and simple.
AOL is NOT associated with Quality. It is good enough and fast enough and cheap. Their operating strategy is Cost and Quantity. Keep prices low and pump out the garbage like there is no tomorrow. This is a perfectly valid approach to business, and there are many companies who use this approach that I do not mind at all. (AOL spams me, so I don't like them.)
When you put these two strategies together, it does not mix well. Either Time-Warner starts shovelling garbage at extreme rates and loses all of its "value", or AOL tries to shape up and loses the only things that were keeping it on top. The few people I know who own Time Warner stock are either dropping it, or waiting to see if the deal goes through before they drop it. When you mix these two companies together, you'll find out that they won't. The smarter analysts on Wall Street have probably thought this out much better and more thoroughly than I have, but they are probably being cautious at best.
B. Elgin
Invalid point... (Score:3)
For instance, newspapers (like Time) usually own and control their own presses. Even when they outsource the actual printing, they still control the content. TV stations, radio stations, and the ilk all operate similarly.
And empires in media is not a new trend either. While this takes it to new heights, the media had already essentially completed its transistion to megacorp long ago. And while most sell their souls, their perspectives, and their opinions, the actual reporters are still people and occasionally do stand up for their beliefs.
The fact of the matter is, if they become too useless people just drop out. Look at newspaper readership in GenXers. Almost none of read the old pulp. I think television news listenership will eventually decline also. Radio may be sustained by commuters, desiring some local info, but as our society globalizes via the Internet, we're losing our local focus.
Why? Because locally we can't find enough similarity of interests. There is not slashdotesque TV station in St. Louis, so I hit the news. Its what I care about, not local schools (I probably should, but I'm single, so I don't).
Things morph, but we're still people. Even megacorps have people (like us) that, in the words of Paul (in the Bible), "fight the good fight".
--Jason
Nobody seems to get it. (Score:5)
While it's easy to see that Company A has such and such a share of some market and Company B has such and such a share of some other related market that company C (=A+B) will have both shares and will be bigger, etc., so company C is "more powerful" (translated "probably going to make more money") companies generally (especially big companies like these) don't undertake these sorts of mergers unless there is a specific reason.
Such reasons are usually of the form "If we do not buy that company then their new product will erode our dominance in market X", "our other competitor is beating us by using their Y technology, we'll buy this third company and get the same technology", "we need to sell product Z to strengthen our core business, and their customer base is the perfect market," etc.
Consider this: Time Warner owns immense amounts of copyrighted content -- music, movies, literature, etc. They are one of the big players in this "lock down the MP3's/mpegs/online distribution"-shove-SDMI-down-your-throat "piracy" (bootlegging?) battle. Nobody in their right mind is going to use SDMI over a free mp3 (or mp3-like) format. Why allow the robber-barons of the content kingdom to extend their outmoded royalty/distribution monopoly? Time/Warner realizes this, and they realize that the only way to keep those $ flowing is to get SDMI (or something very similar) into the hands of the mass consumer. How does one do that? Find a large body of mass consumers and shove it in their faces. Make it easier than the alternative.
The biggest body of captive mass consumers sheepish/idiotic enough to accept that SDMI is an easy way to get their music online is the body of AOL subscribers. While partnering with AOL may do the job, buying them out ensures control over distribution in their medium, and will ensure that no non-SDMI system will appear as an alternative to an AOL subscriber. When the base of 20 million (?) AOLers is locked into SDMI then SDMI becomes a de facto standard. A few years down the road and ideally (for T/W) this will be the case for video content as well. And, the perfect target audience has already been recruited by AOL. Hell, now that they own Netscape, and M$ will play ball they can just put SDMI in the browsers too. "Boss, it's a win-win".
It's Too late.. Domains already taken (Score:3)
Kowai.
Not as significant as it might seem... (Score:2)
----------------
"Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds." - Albert Einstein
I've been thinking about this (Score:2)
The more I think about it, the less I care. AOL is an annoyance, but I *have* to have the bandwidth. If it's a choice between a dial-up and AOL cable access, I'll suck it up and go with AOL every time.
Now, AOL has two choices in this matter.
1) They can leverage my heroine-like addiction to bandwidth, force me to exclusively use the MacOS half of my Mac/LinuxPPC dual-boot, make me give up my IPMasq/Firewall, make my roommate use the Win98 half of his dual boot, and ensure that the instant Southwestern Bell gets the tech to push DSL out to 14000 ft (or 12000 on that damned 26 gauge cable) from the fiber-fed sac boxes rather than the CO, I switch and my bandwidth dollars go to SBC for the foreseeable future, or
2) they can treat me like RoadRunner does now, with no login scripts, no proprietary clients, just a hot IP address at the end of my Cat5, a mere dhcpcd away, and maybe I'll stay for a while.
It's their choice, really.
Don Negro
Re:Yes and no (Score:2)
As a middle-aged U.S. citizen, a trip to Europe really woke me up to the meaning of "British Empire." (also lead me to coin the phrase "Mommie -Dearest Country.")
(let's also be sure to remember what the "A" in "AOL" stands for.)
I appreciate your describing the potential as a "decline from zero," but I think you said it in jest, and I take it more seriously. I believe that, in the U.S., the media are the fourth branch of government (the "official" ones being the Executive (president), Legislative (congress), and Judicial (the Supreme Court).)
In the past few years our media scene has diversified tremendously due to the inexpensive, global communications that the internet provides.
I'm concerned for our democracy when that diversity is threatened my our "Free-market" economy. The trouble is, the free market is not stable, and democracy requires quality in education and communication in order to produce optimal results.
When I see AOL and Time/Warner joining forces, I see the power of the Internet harnessed to provide the benefits of Television. And here, in the USA, the power of Television as a tool for education and communication has never been realized.
The next most popular television show here, after Wrestling (!), is a situation drama about patching up gunshot victims. Not that we care about gunshot victims (the whole world must know by now that these people are a major U.S. industry); it's just that we need that level of sensationalism to attract viewers to the advertising.
Heavens, what if we stopped thinking about the ads and started thinking about the victims? Can't have that. We'd better corral all of those internet subversives and sweep them under a flood of advertising and cheap news bites, before somebody gets civilized.
Let's hear it for responsible journalism! (Score:2)
Report just one side of the conversation. Let your personal biases come between you and the story. That's the path to responsible journalism.
How about reporting the fact that the Chairman of the SEC came out and said that this merger was a good thing? He almost never comments on mergers and buyouts, but he commented on this one, and positively at that.
But I forget, that would conflict with Slashdot's anti-AOL stance.
-Todd
---
What about Winamp? (Score:2)
Re:Pot calling Kettle (Score:2)
-cpd
Re:What about Winamp? (Score:2)
Re:God its sad what passes for reasoning these day (Score:2)
Well, John, hasn't one company or another always been #1?
In content or access, yes. Not both at once; that's the problem. /me takes a deep breath
My God, I'm defending Katz.
From Brock Meeks: no company should be allowed to own the content as well as the conduit
Hmmm... guess that puts an end to home delivery of newspapers. And those damn local TV stations better quit doing local newscasts as well.
Newspapers do not own the streets. TV stations do not own the electromagnetic spectrum.
Again, you're not thinking this through far enough. The difference is that in your examples, content providers do not control the means of distribution, and therefore cannot prevent anyone else from using them.
Whether TWAOL would actually try to do such a thing is of course debatable, but the situation is uncomfortable nonetheless. . SNF .
Steve 'Nephtes' Freeland | Okay, so maybe I'm a tiny itty
A hedge, not a revolution (Score:5)
The most insightful commentary I've seen on the merger so far isn't anything in this article -- it's Robert X. Cringely's [pbs.org] take. Cringely proposes that, rather than seeing the merger as a sign of AOL optimism about its future, it should be seen as a sign of AOL's pessimism, especially regarding the market fortunes of Net companies.
It makes sense when you think about it. AOL stock has gone through the stratosphere based largely on the idea that AOL is a 'pure Internet play'. Buying a big old media company will end this perception and put a drag on the growth of the stock value. So why should AOL buy Time Warner outright, when they could get the same access to TW content through a less formal partnership, while preserving their hyper-performing stock value?
Cringely argues that AOL is betting that being a 'pure Internet play' isn't going to be a huge benefit for much longer -- in fact, it may become a liability if and when the market bubble bursts. If that happens, suddenly the Amazons of the world look like awful investments as their valuations are "corrected". But AOL doesn't look as bad, because it's got real-world value based on its ownership of Time Warner's many established brands, as opposed to the purely theoretical value that many Net companies have. In other words, AOL knows that it's had a terrific run at the tables, and it's cashing out its chips and socking the money into the bank before its streak turns sour. It's buying insurance while it can still afford to. It's turning its virtual wealth, represented by stock valuation (which could disappear overnight if the public mentality changed) into real wealth, in the form of Time Warner's media properties (which will hold value no matter how the winds blow).
Is this the complete rationale behind the merger? Well, probably not. But viewed in this light it sure does look like a vote of no confidence in the Internet Economy on the part of Steve Case & Co.
-- Jason A. Lefkowitz
Re:Hmmm.... (Score:2)
I'd rather see microsoft left alone, and aol split (Score:2)
hehe, but for real. I would rather see microsoft left alone to run business and let the market pick the winners.
But DONT let AOL own what i see on TV, how people access the internet and what people see on the internet!
Don't let anymore "You have new mail" movies, sounds, images, spoofs come out. Dont let AOL get into the long distance business, don't let AOL get access to the miles and miles of fiber in several huge cities around the world.
My god the incompetance is huge, I feel sorry for the people that will pickup the phone and have to hear commercials now, i feel sorry for people trying to watch tv, but have banner adds going across the screen.
Even at the least, the spam, the discs being included in everything, the lack of real media attention, the lack of in depth and technical attention, and the people who provide all these very immature feeling services controlling a vast communications and broadcast system
scarry
Re:Journalism rears its ugly head, of course. (Score:2)
While I'll agree that there's a lot of bad journalism, you're pointing at shadows if you call *this* bias. Bias is ignoring the facts or putting an misleading spin on them.
Re:Interesting (Score:2)
This merger just makes it harder to compete in media content creation and distrubution, much harder.
AOLOSAUR (Score:3)
In the long haul, shareholder managed mediocracies like these will implode. Their urge to command and control the market will win fewer and fewer hearts. More cooperative competitors will route around the sword of the central censor. Wake up and smell the tsunami.
Metcalfe's Law describes exponentially increasing returns as more nodes connect to a network. Hence, AOL MSN etc clobber one another to acquire customers, to aggregate eyeballs, with one simple aim: sell them. Customers defect, exploiting titanic price wars. The price for customer acquisition skyrockets. Investors hoping to cash in on tomorrow's loyal customer might just have their bubble popped one of these days..
Long term loyalty can't be bought. And King Customer grows more powerful by the day. This will profoundly change all business relationships in the free trade of meaningful ideas.
Does a customer's capacity to store information quadruple every three years? Gilder's Law says there will be 27 times more pipe to share information every three years. So in ten years, TiVo nodes might store 75 times more info, but have 60,000 times the capacity to exchange it, and do so transnationally. Try to regulate it. Go ahead, hire more lawyers.
What is the technology telling us? Decentralization is bad news for vertically integrated cash registers. It's good news for reintermediators, and creators who avoid selling ownership out to ubercorps. Great news for chaorganized traders.
Shared ownership in client/server transaction is where it's at. ImagineRadio kinda got it, until they sold out to Viacom. Aolosaurus doesn't get it at all.
Re:Oh great. (Score:2)
Reaction? (Score:2)
scratcha scratcha scratch
(checks watch)
(clicks to refresh Slashdot - no change)
Sigh.
(brightens visible)
(rises from chair and heads to candy/soda machines)
And that's about it for me. Guess I'm too dumb to appreciate the horror!
Think creative (Score:2)
Seems like a logical plan to _me_.
AOL To Go Off-Line Permanently (Score:2)
This brilliant observation by JonKatz highlights the true danger of the AOL/TW merger, and why it should be stopped, by the (comparatively small, obscure, non-pervasive organization known as the) US Government.
The AOL/TW plan is clear. First they'll offer the huge flock of sheep known as "American consumers" cheap access to all that TW content. Next they'll make that exclusive access, so nobody who doesn't use the AOL/TW ISP can see TW content.
Then they'll deliver the final blow: make AOL/TW access so unreliable, so frustrating, that, for most Americans, it'll not be worth even logging on.
By then, we'll be so mass-hypnotized that we'll believe the only real entertainment comes from AOL/TW, so that when The System doesn't work, it'll never occur to us to:
- Turn on the TV (besides, AOL/TW will make sure it works only via their Internet access)
- Turn on the radio (ditto)
- Use another ISP (AOL/TW will make all other ISPs disappear, or at least appear to from the American consciousness)
- Read a newspaper
The end result is that Americans will be completely in the dark about what is going on in their own country, at which point Steve Case et al will use a crack team of hand-picked cyber-terrorists to overthrow the government.All Americans will be shown is that, apparently, our new President is a certain well-known rabbit, and, by then, we'll think that's great, for pretty much the same reasons that people like Donald Trump and Warren Beatty are taken seriously as presidential candidates today: because the media has convinced too many of us they're "cool", which we somehow believe == "intelligent", "capable of leadership", etc.
AOL/TW. The End Is Near. And, by the time it comes, there won't be an NRA-type organization ready to defend your freedom -- the only guns available will be "secured" by high-tech devices that, not coincidentally, get owner-fingerprint-updates from AOL/TW's online database, which'll allow them to disable all guns instantly when The Moment arrives.
(Yes, this is sarcasm. Fearing AOL/TW on the basis of AOL's "service" is like fearing McDonald's replacing all other restaurants on the basis that McBurgers often have insufficient ketchup.)
You're confusing (/.) readers with people who. . (Score:2)
_________________________
Preach on, brutha! (Score:2)
Yeah! Tell it like it is! We all know Rob is the great Satan. He's sold out and joined forces with The Man.
Damn The Man!
Damn The Man!
</SARCASM>
Jeez, people. Lay off the capitalist-pig conspiracy theories.
Re:Journalism rears its ugly head, of course. (Score:3)
Perhaps their biases are showing because I asked all these people to give their *personal opinions" on possible effects of the AOL/TW merger - from their *personal* perspectives.
The AOLWatch guy (surprise!) talks about how AOL censors content. The Amiga.org guy (another big surprise, eh?) talks from the perspective of an Amiga advocate. Alice Hill @ C|Net (gasp!) speaks from the perspective of an editorial honcho for a mainstream online/cable TV news source that already has close ties to AOL. Local TV news guy Marty Bass (I'm going to faint...) discusses how AOL+TW might/might not affect local TV news. And Jon Katz speaks from the viewpoint of (hard to believe)
I hate bad journalism myself. But I also remember that in most people's eyes, "good" journalism is journalism that agrees with their personal biases 100%. And Glub forbid a journalist should have an opinion of his or her own and share it freely with Slashdot readers without getting it cleared and blanded down by a corporate PR department!
Do I sound biased here? Damn right!!!
And proud of it.
- Robin